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| Terror Networks | |
| 18,000 hard boyz in al-Qaeda's legions | |
| 2004-05-26 | |
Despite losses around the world, al Qaeda has more than 18,000 potential terrorists, and its ranks are growing because of the conflict in Iraq, a leading think tank warned Tuesday. Al Qaeda still has a functioning leadership despite the death or capture of key figures, and estimates suggest al Qaeda operates in more than 60 nations around the world, the International Institute of Strategic Studies said in its Strategic Survey 2003-4. The terrorist group poses a growing threat to Western interests and attacks are likely to increase, the institute said. "Al Qaeda must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction," institute director John Chipman told a news conference to launch the annual survey. At the same time, it will continue carrying out attacks on "soft targets encompassing Americans, Europeans and Israelis and aiding the insurgency in Iraq," he added. The estimate of 18,000 fighters was based on intelligence estimates that al Qaeda trained at least 20,000 fighters in its training camps in Afghanistan before the United States and its allies ousted the Taliban regime. In the ensuing war on terror, some 2,000 al Qaeda fighters have been killed or captured, the survey said. The United States remains al Qaeda's prime target, the report said. An al Qaeda leader has said 4 million Americans will have to be killed "as a prerequisite to any Islamic victory," the survey said. Iraq has become the new magnet of al Qaeda's war against the United States and up to 1,000 foreign Islamic fighters have infiltrated Iraqi territory, where they are cooperating with Iraqi forces, the survey said. Al Qaeda appears to have successfully reconstituted its operations in dispersed groups and through local allies since being driven out of Afghanistan, the survey said. "The Madrid bombings in March 2004 suggested that al Qaeda had fully reconstituted, set its sights firmly on the U.S. and its closest Western allies in Europe, and established a new and effective modus operandi," the survey said. The U.S.-led war in Iraq has increased the risk to Western interests in Arab countries, the survey said. The West and its allies must continue to mount a major offensive against al Qaeda and progress will be incremental, the report said. Any security offensive against al Qaeda must be accompanied with political developments, such as the democratization of Iraq and the resolution of conflict in Israel, it said. Progress against al Qaeda "is likely to accelerate only with currently elusive political developments that would broadly depress recruitment and motivation," the report said. | |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #13 This is disinformation at its finest. There is a world of difference between the real numbers and these. You don't want the enemy to know how much we really know about them. If anything, you puff up their numbers - makes them think their disnformation campaign is working (i.e. they want to seem bigger than they are) - might make them slip up or get overconfident. Napolean once said: "Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake". They are interrupting us with constant car-bombs and terror attacks in the Middle East, but we seem strangely quiet when it comes to public statements (letting the weapons speak). |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2004-05-26 9:53:50 PM |
| #12 My gut tells me that the number of hard core AQ -types killed in Afghanistan is more than 2000. I personally debriefed an SF ODA that whackomoled a couple of hundered on the outskirts of Kabul as the city fell in Nov 02. Add that to the hundreds that our buddy Dostum took care of in the north, the Tora Bora cave closing ceremony, the hundereds in custody (Balto sick balls !)and you get my drift. Granted not all were hard core but many had been through the camps. Others gained knowledge through distance learning - like the distance of the max effective range of a Barrett .50 cal ! As for the balance - initial training is one thing. The ability to sustain perishable skills (weapons, explosives, driving, etc)is a horse of a different color. |
| Posted by: The Dude 2004-05-26 9:24:14 PM |
| #11 Liberalhawk: 20,000 trained doents sound that far off to me - ive seen reports of as many as 30,000, though some undoubted flunked out, or decided to pursue an alternate career on graduation. Even if there are 30,000 trained jihadis out there, the fact is this - in the face of adversity (repeated defeats) many of them will undoubtedly have deserted the cause. When Lord Kitchener destroyed the Mahdi's army in the Sudan a century ago, that army did not reconstitute itself to threaten the British again. It basically melted away, as the adherents to the cause lost hope for final victory - which may have coincided with the revival of their instincts for self-preservation. The al Qaeda of yesterday (pre-9/11) was well-funded and had the best of everything. Today's al Qaeda, due to (albeit) imperfect financial controls in most of their donor countries, is having sufficient problems scraping together funding that members asked for payment in exchange for media interviews. Even for a holy warrior, it's one thing to get treated royally before embarking on a mission, and quite another to have to eke out a hand-to-mouth existence. Given that al Qaeda is so weakly represented in both Iraq and Afghanistan today, based on their casualty numbers there, I suspect that it is largely a spent force. (This is not to say that there aren't similar Muslim terror organizations waiting in the wings - Zarqawi's is one). |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2004-05-26 4:12:06 PM |
