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| Iraq-Jordan |
| 20,000 hard boyz in Iraqi insurgency |
| 2004-07-09 |
| The Iraq insurgency is far larger than the 5,000 guerrillas previously thought to be at its core, U.S. military officials say, and it’s being led by well-armed Iraqi Sunnis angry at being pushed from power alongside Saddam Hussein. Although U.S. military analysts disagree over the exact size, dozens of regional cells, often led by tribal sheiks and inspired by Sunni Muslim imams, can call upon part-time fighters to boost forces to as high as 20,000 — an estimate reflected in the insurgency’s continued strength after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone. And some insurgents are highly specialized — one Baghdad cell, for instance, has two leaders, one assassin, and two groups of bomb-makers. The developing intelligence picture of the insurgency contrasts with the commonly stated view in the Bush administration that the fighting is fueled by foreign warriors intent on creating an Islamic state. "We’re not at the forefront of a jihadist war here," said a U.S. military official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official and others told The Associated Press the guerrillas have enough popular support among nationalist Iraqis angered by the presence of U.S. troops that they cannot be militarily defeated. The military official, who has logged thousands of miles driving around Iraq to meet with insurgents or their representatives, said a skillful Iraqi government could co-opt some of the guerrillas and reconcile with the leaders instead of fighting them. "I generally like a lot of these guys," he said. "We know who the key people are in all the different cities, and generally how they operate. The problem is getting actionable information so you can either attack them, arrest them or engage them." Even as Iraqi leaders wrangle over the contentious issue of offering a broad amnesty to guerrilla fighters, the new Iraqi military and intelligence corps have begun gathering and sharing information on the insurgents with the U.S. military, providing a sharper picture of a complex insurgency. "Nobody knows about Iraqis and all the subtleties in culture, appearance, religion and so forth better than Iraqis themselves," said U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel Baggio, a military spokesman at Multinational Corps headquarters in Baghdad. "We’re very optimistic about the Iraqis’ use of their own human intelligence to help root out these insurgents." The intelligence boost has allowed American pilots to bomb suspected insurgent safe houses over the past two weeks, with Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi saying Iraqis supplied information for at least one of those airstrikes. But the better view of the insurgency also contradicts much of the popular wisdom about it. Estimates of the insurgents’ manpower tend to be too low. Last week, a former coalition official said 4,000 to 5,000 Baathists form the core of the insurgency, with other attacks committed by a couple hundred supporters of Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and hundreds of other foreign fighters. Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the figure of 5,000 insurgents "was never more than a wag and is now clearly ridiculous. Part-timers are difficult to count, but almost all insurgent movements depend on cadres that are part-time and that can blend back into the population." U.S. military analysts disagree over the size of the insurgency, with estimates running as high as 20,000 fighters when part-timers are added. Ahmed Hashim, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the higher numbers squared with his findings in a study of the insurgency completed in Iraq. One hint that the number is larger is the sheer volume of suspected insurgents — 22,000 — who have cycled through U.S.-run prisons. Most have been released. And in April alone, U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 people, the military official said, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen fighting under the banner of a radical cleric. There has been no letup in attacks. On Thursday, insurgents detonated a car bomb and then attacked a military headquarters in Samarra, a center of resistance 60 miles north of the capital, killing five U.S. soldiers and one Iraqi guardsman. Guerrilla leaders come from various corners of Saddam’s Baath Party, including lawyers’ groups, prominent families and especially from his Military Bureau, an internal security arm used to purge enemies. They’ve formed dozens of cells. U.S. military documents obtained by AP show a guerrilla band mounting attacks in Baghdad that consists of two leaders, four sub-leaders and 30 members, broken down by activity. There is a pair of financiers, two cells of car bomb-builders, an assassin, separate teams launching mortar and rocket attacks, and others handling roadside bombs and ambushes. Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society, not a Taliban-like Islamic state, the military official said. Almost all the guerrillas are Iraqis, even those launching some of the devastating car bombings normally blamed on foreigners — usually al-Zarqawi. The official said many car bombings bore the "tradecraft" of Saddam’s former secret police and were aimed at intimidating Iraq’s new security services. Many in the U.S. intelligence community have been making similar points, but have encountered political opposition from the Bush administration, a State Department official in Washington said, also speaking on condition of anonymity. Civilian analysts generally agreed, saying U.S. and Iraqi officials have long overemphasized the roles of foreign fighters and Muslim extremists. Such positions support the Bush administration’s view that the insurgency is linked to the war on terror. A closer examination paints most insurgents as secular Iraqis angry at the presence of U.S. and other foreign troops. "Too much U.S. analysis is fixated on terms like ’jihadist,’ just as it almost mindlessly tries to tie everything to (Osama) bin Laden," Cordesman said. "Every public opinion poll in Iraq ... supports the nationalist character of what is happening." Many guerrillas are motivated by Islam in the same way religion motivates American soldiers, who also tend to pray more when they’re at war, the U.S. military official said. He said he met Tuesday with four tribal sheiks from Ramadi who "made very clear" that they had no desire for an Islamic state, even though mosques are used as insurgent sanctuaries and funding centers. "’We’re not a bunch of Talibans,’" he paraphrased the sheiks as saying. At the orders of Gen. John Abizaid, the U.S. commander of Mideast operations, Army analysts looked closely for evidence that Iraq’s insurgency was adopting extreme Islamist goals, the official said. Analysts learned that ridding Iraq of U.S. troops was the motivator for most insurgents, not the formation of an Islamic state. The officer said Iraq’s insurgents have a big advantage over guerrillas elsewhere: plenty of arms, money, and training. Iraq’s lack of a national identity card system — and guerrillas’ refusal to plan attacks by easily intercepted telephone calls — makes them difficult to track. "They have learned a great deal over the last year, and with far more continuity than the rotating U.S. forces and Iraqi security forces," Cordesman said of the guerrillas. "They have learned to react very quickly and in ways our sensors and standard tactics cannot easily deal with." |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #13 Great news! They're down to only 20k! Just a few days ago there were claims that the Mahdi "Army" had 250k all by itself. Sounds like there's been some good huntin' goin' on down there. |
| Posted by: Tibor 2004-07-09 1:14:09 PM |
| #12 LH - I'm sure it's what the bartender at the Baghdad Intercontinental quoted. ... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-07-09 10:33:53 AM |
| #11 problems i have with the 20,000 number - 1. does it include the Sadrists? If so, given both the ambiguous political position of Sadr, and the relatively poor fighting skills of the Al mahdi army compared to the Sunni insurgents, its less significant than meets the eye (and is it before or after the 4000 killed?) 2. How many are hired thugs who will go home when the funds dry up? 3. How many are "nationalist" in the sense of viscerally attacking Americans, but will go home when they see pro-Allawi Iraqis on patrol? 4. How many are in Fallujah? Without some breakout, its hard to make sense of the number. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-07-09 10:26:20 AM |
| #10 Verlaine - a truely magnificent pair of comments. While some of what you say was floating around in my head when i read this article, you have synthesized things well. Its comments like these that make it worth wading through some of the trash here. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-07-09 10:22:14 AM |
| #9 nah, just moral aid and comfort and propaganda |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-07-09 10:20:06 AM |
| #8 The money needed by the Baathoterrorists and Jihaditerrorists is fairly significant. I wonder if they are getting any serious money from US antiwar types. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-07-09 9:56:21 AM |
| #7 rex, I ridiculed the content at some length (perhaps too much); I didn't really get into the AP distortion -- I focused on the glib and implausible b.s. offered up by Cordesman and the anonymous officials. a. I don't recall any estimates being characterized as much more than WAGs by anyone. I specifically recall Abizaid's original 5,000 statement -- it was not presented as a firm and surely known thing. And I don't remember the number issue ever being discussed without mention of uncertainty. In fact, wasn't there a fairly weak attempt at a negative article in just the last week whose main point was "we don't know a lot about insurgents"? Cordesman's only good point is that numbers in such situations are fluid. b. Of course they're mostly Iraqis. We've clearly believed so all along, as our possibly ill-advised attempts at engagement through reconstruction in the Triangle, have demonstrated. The "hearts and minds" stuff sure isn't directed at foreign fighters. But the Iraqis in question were either directly involved in a Hitlerian regime of mass murder and repression (not to mention theft), or would like in on some of that action in the future, and who correctly view the US as the enemy that spoiled all their fun. I'm sure there are also those whose idea of "nationalism" consists of shooting at foreigners, or anyone not from their town or region. Apparently there are also some wahhabi elements, esp. in/around Fallujah, who sort of easily share most of the aforementioned "goals" but also bring along their wacky religious baggage, and find foreign Sunni jihadis quite compatible. And then there's the underlying fear of the Kurds and Shi'a. A fear that extends, in some ways, to people like Cordesman and others quoted in the article, in all likelihood. The attachment to the status quo ante 9/11 + George Bush, i.e. Sunni autocracies