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| Britain |
| Anti-EU party predicted to take third place in UK’s European elections |
| 2004-05-24 |
| ...and is only 5 points behind (second-placed) Labour. If the traditional third party (the Lib Dems) is pushed aside by a single-issue UK-out-of-the-EU group, this is going to send shockwaves far and wide. UKIP homepage. Voters in next month’s European elections could shock the political establishment by giving the United Kingdom Independence Party more seats than the Liberal Democrats, a poll suggests today. A YouGov survey for The Telegraph indicates that UKIP, which is committed to British withdrawal from the European Union, is ahead of the Lib Dems among those who are "very likely" to vote. The European elections traditionally return more right-of centre politicos than do national elections. The reason being, those who take their politics seriously vote all the time, those who don’t really understand it all only bother turning up at the polling station for the big ones. It’s also a good opportunity for protest voting... According to this measure, which can be more reliable, particularly when turnout is low, the Conservatives are on 31 points, Labour 23 points, UKIP 18 points and the Lib Dems 15 points. See above. UKIP could win more than a dozen seats if these figures are repeated in the combined European, local and London mayoral and assembly elections on June 10. Such a result, relegating the Lib Dems to fourth place, would be a humiliation for their leader, Charles Kennedy, and would send shockwaves through Westminster, where the three main parties support EU membership and often dismiss those arguing for withdrawal as extremists. When all voters are considered, regardless of their likelihood of turning out, the Conservatives are still ahead, on 28 points, with Labour just behind on 27. The Lib Dems are on 18 points and UKIP is in fourth place on 14 points. The YouGov survey shows that voters differentiate between European and local elections. In the latter, UKIP’s poll standing is in single figures. Many of those questioned would also vote differently in a general election, with 36 per cent choosing the Conservatives, 33 Labour, 19 Lib Dem and only four per cent UKIP. Roger Knapman, the former Tory MP for Stroud who leads UKIP, welcomed the poll, which he said demonstrated the way the public was turning against the EU. "For the first time most people want us to get out of the European Union and renegotiate a common market, which is what we wanted in the first place," said Mr Knapman, who was a whip in John Major’s administration. That attitude is strenghtening, not diminishing. Anecdotally, I know of a fair few voters who are considering voting UKIP in the coming elections, as the mainstream parties are increasingly out of step with feelings on the street. Euro federalism is very unpopular in the UK. If the Tories went Euro-sceptic (in a sane way) at the next election, they’d walk it.... Although UKIP won three seats in the 1999 European elections, with seven per cent of the vote, the main parties have largely treated it as an irrelevance. That would change drastically if it was to overhaul the Lib Dems. All three parties would come under pressure to reconsider their positions on Europe, and Tony Blair might have to rethink his Many will be from your flock, Howard. "What I’m clear [about] is that our vision for the future of Europe is the right vision, a vision in which we are there, taking part, arguing our corner, but also arguing for a more flexible Europe." Commenting on the Telegraph poll, a Labour official said: "Even if it is right that the Tories are on 31 points, then that’s a lead of eight points. "That’s exactly the same lead they had five years ago. It shows they’ve made no progress at all." Long Live Spin! The Tories won the 1999 European elections convincingly, partly because the turnout was only 24 per cent. Labour supporters were disproportionately likely to stay at home. This year turnout is likely to be higher, helped by all-postal voting in some regions and because other elections are being held on the same day. But the YouGov poll suggests that percentage turnout is still only likely to be in the 30s, which is why the "very likely to vote" polling figures could turn out to be more reliable than the "all voter" ones. |
| Posted by:Bulldog |
| #15 The UK as it stands right now is in the best possible position vis-a-vis the EU, so long as it does not go any further. For example, a single currency sounds great on paper, but you're giving up control over monetary policy for some rules and treaties that can be broken anyway. With a single currency on the continent, British exporters are happy and you have control over your own monetary policy! With no risk of paying fines, penalties, etc. if you refuse to toe the Brussels (aka French & German) line. Don't give in! |
| Posted by: Rafael 2004-05-24 4:03:54 PM |
| #14 Howard : As I live in the Los Angeles area, I too see a skewed view of things, relative to the US as a whole. You really have your hands full though. The behemoth trend in the EU infrastructure is like the bloated government at the various levels here. It seems like the EU bureaucrats, like the bureaucrats here, want to ensure themselves a life of coming to work each day, kicking up their feet, doing little work, getting a payckeck, and spending the day viewing pornography on the internet. They gather themselves into "Public Employee Unions" and have certain politicians with a leash around the neck. This is in order to self-perpetuate their own betterment at taxpayers expense. |
| Posted by: BigEd 2004-05-24 3:51:15 PM |