| #10 Without hoop-of-fire training they must be having morale problems. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-05-26 1:30:35 PM |
| #9 It seems to me that the key factor should be quality rather than quantity. In 2001, new recruits were training in camps and could do live-fire training, get hands on with explosives, and jump through flaming hoops for propaganda videos. Now they are training in safe houses, at odd hours, and probably having to move around a lot. Except for weapons assembly and disassembly, they are probably not getting any hands on. Marksmanship, planning, and teamwork will all be degraded. The number of "work accidents" will increase. If you can't control someone 24/7 for a couple of months, the effects of indoctrination will be incomplete -- the jihadis won't fight as hard. |
| Posted by: 11A5S 2004-05-26 12:20:54 PM |
| #8 Despite losses around the world, al Qaeda has more than 18,000 potential terrorists, and its ranks are growing because of the conflict in Iraq, a leading think tank warned Tuesday. Let me see if I have this right. They trained 20k in Afghanistan. We killed or captured 2k. That leaves 18k. How are they growing? Wouldn't the number be more than 18k? Everyday in Iraq we eliminate at least a few from the total number. But with terror it ain't about quantity its all about efficiency...cheap labor...some outside the box thinking...element of suprise in both timing, location, method...and of course, location, location, location (read USA) is everything! |
| Posted by: Jack is Back! 2004-05-26 11:19:14 AM |
| #7 20,000 trained doents sound that far off to me - ive seen reports of as many as 30,000, though some undoubted flunked out, or decided to pursue an alternate career on graduation. What seems off is the figure of 2000. It really seems to me that looking at the AQ dead and detained during the initial afghan campaign, Tora Bora, etc we had close to 2000 without even counting LFE effort around the world. In any case, how do you know from press accounts which dead Islamists had been through the camps. The Russians regularly off Chechen Islamists in large numbers - while most probably hadnt been to Afghanistan, undoubtedly some had. Similarly for Saudi, etc. I suspect theyve taken a very conservative approach and only counted someone if they knew for sure that hed been through Afghanistan. Which would make the 2000 a low end figure. I mean weve got 600 in Gitmo alone, and undoubtedly several hundred in Diego Garcia and elsewhere. Assuming all are core members, that half the figure right there, and we're not even talking the deaders, or those in Egyptian, Indonesian, euro, Russian, or other custody. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-05-26 11:06:17 AM |
| #6 My gut instinct is these numbers are high by a factor of ten or more and that they are influenced by political bias more than facts. Just because 18,000 went through the training camps does not mean: (a) Al Queda keeps accurate records or can even count; (b) others tracking the numbers have reliable sources; (c) thousands weren't killed in Chechnya or Tora Bora; (d) a bunch of those numbers were idiots that had to repeat the course; (e) Others may have gone on to advanced courses; (f) numerous may have been arrested or died of natural causes since this count goes back a decade or more; (g) seeing how the Taliban was slaughtered a significant number may have rethought their allegences; (h) It is known that a large number were guerrillas involved in local conflicts like the Phillipines who may have gone through training but cannot be accurately considered as Al Queda hardboys. |
| Posted by: ruprecht 2004-05-26 10:59:20 AM |
| #5 Looks like shoddy analysis and a lame conclusion. The WOT has increased the risk? Bull. By their own account if we hadn't gone into Afghanistan, there would be 20,000 as opposed to 18,000, they would be crankin' out the hardboyz by the bushel, and we would still be their #1 target. Makes no sense at all. |
| Posted by: Rex Mundi 2004-05-26 10:58:29 AM |
| #4 Progress against al Qaeda "is likely to accelerate only with currently elusive political developments that would broadly depress recruitment and motivation," the report said. The guys at this think tank have been repeatedly wrong - about both Iraq and Afghanistan. Not that being consistently wrong has crimped their tendency to make sweeping predictions of the future of Muslim terrorism. The whole ideology here is that appeasement works and deterrence doesn't. My take on it is this - deterrence generally works. However, if it fails, and another major terror attack occurs on US soil, the Iranians and Syrians are going to find out about what happens when Uncle Sam takes the gloves off. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2004-05-26 10:03:22 AM |
| #3 Polls, DBT? Like, I am so sure these hard boys answer the phone to Gallup! "Hello, sir. How are you this evening? Are you a member of Al Queda or its affiliates? Oh, you are?" Pul-leaze. |
| Posted by: Jen 2004-05-26 4:17:15 AM |
| #2 Polls of koranimals have revealed open support for al-Qaeda in the 40-60% range. On that note, bin Laden has 4-600,000,000 members. Time to dust off the nukes, and let 'em fly. |
| Posted by: Dog Bites Trolls 2004-05-26 4:09:45 AM |
| #1 'Progress against al Qaeda "is likely to accelerate only with currently elusive political developments that would broadly depress recruitment and motivation," the report said.' I suspect that said developments will sound like this: "KA-BOOOM! RAT-A-TAT-A-TAT! KABLOOIE!" That'll broadly depress 'em, along with the building they're in. |
| Posted by: Just John 2004-05-26 2:21:07 AM |