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| Caucasus | |
| More ethnic fallout from Beslan | |
| 2004-09-08 | |
| A sequel of sorts to a thread from yesterday. Warning: this article suffers from end-stage Eurasianet Syndrome, complete with linked Rall cartoon, multiple paragraphs of fluff, and a standard call for "nuance" by Putin. But Eurasianet -- bless their pointed heads -- excel at providing local information that few other English-speaking outlets bother to cover. Despite their rampant Ameriphobia, this one strength warrants their continued survival in my Bookmarks list. Case in point: North Ossetians are convinced that the Ingush constituted the bulk of the [Beslan] attackers, a North Ossetian government official told the Russky Kuryer newspaper. "Basically no one in the republic is talking about the Chechens," the newspaper quoted the official as saying. According to Sergei Arutyunov, the head of the Caucasus Department at the Moscow-based Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, "the conflict in the Prigorodny region could resume and this could lead to a huge amount of bloodshed." The Beslan tragedy is also stoking antagonism between Russia and Georgia ... Some hawkish political analysts are urging Russia to get tough with Georgia. One Kremlin-connected observer, Gleb Pavlovsky, who heads the Effective Policy Foundation, told the Russky Zhurnal website; those who planned a terrorist act in Beslan wouldn't have chosen North Ossetia as a target if Saakashvili hadn't "unfrozen the Ossetian issue." In sharp contrast, a significant number of experts are urging the Kremlin to seek an accommodation with Tbilisi on the South Ossetia issue.
For the record, I'm of the latter opinion. Putin needs to take the Transcaucasus out of the equation, and the easiest way is to make nice with Georgia by cutting the strings on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The alternative is putting Georgia on the side of the Muslims. The North Caucasus is going to explode. I sincerely hope that my armchair analysis is dead wrong, but I don't think Russia can dodge the bullet this time. I didn't feel this way about Basayev's lunatic charge into Dagestan back in '99, nor the Theater raid in '02, nor the attack in Nazran back in June. Beslan really was the magic bullet. Can Russian territorial unity survive this? | |
| Posted by:Another Dan |
| #10 One more footnote: In Arabic, the Caucasus mountains are "Jebel al-Alsan," the Mountain[s] of Languages. |
| Posted by: Another Dan 2004-09-08 3:47:35 PM |
| #9 Thanks, LH. B and RN, the confusion is very understandable. Most Ossetians -- including virtually all of them in Georgian South Ossetia -- are Orthodox Christians. For the usual long, complicated reasons, Ossetes are traditionally very loyal to Moscow. Georgians hate Russia, and hence they hate anyone who likes Russia (and are willing to ally with anyone who hates Russia, hence the unfortunate Georgian-Chechen detente in the early 90s). Georgia's Pankisi Gorge is inhabited by a local Chechen community, not Ossetes. It's east of South Ossetia, just over the Georgian border from Chechnya itself. This map may either help or confuse you further. It shows ethnicity/language instead of religion, but suffice to say the following: Russians, Georgians, Ossetians, Greeks are mostly or exclusively Orthodox Christians. Azeris are Shi'a Muslim. Kalmyks (the mauve color at the top) are Lamai Buddhists (no shit, a European Buddhist country). The others are mostly Sunni or Sufi Muslim. As always, there are religious minorities; among the North Ossetians for example, there are some Muslims and even a few old-timer pagans. Yes, it's a bit complicated. |
| Posted by: Another Dan 2004-09-08 3:44:02 PM |
| #8 South Ossetia is a part of Georgia that wants to leave Georgia and go back to Russia. There has been violence, IIUC between the South Ossetians and the govt of Georgia. South Ossetians are mainly christians, as are Georgians. Ossetians=christians. Georgians = christians. Ossetians vs Georgians = Christians vs Christians. OK? |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-09-08 11:14:11 AM |
| #7 Not so sure about the "Christian on Christian" thing. There's tension between the Russians and the Georgians concerning the Pankisi Gorge area and it's being a base for Chechen/Al Qaeda terrorists. The possibility that a chem lab (Ricin) was located there. Although the Georgians claim to have sorted it all out, with the only threat in the region from "criminals". In addition, recent reporting indicates that a new mosque was constructed in the town of Duisi and that "wahhabis" were often guests there. Let's see: Christian = church...Orthodox Catholic = Christian. Mosque = Islam...Wahhabis = Islam. Doesn't compute! |
| Posted by: RN 2004-09-08 11:00:27 AM |
| #6 oops..thanks LH. It's all very confusing. I struggled to even find a decent map of these places on google...which by the way seems to have gone downhill since it's IPO launched. Looks to me like what pops up is whatever paid them the most $$. Boooring and useless. That's another stock I'd dump ...those guys are still living in the 90's era of tech arrogance. I just don't think they will make it. ANONYMOUS - lets just hope that what the KGB created, the KGB can destroy. Think WWII. We don't need to love the Russian KGB to welcome their ability to kill our enemies. |
| Posted by: B 2004-09-08 10:36:48 AM |
| #5 There is some "Dark" justice about Beslan and other terrorist attacks after all. The reckless politics of KGB sponsoring terrorism (Arafat is a KGB creation...) all over the world but mainly in west of the 70's and 80's are exploding in their face pitty that it wasnt Putin and friends that are taking the hit. I hope that nuclear help they are giving to Iran will explode in their face first...Russians werent so stupid.... I dont think so Dan . Problem with Russians is the old loyalities of KGB (including Putin) with Arab countries and Persia. Lots of armements contracts go to arabs. Of course they could expand assassinations like the recent one in Emirates. But this is people of KGB to that to change it will be the end of last 50years Russian policy i dont think it will happen after all Beslan was in Ossetia not near power center adding that civilian population is historically not much more than meat for the Kremlin. |
| Posted by: Anonymous6361 2004-09-08 10:30:14 AM |
| #4 B - AD isnt suggesting a deal with the Chechens, or even the Ingush but with the Georgians. The Georgian-Ossetian thing is Christian on Christian. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-09-08 10:28:42 AM |
| #3 growler - agreed. Thanks AD. |
| Posted by: B 2004-09-08 10:27:39 AM |
| #2 Whether AD's analysis is right or wrong, I'd like to say thanks for linking to stuff about a very confused region, which provides far deeper understanding than anything I've seen in the American media. I had only the sketchiest bit of knowledge until yesterday's thread. |
| Posted by: growler 2004-09-08 10:20:33 AM |
| #1 Another Dan, your point has real merit, but I'm not sure I agree. To cave now would be to embolden the terrorists further. It's easy to see why they paired with Israel. Expect some key hits very soon. |
| Posted by: B 2004-09-08 9:06:07 AM |
