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| Iraq Going in Right Direction? 51% of Iraqis Said Yes -- 31% No |
| 2004-09-26 |
| From National Review OnLine, an article by James S. Robbins, contributing editor. During Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi's Rose Garden appearance Thursday, President Bush referred to public-opinion polls in Iraq to make a point about how things are going. "I saw a poll that said the right track/wrong track in Iraq was better than here in America," he said, prompting Kerry spokesman Joe Lockhart to claim that the president had become "unhinged from reality." I found Lockhart's comment odd. It strikes me that polling data are a better reflection of conditions on the ground in Iraq than, say, Democratic talking points. Lately I have been looking over the results of two Iraq polls released in July and August, conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Independent Institute for Administrative and Civil Society Studies (IIACCS). They are scientifically conducted polls with large sample sizes and low margins of error. The results are extremely detailed, and fascinating reading. The datum for which the president courted Lockhart's ire was the response to the question, "Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?" In July, 51 percent said right direction, 31 percent said wrong direction. An Annenburg survey from that same period in the United States did in fact show almost the opposite result (37 percent right track, 55 percent wrong track), as the president rightly observed. Thus, contrary to Lockhart's assertion, the president was well grounded in reality, very strongly hinged. Incidentally, of those who said Iraq is on the wrong track, only 5 percent said it is because of unemployment, which tends to undercut John Kerry's model of an insurgency being fuelled by the angry unemployed. He stated Monday that unemployment in Iraq is over 50 percent, and Al Jazeera reported in August that the rate was 70 percent. But polling over the summer showed unemployment typically in the teens. The nationwide figures were 14.1 percent in June, 13.8 percent in July, and just under 12 percent in August. There are of course regional variations; for example unemployment in the southern city of Umara was 35 percent in June (dropping to 25 percent in July) — but in Baghdad the unemployment rate was below the national average (12 percent in June and 9 percent in July). In Najaf the July rate was under 9 percent. Rates that high are nothing to crow about by our standards, but they make more sense than Kerry's inflated figures. Also worthy of note is the finding that average household monthly income increased 72 percent from October 2003 to June 2004, according to surveys conducted by Oxford Research International. Levels of satisfaction in Iraq varied by region. Among the Kurds, 85 percent think life has improved since the fall of Saddam. In the Mid-Euphrates region and the south, 52 percent are more satisfied. In Baghdad there was a three-way split between better, worse, and don't know. And in the Sunni Triangle only 12 percent think things have gotten better, understandable given both the fact that they had enjoyed special privileges under Saddam, and those who are now denied those privileges are making life difficult for everybody. Naturally, the security situation is on people's minds. Around 70 percent of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed with the statements, "Life today is full of uncertainty" and "I am afraid for myself and my family." However, there were similar high scores agreeing to the statement "I am hopeful for the future," and the highest scoring statement of all was "I think things will slowly get better." Responses to these questions showed the same regional dynamics, with the Kurds being the most hopeful, but even in the Sunni areas a plurality (42.5 percent) believed things would get better, against only 29.2 percent thinking they would get worse. When Iraqis were asked what issues concerned them the most, crime ranked as the number one initial response, at 39 percent. The insurgency ranked fifth at only 6 percent. This focus on reducing crime ties in to a general result I noted citing polls in my last NRO piece, that the Iraqi police are the most respected group in the country. There is broad approval (in the 60-percent range across the board) for the government, judges, the police, the army, and national guard. Sixty-two percent rated the interim government as either very or somewhat effective, and sixty-six percent placed Prime Minister Allawi in the same category. The article continues with more results of the poll. |
| Posted by:Mike Sylwester |
| #9 That poll is QUAGMIRE denial BS. Last May, a field poll found 68% Iraqi support for al-Sadr. Bullets are too good for Islamofascists. Anyone with half a brain is reading the CSIS report - "Progress or Peril" - on the QUAGMIRE. If it is beyond any Neo-cunt's perception, I'll help you read it. http://www.csis.org/press/pr04_51.pdf |
| Posted by: Anonymous6334 2004-09-27 6:35:11 AM |
| #8 From the summary: âIraqi optimism and patience have somehow endured. The challenge for U.S. and Iraqi officials alike is to harness and capitalize on Iraqisâ optimism but at the same time not to overstate its significance, because there is a real potential it could swing the other way if events in Iraq continue to trend negatively.â Why would you advise a government not to overstate a positive ideal, especially if it is a known element that could help Iraqis defeat terrorism, even if trends go negative? I haven't read the paper but I suspect it is chock full of academism and supported by liberal concepts, such as "Shhh, don;t tell them they are doing well. They may not be in six months!" |
| Posted by: badanov 2004-09-27 8:14:08 AM |
| #7 A-6334, you are way, way too agitated for 6:35 in the morning. Take your meds. |
| Posted by: Tom 2004-09-27 8:01:13 AM |
| #6 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted] |
| Posted by: Anonymous6334 TROLL 2004-09-27 6:35:11 AM |
| #5 What idiot asked Iraqis how things are going in Iraq? John F'ing Kerry knows better than they do. Though he lives here, and they're actually, you know, there. But what could they know? |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-09-26 11:35:52 PM |
| #4 Smoke the happy flower and practise free love. We need hippies in Iraq to save them from the wrath of "Real Bad Ass Weapons" that will be unleashed upon them if they keep on acting crazy. |
| Posted by: Fawad 2004-09-26 11:00:01 PM |
| #3 Is very strange. I have been in the revenge business so long, now that it's over, I don't know what to do with the rest of my life. |
| Posted by: Inigo Montoya 2004-09-26 10:57:29 PM |
| #2 The 31% need Zoloft. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-09-26 10:47:44 PM |
| #1 Legalize Hashish and Hookers and there will be no more problems. Those people have too many frustrations to focus atleast we can ease some. |
| Posted by: Fawad 2004-09-26 10:44:20 PM |