| #13 Big Ed: I am becoming more conservative with age, certainly. I don't like what's beginning to happen in the UK - I get a strange view as I live in London which has always been the proverbial melting pot. I also get worried at the National Front doing so well in France. However, we have to duck out of the EU at some point - and the constitution, the holiest of holies, may be the opportunity. I dare say the govt will have to dangle the electorate a juicy carrot in some form to get out of this. I await the ensuing chaos with interest. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 2:14:28 PM |
| #12 To Howard and/or Bulldog : I looked at the Independence website. It seems that some of the issues they talk about manifests itself here in the US. Stop excessive immigration, lessen federal bureaucracy, political correctness, etc. If I were British, I would probably be "Conservative", yet the issues they raise, and the response they get, seems to resonate with a decent percent number of voters, even as a protest. In 1992 the Perot movement failed only because of the flakiness of the leader. Yet Perot, who was sharp in many ways, raised similar issues that the UKIP does. If there is a leader who is not considered kooky, and the EU continues to step on you folks, as it seems to be doing from an outside observer's point of view, look out. |
| Posted by: BigEd 2004-05-24 12:04:03 PM |
| #11 The EU Kool-Aid Acid Test? Must be on acid to dream up a Euro constitution. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 10:52:17 AM |
| #10 Declining to drink the EU kool-aid, are they? The noive of some people. Listen to your betters! |
| Posted by: mojo 2004-05-24 10:49:47 AM |
| #9 Apologies for the lackadaisical approach to sentence construction. Always around and about - time scarce as I'm completing my MSc dissertation at the mo.. fancy a pint on Sat afternoon/Sunday lunch Let me know! Email supplied. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 9:33:48 AM |
| #8 I had a girlfriend from Upavon once?! Very nice - green and pleasant. Mmmmm. Clarification, Howard?! It is indeed a nice part of the world, but not all the girls are 'green' (though they may be, in one sense, if they have been rolling in the clover) or 'pleasant'. Not enough, anyway. You in the Big Smoke this weekend? I'm paying a visit Sat - Mon. |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-24 9:23:18 AM |
| #7 The Euro Court of Justice / Human Rights is the biggest joke. We should aim to trim it down to simple trade agreements and have done with the trimmings that cause the rancour. London OK - wearing a bit thin after 10 years and working next to Regent's Park mosque can prove a little irksome! Wiltshire? The Vale of Pewsey? The White Horse? - think I had a girlfriend from Upavon once?! Very nice - green and pleasant. Mmmmm. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 8:59:43 AM |
| #6 LOL Howard, not far west enough. From the west country originally, and now back in Wiltshire, having spent a few years in London and north of the border. Wouldn't mind moving back to London again if the opportunity arose. How are you finding it?! The EU has grown beyond what most people originally envisaged, at least in the UK, and way beyond what most people want. Westminster |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-24 8:54:11 AM |
| #5 Just being sociable BD - I'd have a stab at Tonbridge Wells or Hemel Hempstead. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 8:42:37 AM |
| #4 Take your word for it.. I think they could do well (as a protest vote) - and I think you're right about the mainstream parties underestimating anti-European sentiment in the nation. The Euro-constitution is a no-win situation and could see the Labour party out of power if they push it too eagerly. I have to think the EU in a limited form is a good idea but the rate of change is currently mindblowing and may lead us down the dangerous road to European disunity that, ironically, the EEC was created to avoid. [Where you from Bulldog? London, personally - Derby originally.] |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 7:50:25 AM |
| #3 Howard, yes in theory the UKIP is good news for Labour, and yet - even with this surprisingly large share of the intended votes going to the UKIP - the Tories are still put ahead of Labour! That suggests either not all the UKIP voters are drawn from the Tories, or that today's Tory-inclined (i.e. right-wing) support is much larger than people think. Given the UKIP is the only player which offers what at least half the UK population desires - namely, less EU not more (as evidenced by the quarter who favour the proposed EU constitution versus the half who oppose, with another quarter undecided), and that their support is mostly confined to European elections, I think it's reasonable to assume that their support comes from more than just the Tory-voting base. Most of the read media are anti-EU - I think the tabloids and broadsheets are more in tune with popular sentiment than the parties, none of whom have the inclination or the courage to step off the slow-but-sure escalator to Eurofederalism and cop the hysterical national and continental flack that would entail. Isn't the UKIP a mix of the insane and dangerously right wing? Howard, you should visit their website and check it out for yourself. I attended a UKIP conference once. Actually, gatecrashed. Student days, and was very, very drunk at the time. They seemed like decent people to me, and not at all insane... |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-24 7:42:43 AM |
| #2 UKIP is good news for Labour - splitting the centre-right vote as you so astutely observe - will afford the Labour party some protection from the drubbing it may have received. Isn't the UKIP a mix of the insane and dangerously right wing? I wouldn't give the Tories much of a chance with 'Il Vampiro' in charge. Still Labour for me I'm afraid. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-24 7:24:06 AM |
| #1 The link to the UKIP homepage is wrong (for some reason!). How's this? |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-24 6:53:29 AM |