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| Home Front: Politix |
| Slate's William Saletan Predicts a Tie at 269 Electoral Votes |
| 2004-11-01 |
| Many pollsters believe, based on previous election results, that the president's share of the actual vote does not exceed his vote share in the final pre-election polls. The following table averages Bush's vote share in the most recent polls in states where he is below 50. Theoretically, the further you go down the table, the harder it is for Bush to win the state, given his current vote share. The question is whether he can raise his overall standing enough to win at least 17 electoral votes' worth of states in which he is presently at 47.5 or below. We've calculated how his electoral count will advance tomorrow night if the states fall to him in the order suggested by their vote share averages. Sure enough--though we didn't plan it that way--the dividing line falls between Ohio and Florida. The linked article includes a table and map. |
| Posted by:Mike Sylwester |