from Cairo to Riyadh who more or less toed the lines we really cared about at the time, while we appeased them with a charade of peace-making for the Palestinians, probably explains a lot of the relentless opposition to US action from Tony and others. A Shi'a- and Kurd-dominated Iraq steps on nerves in most of the Arab world that aren't openly discussed. But in addition to Iraqis, and very importantly, there are foreign jihadis, plus Iranian agents or proxies perhaps provided by Hezbollah. Don't forget the Chechens whose ambush expertise and sniper services account for a lot of American blood. Take away the foreign element and you take away a lot of pipeline attacks, the biggest car bombings and assassinations, and many of the US deaths -- these are not a trivial part of the "bad news" in the last year. The motivations of the Iraqi elements aren't important other than in helping determine how to co-opt or defeat them. This will be an Iraqi job in the end. In the end it's a civil war for the Iraqis to finish. We're the hammer in the short term. |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2004-07-09 9:17:15 AM |
| #6 I think I'm getting tired of outrageous articles based primarily on anonymous sourcing and out-of-the-loop, out-of-the-theatre, ax-to-grind think tank wonks. I suppose it depends on whether those documents the AP writer claims to have are real, or if he's blowing smoke. Dan, are they real? |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2004-07-09 8:47:59 AM |
| #5 after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone. Action speaks louder than rhetoric. Seems like Coalition is extremely successfull. |
| Posted by: john 2004-07-09 8:36:36 AM |
| #4 But, #1, apart from your dislike of the biased style of writing used by the AP writer, what do you think of the content of the article? a. do you think the numbers of fighters in Iraq have been low-balled by the Admin? b. do you think the fighters are mainly Iraqis or not? |
| Posted by: rex 2004-07-09 3:41:11 AM |
| #3 "Bigger role" == share in a tyranny |
| Posted by: someone 2004-07-09 3:26:39 AM |
| #2 Bravo, Verlaine! |
| Posted by: ed 2004-07-09 2:07:28 AM |
| #1 All the straw men are here, marching smartly in a row (we even get a State Dept. source warning of -- drum roll -- politicized intelligence!!!). The picture presented doesn't contrast in the slightest with the bulk of administration statements on this issue for over a year. At every point it's been pointed out how we lack a clear picture of the enemy, that there are several factions involved, and I can't recall a single time anyone has suggested that Ba'athist dead-enders seek an Islamic state. Cordesman has slipped from being a dull but reliable source of overly detailed battle of order info on Gulf countries to a reliable source of stupid comments on Iraq. Funny how his "secular Iraqis angry at the presence of US troops" only seem to frequently commit violence in a few, uh, Sunni areas. Tony uses the term "mindless" without foundation, but hey thanks for bringing it up, since that's the only description for his statement that polling shows "nationalist" motivations behind insurgent attacks. So people in Nasiriyah bitch about not enough electricity and not being made rich and happy in one year by the magical Americans -- and this shows up in polls -- and this has f***-all to do with 20 losers up in Ramadi setting up an IED because they want their old privileged jobs back or because they're getting $100 an operation? And this is "nationalism"? So I guess the new definition of "nationalist" is a member of a privileged, often blood-soaked minority favored and enriched by a recently deposed genocidal despotism who a year ago was torturing and killing his countrymen for kicks and is now killing foreign soldiers who spoiled his little picnic for cash. C'mon Tony, don't hold back -- just go ahead and call them idealistic "agrarian reformers"! A member of a minority that has raped and slaughtered his country for decades seeking a return to that happy condition is a "nationalist"? Go peddle that line in Kurdistan, the south, or even many Sunni areas of B'dad, pal. I guess that Syrian whose car-bombing was pre-empted last fall wasn't a foreigner, neither were the victims in the last 3 Fallujah strikes, even though locals described them as foreigners. Nope, nothing to see here, move along. Meanwhile, who's the "military official"? He actually said that "most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society"? Wow. What an idiotic thought to hold. If they want a role, there are some elections coming. Oh wait, they want to ensure their dominance -- even though they're a minority, and deeply stained by mass murder and atrocities against their countrymen -- so hey, they need to attack US troops and blow up police stations. Sounds reasonable. Heck, no -- it even sounds "nationalistic", that's it! So the "many in the US intelligence community" who have been completely wrong so far now have new wisdom to share. Remember how we only had a limited time to make everything dandy in Iraq, or all hell would break loose? Or how the Shi'a were bound to join the insurgency. Good calls, guys. Tony should just get over it -- his pre-9/11 MidEast is gone forever. And his desperate hope, shared by many at State and some apparently still weighing down the intel community, that Iraq's tainted Sunni minority can rescue genocidal gangsterism posing as "nationalism" or pan-Arabism, is as forlorn as it is repugnant. Hey, it's called "RANTburg", right? |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2004-07-09 1:14:05 AM |