You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
Submit your comments on this article
Russia
Putin Plan Not Stopping Chechen Bloodshed
2004-09-02
By JIM HEINTZ, Associated Press Writer
Wed Sep 1, 4:22 PM ET
MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin's rise was powered largely by a pledge to take down Chechen separatists. Yet the rebels are still killing Russian soldiers and appear increasingly bold in spilling civilian blood — blamed for three dramatic attacks in little over a week. His refusal to negotiate with the rebels and his rhetoric on wiping them out suggests he's leaving little room to maneuver.
This article neglects to mention how the fight against terrorism is also "leaving little room to maneuver."
A campaign to win an overwhelming military victory in Chechnya appears remote as well. The 20-month war against the separatists in 1994-96 showed that the Russian army, underfunded and plagued by low morale, was ultimately not effective against a small but motivated terrorist guerrilla force. And granting the terrorists' rebels' demand for independence would fly in the face of a decade of firm official statements that Chechnya is an integral part of Russia. Chechens have shown the strongest resistance to Moscow's rule, but officials fear that releasing the mountainous region could open the door to other secessionist movements in the sprawling, diverse nation. BGO (Blinding Gimpse of the Obvious) Instead, Putin appears committed to his strategy of a massive military presence in the republic combined with what appear to be token efforts to restore a measure of civil society. It's an approach that has brought little success.
Much like most non-nuclear approaches to fighting terrorism.
Terrorists Militants with Chechen terrorist rebel ties are being blamed for bringing down two planes last week, staging a suicide bombing at a Moscow subway station on Tuesday and seizing a school full of children Wednesday in a region that borders Chechnya. But with firm control over the media, parliament and security, Putin will likely weather the storm. Although Russians have a tremendous desire to be rid of the Chechnya imbroglio, most also harbor inherent admiration for Putin's tough persona, great anger against the Chechens and a deep-rooted fear of any further dissolution of their sprawling but weakened empire. In nearly five years in power, Putin has survived an array of disasters and embarrassments.

When a nuclear submarine that was the pride of the Russian fleet blew up and plunged to the bottom of the sea four years ago, killing 118 sailors trapped inside, Putin was widely criticized for his slow and seemingly hesitant public response, but he recovered quickly. Western governments and businessmen have criticized Russia's moves to rein in independent-minded TV stations and recent legal pressure on Yukos, the country's major oil producer, but investors remain eager to tap Russia's vast markets and Putin maintains good relations with Western leaders. In the midst of the hostage crisis, President Bush called Putin and said the United States is prepared to give any help needed to resolve the situation, the Kremlin said, emphasizing the United States and Russia are maybe, just maybe fighting international terrorism shoulder-to-shoulder.
Any real US-Russia cooperation hinges upon Putin abandoning all further assistance of Iran's nuclear program. Until then, it's all Russian window dressing.
The U.N. Security Council scheduled a twelve course haute cuisine dinner with vintage wines before any consultations on the school seizure, stepping up pressure on the terrorists hostage-takers and demonstrating a united front behind Putin. "This same strategy sure is working in Sudan!" Perhaps the most dismal moment for Putin was when Chechen terrorists rebels raided a Moscow theater and took about 800 people hostage in 2002. In a police raid, all 41 terrorists attackers were shot and 129 hostages died — most of them succumbing to a knockout gas that was never identified. Putin fended off potential criticism then with an unusual move for a Russian leader — he went on national television and said simply "Forgive us." If anything, that raid and its tragic denouement strengthened Putin's refusal to negotiate and his efforts to portray rebels as bloodthirsty and beyond reason.
Which is as it should be.
The past week's paroxysm of violence could have the same effect, even though the explosions and attacks contradict official claims that the terrorists rebels are weakening and Chechnya stabilizing. On Sunday Chechens elected a new Kremlin-backed president in the republic, top police official Alu Alkhanov, a development hailed by Putin but ridiculed by opponents who claimed vote-rigging. When the dust settles, analysts say Putin's popularity could in fact increase. But with the violence spreading to Moscow and the nation's skies, many are worrying about their vulnerability. Many Russians dismiss officials' talk of increasing security after terrorist attacks — which continue despite the pledges — and few signs of tightened security have been visible this week, despite the attacks. With three years to go in his second term, and having declared he doesn't want a third term, Putin is not under political pressure to cater to voters. The main pro-Putin party, which loyally follows his directives, also has a crushing majority in parliament — where many lawmakers of other parties take an ever harder line on Chechnya than Putin.
Until Putin stops facilitating Iranian dreams of regional domination, he's pissing up a rope. The hostage crisis is one of his own making.
Posted by:Zenster

#6  I don't have any interesting predictions: I don't believe that it would affect the Russian-Iranian relationship much. It's based on profit after all, not on ideals. (And I believe the Iranians have been careful not to support the Chechens so far).

As for the hostage crisis itself, well since the Russians abandoning the whole of Chechenya because of this seems rather implausible, I imagine it would end in bloody massacre with all the terrorists and dozens of children being killed. I hope I'm wrong on this.

On the longer term, I imagine that Putin and Russian media might use this North Ossetian tragedy to encourage acting to save *South* Ossetia from a Georgian-Chechen presumed alliance.
Posted by: Aris Katsaris   2004-09-02 10:03:46 PM  

#5  Aris, you've been calling the cards on Putin's plays very well. What do you forecast for the schoolchildren hostage crisis and, moreover, how this (if it does at all) will or should affect Russian-Iranian nuclear cooperation?
Posted by: Zenster   2004-09-02 8:31:05 PM  

#4  EUrabians=those EU members that opposed the US liberation of Iraq (notably Fwance, Germany, Belgium). Also those that took the chamberlain exception in the course of affairs later on, like Al Andalus (former Spain).
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-02 7:48:58 PM  

#3  Given how more EU members supported the US in the war on Iraq than opposed it, what *exactly* do you mean by "EUrabians"?
Posted by: Aris Katsaris   2004-09-02 7:43:30 PM  

#2  Folks, if Russia blows up, we're screwed. Former SU nukes will be on suitcases faster than you can wire money from Paris to Dubai.

BTW, "blowing up" means a collapse of the central Russian state and dissolution of Russia into one island of western prosperity (aka Moscow) surrounded by various mafiya/FSB/governor-bandit fiefdoms and a Chinese proxy in the Far East.

Time for us to get serious about intensive cooperation to Putin to help him fix that toxic waste zone that is the Russian military in exchange for an end to Russian support for Iran's nuke program and a massive increase in US trade and investment into the Russian oil industry. France and Russia are both trying to balance us and the muslims. But whereas France is not an ally, never will be, and is already gone over to the EUrabians, Russia can be transformed into a friendly rival given the right diplomacy.

New Entente: US + Israel + India + Turkey + Russia. Dream it, believe it, make it happen.
Posted by: lex   2004-09-02 5:50:13 PM  

#1  Poking a stick in the eye of the Russian state has always been a very bad idea, leading to massive death and destruction for the eye-poker as a general rule. Since Peter the Great, at least, and quite possibly long before that...
Posted by: mojo   2004-09-02 5:44:07 PM  

00:00