EFL - Strategy Page
It's no Mogadishu, it's no Tet -- in fact, the ugly, baiting murders in Fallujah and Muqtada al-Sadr's made-for-Tv rebellion may be an extraordinary opportunity for the United States and Iraqi democrats, if the military operations and politics are handled with finesse... The Fallujah massacre and al-Sadr's riots are calculated, violent acts orchestrated by desperate thugs confronting imminent loss of power. An Iraqi democracy threatens the sorry lot of them, so they?re taken their best shot at halting the process. The Fallujah fascists and al-Sadr think they can defeat or at least deflect America by causing U.S. casualties, then parading the bodies before Peter Jennings and Al Jazeera. Al-Sadr adds another wrinkle: multiple "hotspots" to seed the impression of broad insurrection. It's a clever gambit, staging gunfights in Basra, Kut and Baghdad, and leverages contemporary cable Tv's appetite for 24-7 repetition and magnification. The goal is a "Tet effect," an echo of North Vietnam's 1968 offensive, which was a battlefield disaster for the North Vietnamese but a media (and hence political) victory. However, Tet 1968 and Mogadishu 1993 are dated scripts. We?re post 9-11.
In military terms, the U.S. and Iraqi forces will be conducting large-scale cordon and search operations (in Fallujah and in Sadr's alleys), supported by raids and limited attacks on diehard strong-points. Politically, the operation becomes a peculiar "show of force": Post 9-11, the challenge of thugs angling for "body bag" media victories will be met and trumped. The Marines' Operation Vigilant Resolve in Fallujah appears to have this strategic goal in mind. Iraqi security personnel are intimately involved, as interpreters and police. The uncensorable image for the cameras: New Iraq's security capability is growing. We're not going to destroy neighborhoods, but we will eliminate resistance. The Marines are targeting specific suspects, using information gleaned from video, informants and various sensors, to include unmanned aerial vehicles... Such standoffs, with innocents grabbed by cornered militiamen, send another message: Baath and Islamo-fascists aren't leading popular rebellions, they are holding Iraqis hostage, to their own evil ends.
I doubt we will see this well reasoned viewpoint in the NY Times or on CNN any time soon. |