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Iraq-Jordan
How bad?
2004-09-16
David Warren
The sheer number of terrorist hits in Iraq, and of civilian casualties resulting from them, since the weekend, have raised the question: Are things getting worse? And the disturbing answer is, we don't know whether this is "the grand finale of a fireworks display", or a sustainable escalation.

Given the prior surrender of control over such towns as Fallujah and Samarra, while the main U.S. force was distracted by Moqtada al Sadr's blackshirts in the Shia south, there is an argument for the worst. The terrorists may realize they have open season till the U.S. election is over, for President Bush cannot wish to commit the U.S. military to more fighting, and thus more casualties, at the height of the campaign. Meanwhile, the systematic targeting of Iraqi police academies and policemen is designed to make the country permanently ungovernable, except by the barbaric theocracy the terrorists will impose, if the U.S. cuts and runs.

The Americans have made one big mistake since entering Iraq. It was to make local peace deals in Fallujah, and elsewhere, which left the fox in charge of the hens. The idea was not, however, as stupid as it now looks. It was a risk: that if you put a few old Saddamite officers, and tribal leaders with lapsed Saddamite connexions -- the ones not currently wanted for war crimes -- in charge of a town, they will know how to restore order. They will prevent it from becoming a staging area for terrorist hits elsewhere, because if that happened the Marines would be back. And psychologically, one is likely to earn the gratitude of your erstwhile enemy, if you recruit him when he is expecting to be shot.
Posted by:tipper

#3  I'm thinking "Tet Offensive"; big push for political and publicity reasons; get the fickle American voter depressed before the election, so Flipper gets in - who's already promised to leave Iraq within 4 years - also kill off some of the competing groups by pushing them into heavy loss attacks.
Posted by: Mercutio   2004-09-16 8:03:59 PM  

#2  "Are things getting worse? And the disturbing answer is, we don’t know whether this is "the grand finale of a fireworks display", or a sustainable escalation."

The point is that it doesn’t matter what “phase” we’re in. The US Military (God bless ‘em), and our allies, will continue to kick the asses of these Islamofascist, animal fucks until they’s all dead and rotting.

Mmmm… the sweet stench of dead and rotting Islamofascist , animal fucks…
Posted by: Hyper   2004-09-16 2:21:22 PM  

#1  I like this David Warren guy.
Posted by: Rafael   2004-09-16 12:09:10 PM  

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