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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Does Iran want another Lebanon |
| 2004-09-08 |
| After the peaceful end to the military standoff in Najaf last month, many Iraqis and Americans hoped that the conflict between the Iraqi interim government and the young cleric Moktada al-Sadr had been resolved, and that Mr. Sadr's men would go back to their normal lives. The heavy fighting that erupted in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City yesterday showed that nothing could have been further from the truth. News reports suggest that rather than dispersing, Mr. Sadr's followers have simply returned home to carry on the fight. Thus the fundamental weakness of the Najaf peace deal - allowing Mr. Sadr's army to keep its weapons - has finally been exposed, raising the question of what role the militia will play in a future Iraq. While some now argue that the group will embark on a brutal campaign of guerrilla warfare, posing a permanent threat to the stability of whatever government emerges in Baghdad, others believe that Mr. Sadr's latest insurgency is part of a strategy to secure a prominent place at the negotiating table, paving the way for the militia's eventual conversion into a normal political party. Surprisingly little attention has yet been given to a third, more worrisome, possibility: the transformation of Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army into an Iraqi version of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Hezbollah occupies a prominent position in the terrorist universe because it found a unique way of combining political restraint with militancy. It emerged in the wake of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. While formally committed to creating an Islamic republic, the group quickly realized that a religiously motivated campaign of terrorism would fail to achieve any political ends in multiethnic Lebanon. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #9 Vvvvvvverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyy Interesting Point. Well done! |
| Posted by: RN 2004-09-08 12:39:30 PM |
| #8 RN, why would the message be any different if Bush loses the election? As a lame duck, he doesn't have to keep opponents back home happy, and Kerry would have to deal with the long term consequences. Think of it as the Bush version of stealing all the "w" keys from the typewriters ;-) Oh yes, and setting himself up for a win against Hillary Clinton in 2008. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2004-09-08 12:37:14 PM |
| #7 Well, if Kerry gets elected, I guess they can. With a Kerry presidency, one good boom against our forces should do it. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-09-08 10:03:25 AM |
| #6 "I had a dream!" President Bush, the day before election day, has Colin Powell send a message to Syria, Iran and Lebanon. It basically sez: "Pay close attention to election day returns. As it becomes obvious President Bush will have a second term, and with every state reporting in, U.S. and coalition troops will be moving closer to your borders, B-1 and B-2 bombers will approach your airspace and prepositioned SF personnel will close on key terrorist related locations.You have until the polls close and the final tally is in, to remove all terrorists, their offices and training bases from your country. To dismantle any facility capable of producing WMD. If this is not done, the very next morning, you will receive the full might of our combined armed forces. And your world will never be the same. Have a nice day!" |
| Posted by: RN 2004-09-08 8:33:13 AM |
| #5 Difference this time is that the US will not bail out after terr bombing like we did in Lebanon - one of Reagan's few mistakes. Iran thinks it can replay the same script. Well, if Kerry gets elected, I guess they can. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2004-09-08 3:20:06 AM |
| #4 How much more likely is it, then, that elements of the Russian military or the KGB, acting in secret and on their own authority, could gain control of one or more nuclear weapons and use them to avenge the Beslen atrocity? Equally likely is rogue FSB and mafiya elements-- slim difference in the FSU-- gaining control of nukes and slipping them for cash to members of the Dr Khan network. Which means they sooner or later wind up in the hands of the mullahs or AQ or Hezbollah. If Russia fails, we fail. Putin's speech made me think of 1905: finally, an admission of the rot within the Russian state and the desperate need to reverse its criminalization, demoralization, and enfeeblement. Pakistan north. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-09-08 1:53:58 AM |
| #3 hey anon - you beat me to the punch! |
| Posted by: B 2004-09-08 1:30:23 AM |
| #2 Many good points - but I take issue with this idea: While it may be that "Hezbollah occupies a prominent position in the terrorist universe because it found a unique way of combining political restraint with militancy." It is IMHO a real stretch to think that Mookie Sadr has a drop of political restraint in his uneducated little body. The guy is just a thug. While I agree with the overall premise of this article - I think there is a good bit of wishful thinking in this, that Sadr has more influence to create a quagmire than he really possesses. Why else would this article find itself printed in the NYT? And secondly, I take issue with the idea that it was some sort of long term goal by Iran to use Sadr as a means to the political bargaining table. I think Iran mistakenly thought that they could use Sadr to start a Shia civil war. Having failed, Iran (and the NYT) is hoping that they can recreate a Hezbollah. Maybe - but it's unlikely that Sadr has what it takes to pull it off. Again, my point is NOT to dispute this idea that Iran will attempt to recreate the Mahdi Army into Hezbollah - but I detect a strong whiff of hoping for a "quagmire" i, what has so far been little more than the unsuccessful hostage taking of the Najaf mosque. |
| Posted by: B 2004-09-08 1:29:46 AM |
| #1 More from the NY Slimes. I don't imagine anyone thought that the al-Sadr thugs would simply become common citizens. But it appears they are no longer hiding at the Shrine of Imam Ali. Iraq is not Lebanon, and no one expects al-Sadr to form a political party. |
| Posted by: Anonymous6339 2004-09-08 1:24:50 AM |