The recent announcement by the Lebanese Hezbollah that it has sent a drone on a surveillance mission over Israel can be dismissed as a new propaganda ploy. It is not a military operation of any seriousness. By sending the small plane into their heavily defended airspace Hezbollah has indeed surprised the Israelis, spreading fear and triggering a heated debate in the Israeli media. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrullah, who has repeatedly said Israel's violations of Lebanese airspace would not pass unchallenged, acted on his threats by sending a small plane into Israel's airspace. The drone however suffered a malfunction and crashed while on its way back to Lebanon from its mission inside Israeli.
| Brilliant. Simply brilliant. I'll bet they brought it down with the Zionist Death Ray™. Prob'ly the Mk VIII... |
The question is: Would the launching of a small drone help achieve the balance of power and the deterrence sought by Hezbollah or would it intensify an already unequal battle? Would Lebanon and the region as a whole tolerate any military gamble that Israel may seek to involve everyone in? Israel which possesses the largest fleet of fighter planes in the region would not mind a limited confrontation like this, but would find in a drone capable of flying over Nahariya settlement a source of concern and fear for its citizens. This could be enough excuse for the Israeli government to escalate the situation in the region in order to maintain its military spending at its current levels that faces strong opposition at the Knesset. Israel's military budget is being bitterly attacked by Ariel Sharon's arch rival in the Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is calling for a reduction in military spending by $8 billion on the ground that the budget figures are too inflated and could prove a heavy burden on the Israeli economy.
Has Hezbollah been in possession of a large fleet of fighter jets, pilot-less planes and strong air defenses a confrontation could have been justified. But in dangerous circumstances like those prevailing in the region coupled with the kind of pressure being put on Lebanon and the volatile internal situation in Israel, the situation can get out of hands. Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace for a long time now and under the very nose of the international observation forces. Such violations would not stop without an end to the Lebanese-Syrian conflict with Israel. When Hezbollah says it wants Israel to taste some of its actions by violating a hostile airspace and photographing Israeli settlements, this would definitely inflame the situation. Israel considers full control of its airspace essential for its security. Israel also views violating its airspace a serious matter and an unacceptable threat. Because such a policy has long been enforced on neighboring countries, Tel Avis would view the appearance of a Hezbollah spy plane on its skies enough reason for escalation if indeed it wanted to escalate the situation. |