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| Britain |
| The end in sight for Blair? |
| 2004-05-09 |
| The story requires registration, but the Telegraph is worth it. The outcry over the allied torture photos in Iraq, the U-turn over the European referendum, and a Tory surge in the polls have provoked renewed speculation that political and personal pressure could prompt him (Blair) to stand down this summer. Robin Cook and Glenys Kinnock acknowledged that Mr Blair may have to go, as a poll showed Labour would lose power if he stayed in office - but would survive with a majority of 77 if Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, replaced him. The wife of the former Labour leader, who himself recently raised the prospect of Mr Blair "hanging up his boots", drew attention to the pressures the Blair family has faced in nearly a decade at the top of the party and seven as Prime Minister. "Sometimes he looks really drained and exhausted and I think particularly about the pressures on a family," she told GMTV. A YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday suggested that if Mr Blair remained as Labour leader he would get 36 per cent of the vote at the next election, compared with 40 per cent for the Tories, leaving him without an overall majority in the Commons. Bulldog, is this for real? |
| Posted by:RWV |
| #5 Galloway's a likely suspect, but i) if he said it, would it get widely reported? I wouldn't be surprised if he's already muttered such things at the rallys, conventions, fatwa parties etc. he phlegms over every day or so, and ii), I reckon he hates Blair more than he hates Howard, at the moment at least... You can imagine the sort of private conversations that go on: - One thing we could work on is Howard's Jewishness - that'll lose him some votes, won't it? - Yes, I'm sure it will. But pulling that card might backfire on us in a big way. - What if we just, you know, make the issue public tangentially, raising the issue but not risking being anti-Semitic ourselves? - For exapmle, by suggesting that Howard's likely to be pro-Israel... - ...and let other, non-Party, commentators add "'coz e's Jewish"? - Precisely! - Alternatively, we could just let Mad Fool Dalyell have another rant about Jewish cabals in the Commons as a parting shot before stepping down. |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-10 7:48:02 AM |
| #4 Galloway at 4/1 seems good for me. |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-10 7:30:35 AM |
| #3 It's a brave sould who tries to predict the likely outcome of the next GenElect. Far too early and too close to call at the mo, IMO. The Tories may appear to be in a 'state', but the state they're in is far stronger than it's been for years. The constitution issue's going to be an interesting factor; the immigration issue's going to be interesting; whether the Tories try to reclaim ground taken by the UKIP by becoming more eurosceptic's going to be interesting... Who first on the high profile left summons the 'courage' to state (what many are most probably thinking) Howard's a Joo and his best buddy (Letwin)'s too! will be very interesting. I think when that happens, the electoral s&^% will truly hit the wind turbine. Crunch time. Time to place bets yet? My odds: Tam Dalyell 3/1 Galloway 4/1 Clare Short 20/1 Robin Cook 30/1 |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-10 7:19:46 AM |
| #2 Judging by the state of the Tory party at the mo' I think Blair will get in - maybe not comfortably, but he'll get in. His undoing will be the Euro-constitution referendum early in the next parliament. I think this is where we'll see Gordon 'texture like sun' Brown steal the hot seat and rightly so... |
| Posted by: Howard UK 2004-05-10 6:47:12 AM |
| #1 RWV, there's been speculation about Blair's future for longer than I can remember! Blair may step down before the next election, or he may not. Just a few days ago he was talking about seeing through another complete term, presuming he'd win the next election. It's Cook's ambition to get rid of Blair (I can't speak for Kinnock, but it would seem to be the case for her, too) so I'd expect him to say or do anything that encouraged ideas that that may happen sooner rather than later. I wouldn't say this is one of the Telegraph's more informative pieces :) |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-10 5:07:51 AM |