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Home Front: WoT
Today's Lileks Moment
2004-07-09
Related note: I wonder what’s keeping Israel from taking out Iran’s nuclear bomb-making plants. Either they know it’s too late, or they know the facilities can’t be destroyed by the conventional means, or they have good enough intel to know there’s still some time and they can wait until after the election. And then they’ll go no matter who wins. If they attack now, and Bush gives them the thumbs-up, it could cut either way domestically. Kerry would have to approve or disapprove, for example. I would guess the latter, lest he want to make the UN and the IAEA look like the dithering fools they are. If Kerry approves, then he’s thrown his lot in with the cowboy-unilateralist axis, and if people want that they’ll vote for the genuine article. The far-left fringe will howl that this is all a Zionist plot to influence the election. The far-right fringe will howl that this is all a Zionist plot to influence the election. Most Americans would look at satellite photos of demolished nuke-bomb factories and think: good thing.

We’ll see. When it comes to Iran, I fear that either the bombs get bombed or the bombs get used. The latter is what I always thought would be the end result of the forces set in motion by 9/11, and I still hope I am wrong. I’ve been wrong enough to be hopeful.


Plus witches, Barbie, pizza, morphine and vodka.
Posted by:Steve

#5  ...then say the opposite the next day.
Posted by: Raj   2004-07-09 4:34:35 PM  

#4  don't see that happening Stephen. He'd wait until polls told him which way the wind was blowing, then go mealymouth on it
Posted by: Frank G   2004-07-09 3:55:09 PM  

#3  If Israel bombed Iran nuclear facilities,Kerry would get in front of cameras in a nanosecond to endorse Israeli attack.Why?1)Show he is tough and strong on defense-esp.if someone else does it.2)Jewish voters are core Demo constituency,that has started to waver w/Bush's strong support for Israel's right to defend itself.3)He can always criticize later,saying attack was premature or something-you know,"I approved of the attack,before I didn't".
Posted by: Stephen   2004-07-09 3:41:51 PM  

#2  Thats a policy of long standing. Catch is, it requires Iran and Saudi to sit down with Israel and negotiate. Very unlikely to occur.

As for trusting, im sure Israel could come up with "national means of verification"
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2004-07-09 1:54:09 PM  

#1  Sharon's recent meeting with El-Baradei was a mystery to me. Why would he be talking to the UN about officially declaring Israels' nukes as part of a process to a nuclear free middle east? That route could only work if Israel could trust 1) the UN, and 2) the other arab states. Is there some strategy I'm not seeing?
Posted by: sludj   2004-07-09 1:31:47 PM  

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