There are ominous signs that, far from dying down, the conflicts in the Middle East are set to widen in the coming months, sucking in new actors and posing new threats to the United States and its allies. In the eyes of Arab and Islamic militants, the war against American forces in Iraq and Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation are increasingly seen as one and the same battle.
| Funny thing, that. That's the way it looks from this end, too... |
In the absence of any prospect for peace on either battlefield, alliances are being formed and command structures established which suggest that the struggle is entering a new and more lethal phase. Western intelligence sources report that a new high command is emerging made up of Hizbullah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood (represented in the occupied Palestinian territories by Islamic Jihad); and, last but not least, the Islamic Republic of Iran. The striking features of this alliance are that it bridges the Sunni-Shiite divide and unites Arab nationalists and Islamists in a common cause. As a member of one of these groups put it to me: "There is today no difference between resistance and jihad."
| I never even noticed that there was before... |
Several factors lie behind the new, more organized and determined militancy. First, American backing for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon - for his expansion of Jewish settlements, his separation wall in the West Bank, and his all-out war against the Palestinians - has ruled out any prospect of a peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
| Having Yasser in charge of the Paleostinians was what killed that. You only try for so long. The wall's a tactical fix, not strategic. Yasser decomposing will be a strategic fix... |
The international consensus of a two-state solution seems increasingly unrealistic. As a result, Palestinian moderates have been silenced while the Palestinian Authority has virtually collapsed under Israeli blows and the bitter frustration of a population under siege. The initiative has passed to militants who argue that there is no alternative but armed struggle.
| Which has been Yasser's true position all along... |
The huge sacrifices the Palestinians have endured in their four-year intifada are, paradoxically, seen as arguments for continuing the battle, however long it takes.
| That's Arab logic: if something doesn't work, keep doing it. We have another word for it in the USA... |
Second, in Iraq, American attempts to crush the insurgency by force (there are reports the U.S. is planning an all-out campaign before the end of the year to "clean out" Fallujah and other centers of resistance in preparation for elections in January) are rallying anti-American forces in many parts of the world. For Arab and Islamic militants, Iraq has become a fighting issue and a mobilizing cause as intense as the Palestinian cause itself.
| It has been all along. Sammy's been defeated, but Iraq has become a war between the U.S. and international jihad... |
Third, repeated American and Israeli threats to strike at Iran in order to destroy its alleged nuclear weapons program have also contributed to the hardening mood in that country and in the region.
| I think the nuclear weapons program itself might have something to do with that... |
They have encouraged hardliners in the Iranian regime to act forcefully and preemptively in both Iraq and the Palestinian and Lebanese arenas so as to hold American and Israeli ambitions in check.
| Which has been Iranian policy since Khomeini... |
The victory of the militants was not inevitable. Movements like Hizbullah and Hamas had long been reluctant to act outside their own respective battlefields of Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. They wanted their local grievances to be recognized and addressed. They sought to "engage" the United States and are still hoping for a change in American policy. But American and Israeli insistence to label, denounce and outlaw them as terrorist movements has, in fact, increased their popularity and legitimacy and driven them to seek a wider arena for their actions. |