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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| More on Ivan in Iraq |
| 2004-11-22 |
| New details on a rumor from last week, courtesy IRA Novosti (hat tip to The Argus. According to leaks from Washington, the newspaper [Nezavisimaya Gazeta] writes, Russia has agreed to be involved in the Iraqi campaign in exchange for America recognizing the former Soviet Union as a zone of Russia's vital interests. The scheme of future arms supplies to Iraq has not yet been devised, though. Nor has it been coordinated between key departments. Reckless though it might be, I definitely see the attraction to writing off the former Soviet space, especially after the last month or so (Yanukovich winning/stealing the election in Kiev, the whole Georgia/Abkhazia/South Ossetia mess continuing to fester with no end in sight, ditto for Moldova, the Turkmenbashi's antics, etc. etc.). Just let us keep a couple of "lily-pond" bases in the 'Stans, Vlad, and consider the place yours. Just Ukraine by itself has been a money pit for U.S. taxpayers for thirteen years now, and we have squat to show for it. By all accounts, the place is a lunatic asylum (think Belarus with better P.R.). And if they want to steer back toward Russia anyway, why bother saving them from themselves? |
| Posted by:The Caucasus Nerd |
| #6 I would not be comfortable with anything other than C.O.D., lex. The Soviets were past masters at "pay us to negotiate", and Putin trained up in the old school. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2004-11-22 7:50:20 PM |
| #5 Russia is not the only source in the world for nuclear technology But that's only the tip of the iceberg. If Russian nuclear businessmen are doing legitimate business with Iran, you can be sure that rogue FSB and mafiya elements are not far behind. And yes, Putin does indeed care about winning multi-billion dollar contracts for his nuke industry. Aside from arms and nukes, there simply are no other export-quality Russian manufactured products. Russia has a tiny economy apart from oil and gas, and any increase in nuke or arms business is huge to them. Buy them off. $5B should do the trick. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-11-22 2:23:44 PM |
| #4 Our Russia policy should be geared above all to stop them from doing harm by aiding Iran. I don't think Russia cares, and I wouldn't be concerned about it either. It's just business. Russia is not the only source in the world for nuclear technology. But whether or not Iran is allowed to have nukes is up to the US & Israel to decide. Not Russia's problem. Why not cash in before the door shuts permanently (and before the festivities begin)? Also remember the famed Russian GPS jammers. Great businessmen, those Russians, heh. |
| Posted by: Rafael 2004-11-22 2:18:35 PM |
| #3 Iran and the FSU's stocks of WMD are the key here. Everything else is insignificant by comparison. Our Russia policy should be geared above all to stop them from doing harm by aiding Iran. Achieve that, and halt proliferation, and we're successful. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-11-22 11:32:38 AM |
| #2 I suspect that, if true, this involves a LOT more than Central Asia and Iraq. It would most likely also include the upcoming amusements with Iran, and probably several other situations. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2004-11-22 10:17:00 AM |
| #1 Much of what you say is hard to dispute, Nerd, but I'm puzzled by the narrow facts of the news hook here. There'd be no need for a quid pro quo to have Russia restore some level of commercial arms activity with Iraq. The Russians will sell, the Iraqis will buy using their own $$$. At the very most this would represent a small favor by the US towards Moscow, though possibly not even that. Don't see why there'd be any horse-trading WRT the former Soviet mess, er, empire. I'd say in the longer run it's a vital US interest to keep Ukraine and Russia apart to some extent, though right now that's not vital given Russia's weakness. Apart from that, enough stability (under Moscow's influence or otherwise) to facilitate extraction of energy resources from the Caspian basin is about the only important national interest in the FSU (leaving aside the negative interests, like no proliferation of WMD personnel, materials, or know-how). |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2004-11-22 9:52:29 AM |