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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| Afghan voting number puzzle |
| 2004-08-27 |
| On 17 August, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan reported to the Security Council that the high rate of voter registration - more than 9.9m already enrolled - showed the political isolation of groups responsible for violence. What he did not mention was that the number registered already exceeds the estimated total of eligible voters for the whole country. Originally UN officials estimated there were 9.8m eligible adults, and as the percentage registered climbed ever higher, the Afghan government and US leaders loudly praised this as an achievement for democracy. When the total reached 9.9m UN officials in Kabul hastily upped the estimated total of voters to 10.5 million, arguing that, with no accurate census, the original figure could be up to a million out - due to the effects of war, civil strife and mass migration. But the figure is still increasing. UN Kabul spokesman Manoel de Almeida e Silva, said on 23 August that the total after registration was more than 10.35m, and data was expected to continue arriving for at least a couple of weeks. Only a little arithmetic shows the figures are dubious. Only 42% of those registered are women. That means some 750,000 women are not registered. The shortfall of women means the only way the 10m-plus figure for registered voters can be accurate is if every single male in the country has registered - at least once. And that ignores an estimated one third of a million unregistered people in conflict-ridden parts of the south and south-east of Afghanistan. So it is painfully evident that the registration process has been seriously flawed. There are constant reports of individuals brandishing two or more voting cards, usually announcing they have acquired extra ones as an investment. One tale - unconfirmed - even has a woman claiming to have gained 40 voting cards by turning up repeatedly for registration with her identity concealed under an all-enveloping burqa. In the mujahideen-dominated Panjshir Valley, the number of cards issued is two and a half times the estimated number of voters. Mr de Almeida de Silva admitted there had been multiple registering, but argued that many countries had problems with first-time elections. The pity is that there obviously is much enthusiasm for elections among the population at large. But there needs to be rigorous examination of voter registration plus stringent controls at the 5,000 polling centres - otherwise an election which probably will be a genuine achievement for democracy could be marred by serious fraud. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |
| #9 I also suspect that the number of refugees *returning* to Afghanistan is grossly underestimated. What count will you get from Iran? Tajikistan? Turkmenistan? Even China? The massive exodus during the Russian invasion and the Taliban murderocracy must have been huge. On a final note, I bet the only refugees noted were Pushtuns returning from Pakistan to the south. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2004-08-27 11:40:14 AM |
| #8 Wow! De, you blew me out of the water! I admit defeat. I was wrong apparently. I could've swore I remember hearing about a high disproportionality of men to women in Afghanistan & Pakistan, though. The C.I.A. has been wrong before though (bombing of Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, etc.) |
| Posted by: Kentucky Beef 2004-08-27 11:40:03 AM |
| #7 From Ed's figures, if we take 90% of the 15-64 group (to exclude the 15 - 17 year olds), and all of the over 64 group, we have approximately 14.2 million eligible voters. If 10.5 million register, that's excellent, that's ~75% of all potential voters. I'm sorry, what was the UN's problem again? |
| Posted by: Steve White 2004-08-27 11:10:44 AM |
| #6 India and China both have a deficit of 50 million girls and a lot of frustrated men with no chance of marriage and families. Sounds like a liberal's constituency. :oD |
| Posted by: badanov 2004-08-27 10:38:53 AM |
| #5 Vote early and vote often. Democracy at it's finest. These folks learn fast. |
| Posted by: Richard Daley 2004-08-27 10:36:57 AM |
| #4 From the CIA World FActbook: Population: 28,513,677 (July 2004 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 44.7% (male 6,525,929; female 6,222,497) 15-64 years: 52.9% (male 7,733,707; female 7,346,226) 65 years and over: 2.4% (male 334,427; female 350,891) (2004 est.) Median age: 17.5 years Population growth rate: 4.92% Males are 51.3% of the population in the 15-64 age group. I would have thought there would be fewer men since the wars the last 30 years have probably killed near 2 million (my guess). What is surprising is just how young and fast growing the population is. Infanticide has always been prevalent in Asia, but now ultrasound and abortions have made getting rid of girls much easier. India and China both have a deficit of 50 million girls and a lot of frustrated men with no chance of marriage and families. |
| Posted by: ed 2004-08-27 10:17:48 AM |
| #3 Just a guess but: honor killings? |
| Posted by: eLarson 2004-08-27 10:04:19 AM |
| #2 This guy is ignorant of an important demographic reality in Pakistan & Afghanistan; the fact that there is a disproportionate number of males compared to females. I read about this phenomenom pre-911. I do not remember why it is, but there is like a 60-40 ratio of men to women in Pakistan & Afghanistan. Can anyone shed any light on why this is? |
| Posted by: Kentucky Beef 2004-08-27 9:59:08 AM |
| #1 Thats why you use indeleble ink on their fingers once they vote. God some people get all excited about nothing. I gave up along time ago expecting muslims to be honest. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-08-27 7:36:03 AM |