#1 Im with Arik on this one. Not sure if he'll pull it off though, Israeli politics, while intensely democratic, is also quite byzantine - the intertwining alliances based on ideology, personality, and convenience are daunting. There were some good articles on this in todays Haaretz.
Questions - will Bibi oppose Sharon in cabinet? If so does Sharon go ahead and fire Bibi and his allies, thus effectively dividing the Likud in two? If so can Sharon keep a majority in the Knesset or get a majority to call a new election? He would have the support of Labor, centrist Shinui, and the part of Likud loyal to him. But in addition to rightists opposing him, hed have any parties that fear losing seats in a new election - unless he can manage to form a new govt without an election - not easy, especially since labor is itself divided over whether to form a national unity coalition with Sharon - and the divisions in Labor are more personality driven than ideology driven. Meanwhile Bibi could try to form a new govt, with rump Likud, plus rightwing and religious parties - just might pull it off - expect Dubya to be very unhappy if THAT happens. |