EFL
Of the 18 presidential candidates, the current interim incumbent, Hamid Karzai, is the strongest. He is Pashtun, the dominant ethnic grouping, and favored by both Islamabad and Washington, the latter having handpicked him in the first place. But in the important Pashtun belt on the border with Pakistan, anti-US sentiment is running high, making Karzai vulnerable to his main rival, Yunus Qanooni. Qanooni hails from the minority Tajik community, and is backed by Iran, Russia and India. He is a former education minister and a member of the Jamiat-i-Islami led by the influential Professor Buhanuddin Rabbani and is believed to have a strong voter bank in the heartlands - Takhar, Panjsher and Badakshan, apart from approximately 800,000 Afghan refugees in Iran who are eligible to vote. He also has some support in the predominantly Pashtun belt where the Jamiat-i-Islami has footholds, such as in Jalalabad, Kabul and Logar. Qanooni is viewed as an Islamist and anti-US.
Karzai's vulnerability is compounded by the Taliban (defined by the US as "bad" Taliban as opposed to "good" ones ) calling for a boycott of the elections. The Taliban movement still holds massive appeal for the Pashtun population in east and southeastern Afghanistan, especially in Khost, Paktia, Paktika, Kunar, Zabul, Oruzgan and Kandahar. Initially, the majority of the Afghan adult population refused to register for the polls. The government then issued special cards to those who did register, and these cards are a virtual prerequisite for being a "national". People are stopped at bus stops and check points and forced to produce the registration cards, or else face harassment. Registration figures shot up as a result. However, in places like Zabul and Hilmand, the Taliban often besiege areas and beat up people found with cards. In addition to approximately 10 million voters in Afghanistan, about 1.5 million in refugee camps in Pakistan can also vote. The Taliban have already distributed warning leaflets in these camps that those found voting will have their homes demolished. Some independent clerics are also preaching to discourage females from voting. This trend also exists in the Pashtun belt. |