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| Oil Prices Keep Climbing Past $46! |
| 2004-08-13 |
| (Soon $50! ...then even $60 or higher, contingent on numerous factors such as supply shortfalls caused by Islamic sabotage, possible civil disorder in OPEC's Venezuela, the upcoming winter season, plus over the next couple of months damage to Gulf of Mexico oil rigs due to tropical storms and of course energy trader speculation will jack up prices...and drop them as well. For commodity traders recall this, what climbs this quickly, falls twice as fast. Keep those protective puts in place!) ============================================================== SINGAPORE, Aug 13, 2004 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Oil prices kept climbing past $46 in intraday trading Friday on concerns about vulnerable and stretched supplies. Energy analysts said the uncertainty could be adding as much as $8 a barrel to prices, pointing to a continuing insurgency in U.S.-occupied Iraq, suspicions terrorists could again strike Saudi Arabia's production facilities, and unrest elsewhere. Crude oil for September delivery rose 60 cents to $46.10 a barrel in afternoon trading Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, past the fresh record struck Thursday of $45.50. September Brent crude surged $1.16 to $43.45 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange. The previous day's record high - not adjusted for inflation - was $42.29. "The sentiment in the market is that there are more bad things going to happen to the market than good things," said Sam Dale, bureau chief at Energy Intelligence in Singapore. "By 'bad things' we mean supply restrictions: Speculators are looking at things like an attack on Saudi Arabia, more disruption of exports from Iraq, civil unrest in Nigeria, strikes and civil unrest in Venezuela," Dale added. Also, Russian oil giant Yukos is locked in a battle against bankruptcy in that country's courts over a disputed $3.5 billion back-tax bill. "If any of those (bad events) happen, they take crude off the market," said Dale. "The problem with that is ... where is the extra oil going to come from?" Oil prices have risen about 3.5 percent over the past week, pushing to a series of new highs. However, when adjusted for inflation, oil still costs about $12 a barrel less than it did leading up to the first Gulf war. Heavy fighting in southern Iraq renewed fears of a disruption of Iraq's vital oil supplies, and traders said the tense situation would help keep crude prices high. Iraq exports 1.7 million barrels a day of oil, or about 2 percent of daily global consumption. U.S. and Iraqi forces pressed on Friday with an offensive on the Iraqi city of Najaf to quell an uprising by militiamen loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr loyalists have threatened to blow up oil pipelines and port infrastructure if an offensive is launched on the city's Imam Ali shrine. |
| Posted by:Mark Espinola |
| #15 Mark, I used to read an on-line column by Gustavo Coronel. He is harder to read than the guys at vCrisis but he used to be an official at PDSVA. He wrote a while back that the replacement workers that Chavez has employed (surely some Cubans) have hurt quality enough that some shipments of refined products have been rejected. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2004-08-14 12:18:19 AM |
| #14 Super & .com ...thanks for the Citco info and the other oil data. The grade of crude oil the very anti-American Chavez controls is perfect for the various types of unleaded gas, plus the fact exporting crude product from northen Venezuela is rather close in terms of supertanker travel to the port of Miami & other Florida ports. (Although most of Florida is a mess after Charley stormed through.) One point to recall. Mr Chavez was friends with Saddam and remains very close to Castro. He also works with a number of radical Islamist groups for the sole reason they, like him, hate U.S. The sooner this over stuffed commie schlub is gone the better for all concerned. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-08-14 12:08:57 AM |
| #13 Last number I saw was that Venezuelan provides 15% of US supply - it'll hit us for sure - we weened ourselves of ME crude only to get Chavez. Sigh. Mebbe he'll get tossed - of course it will be messy, since he doesn't give a damn about democracy or Venezuela. I hope they have the stones to do it and to make this a hallmark in their history. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-08-13 10:57:38 PM |
| #12 Mark, I think we are going to see a price spike from the Venezuelan situation. I beleive that Citgo is 100% Venezuelan crude. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2004-08-13 10:49:25 PM |
| #11 Lets keep buying allah oil and putting some in the reserve... keep doing this and in 20 yrs the US is the producer of last resort. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-08-13 7:32:02 PM |
| #10 the higher the price goes up and the longer it stays up, the sooner we will find better sources. Supply and Demand...babee |
| Posted by: B 2004-08-13 7:29:28 PM |
| #9 GM Diesel Cars = LOL ... nuff said! |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-08-13 7:13:38 PM |
