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| Africa: Subsaharan | |
| Nigeria headed for violent implosion | |
| 2004-07-09 | |
| Nigeria is heading for a violent implosion that would dwarf the crisis in Sudan’s Darfur region, Nobel literature laureate Wole Soyinka says. A wave of mass killings in May this year was just a precursor to the balkanisation of Africa’s most populous nation and major oil exporter, he said, as rival ethnic and religious groups vie for dominance. "I consider that Nigeria is on the verge, on the brink of a massive implosion that will make what’s happening in the Sudan child’s play," Soyinka said in an interview at his home in a tropical woodland about 50 miles (80 km) north of Lagos. "We know there are movements for secession in this country. We know that everybody is preparing for the contingency of breaking up. International organisations are also studying the situation," said Africa’s first Nobel Prize winner for literature, who will celebrate his 70th birthday next week. More than 1,000 people were killed in a month of tit-for-tat fighting in central and northern Nigeria in May, heavily armed militia clash frequently in the Niger delta, and a political dispute in central Benue state has killed 150 this year alone. Analysts say Nigeria’s death toll from violence of at least 10,000 since democracy returned in 1999 puts the world’s seventh largest oil exporter on a par with high intensity conflicts in Colombia and Chechnya. But the complexity of Nigeria’s wars, each with a unique set of ethnic, religious and political undertones, made them more difficult to understand than the "massive, uni-directional violence" in Sudan, Soyinka said of the crisis in Darfur where more than a million black Africans have been driven from their homes by Arab militias. The recurring massacres around Nigeria, Soyinka said, were "violent monologues" reflecting a deep imbalance in its make-up that could only be resolved in a fundamental rethink by the country’s ethnic groups in a Sovereign National Conference. This idea first gained currency in Nigeria’s south after the annulment of elections in 1993, deemed to be the fairest in Nigeria’s history, which southerner Moshood Abiola was on course to win. It has since become a rallying cry nationwide for civil rights groups, which recently joined under an umbrella body called Civic Forum, set up by Soyinka. "The Sovereign National Conference would throw all the pieces of this country in a basket and try to bring a discernible feature out of it," he said.
President Olusegun Obasanjo has opposed the formation of a sovereign conference, arguing that could lead to disintegration. "We are heading that way already," said Soyinka. "This is already a divided country." "If it is going to cost millions of lives to keep an entity together, I don’t want any part of it. It is better that you break peacefully." The introduction of Islamic law in 12 northern states, with punishments including stoning for adulterers and amputation for thieves, was already a "defiance of the integrity of this nation", Soyinka said. Soyinka said he favoured keeping Nigeria intact, but would keep an open mind pending the findings of the conference. Some analysts have argued that the idea of the sovereign conference is really a way for southern Nigerians, many of whom feel they have been dominated by the mainly Muslim north since independence in 1960, to achieve more power. Soyinka, who is a member of the Yoruba ethnic group that inhabits the south-west of the country, said this could be true, but the idea was gaining popularity among people in the north. "The important thing is that people should choose exactly what they want," Soyinka said. | |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #8 mhw, you are correct in stating "The south, mostly non Moslem, has the oil." Which is one main reason why the Islamic ruled north of the nation would love to control the south. It's always about the oil. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-07-09 9:44:07 PM |
| #7 Did you say Sani Abacha, Frank? HEY!!!! Those lousy bastards!!!! |
| Posted by: tu3031 2004-07-09 12:35:08 PM |
| #6 I sure hope my share of Sani Abacha's fortune is in the south...already there's been delays in transferring the funds to my bank account. This shit will probably require me to deposit more $ with my new Nigerian friends |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-07-09 10:43:20 AM |
| #5 First will come the chaos, then accusations and guilt-throwing from the international community at the West for post-imperial messes, then public opinion pressure for us to intervene and dole out money. Repeat 50 times in the next 5 years. All amidst a lot of dead people. That should satisfy the international community-with its toxic guilt and anti-American trappings. This time, instead of doing the world's bidding and then getting chastised for it, and seeing scant number of other countries ever putting their lives where their mouths are, we should shrug like Atlas. |
| Posted by: jules 187 2004-07-09 10:36:05 AM |
| #4 Actually, a north south split in Nigeria would be good in the long term for oil availability. The south, mostly non Moslem, has the oil. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-07-09 10:03:45 AM |
| #3 I hope they do find a way to peacefully dis-assmeble what was n artifical European divison and conglomeration of tribal areas. If they do not, then its will be tribal warfare - and more Muslims destroying and comitting mass murder in the name of Allah. To get a taste, watch the movie "Tears of the Sun" (pretty good movie - Bruce Willis, Navy Seal, etc). Despite some of the technical inconsistencies (aircraf t armament, bomb effects, cell phone workign in the deep bush, and a few slips in how the Seals operate), it does show pretty well the tribal nature of things. And more importantly it shows what happens when you combine that tribalism and racism with technology, automatic weapons, and despots. I've seen some things of that sort with my own eyes. You wonder how people like the despot's henchmen even qualify as human beings after the kinds of butchery they commit. God help the Nigerians - for if they do not come to their senses, there will be a bloodbath of historical proportions there. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2004-07-09 2:03:36 AM |
| #2 Nigeria devolving into chaos means further oil/energy price hikes, considering Nigeria is yet another OPEC exporting nation in turmoil. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-07-09 1:09:21 AM |
| #1 Read Soyinka's book, The Open Sore of a Continent. Yes, Soyinka is a politician. I don't believe he wants to be a dictator at all. Besides, I have another reason to like him. If you read the book, look up the story of Walter Ofonagoro. I had the misfortune of having him as my history instructor at Brooklyn College in 1975. Anyone who dislikes that man the way Soyinka does is all right in my book. |
| Posted by: Eric Jablow 2004-07-09 12:52:44 AM |