| #8 As one who trades oil, etc, I agree with the comments concerning 'oil depletion allowance comment, plus hanging on to our 'Strategic Reserves' since we may 'really' need them in times of 'real' shortages. It's true gas station prices are holding steady...for now. If the price of crude holds firm in the mid to high $40's that will not be the case. The real question is are we heading into a petrol-inflationary-spiral if prices remain in the $40's or low $50's per gallon? America has already experienced this type of hyper-oil-inflation in 1973-4 & again when Iran was turned over to raving fanatics the first month of 1979? Back in the dark economic days of the Carter era the Fed ran amuck with horrific interest rates and banks were charging 20% or more. Even though crude oil prices are greatly elevated, up over $15.00 per barrel at the current level of over $45, from the post-Saddam period of mid-2003 which saw crude oil plunge back into high $20's , from high $30's with perceptions of shortages from Russia, possibilities of oil shortfalls from chaotic Venezuela, an OPEC member, or dangerous Arabia or Nigeria another OPEC member . Of course Iraq has been exporting it's crude but Iranian backed terrorists continue blowing up Iraqi pipelines, which is by and large factored into market prices already..unless the damage becomes extremely broad based. A real global petroleum shortage would be if al-Qa'ida terrorists we to breach Saudi security and sabotage it's main pipelines to the Gulf and or blow up oil storage tanks. Even though damage could be corrected quickly it's the perceptions which translate into heavy buying (or selling) to lock in prices, on not only the commodity markets, but the stock, currency & bond makets as well. About a week prior to the Labor Day (end of summer) holiday I expect gasoline prices to climb another 5 to 7 cents a gallon which is typical. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-08-13 7:10:46 PM |
| #7 1970's redux. Been there. Done that. Learned nothing. ________GM Diesel Cars, anyone? |
| Posted by: borgboy2001 2004-08-13 6:32:24 PM |
| #6 Roger that B*A*R, finally getting stations offering below $2 a gallon.. Quite an imrovement. Even then, I'd still like to see the mullahs get their surprise. |
| Posted by: Rex Mundi 2004-08-13 6:29:01 PM |
| #5 Gas prices are still holding steady here. Usually they go up on a minutes notice, and trickle down. As a matter of fact, they've been on a rather slow downward trend over the past couple of weeks. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-08-13 6:16:01 PM |
| #4 I would suggest that we hang onto the Strategic Reserves. I have 2 reasons to offer: 1) it's not there just to play extremely short-term political games (and I want Bush to win an much as anyone) - recall 1973 and look ahead at our growing divide with SA and total adversarial situation with Iran 2) if/when action is taken against the Mad Mullahs we will need it as a bridge during the market melee that will ensue Will Bush give the Mad Mullahs an October Surprise, as some have speculated? I don't know, but if it looks like he'll lose, I sure as hell hope so. If Kerry wins, expect all sorts of stupid, confused, absurdly nuanced policy decisions. And nothing substantial in the WoT or economic stability for at least a year. I figure it will set us back a decade, before we get back on track with the only strategic plan that makes any fucking sense at all in the current world (not the permanently 1969 world of the loonies): the Bush Doctrine. Just my $0.02. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-08-13 5:55:43 PM |
| #3 How about reinstituting the oil depletion allowance for domestic producers in the tax code again?!? |
| Posted by: GreatestJeneration 2004-08-13 5:54:15 PM |
| #2 Over $3.00 a gallon and the GOP is going to have to come up with counter measures to clam Kerry up. One method removing the oil card away from the Kerry crowd would be releasing our strategic petroleum reserves, which technical should only done in extreme emergencies, not to simply lower prices which have been driven up of the most part by corporate oil traders, attempting to lock in 'lower' prices for the winter of 2004-5. I agree that drilling in Alaska would be the logical thing to undertake, but when it comes to the power hungry Dems, we are not dealing with anything close to logic. I do not like to even state this but..unleaded gas prices of well over $3.00 per gallon could very well transpire if things get out of control overseas. The Islamic enemy is cognizant of oil being a very soft target with dramatic damaging effects to the American & global interlinked economy. Heating oil & propane should also be viewed at current levels as possible being 'cheap' because if we have a rough winter plus broad based sabotage, in retrospect today's price levels will indeed seem 'cheap'. Contingent of the price trending of the entire energy complex over the coming months, the likelihood of at least another 15% to 25% increase is strong. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-08-13 5:42:32 PM |
| #1 If we can get beyond the Dem asshats, we would be able to drill, not only in ANWR and the petroleum reserve near Barrow, Alaska, but many places in the states. The Republicans need to hammer the dems on this. Put them on the defensive. The dems will say that the extra production would be insignificant, BS. Everything is significant, esp with people talking about |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-08-13 5:21:59 PM |