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| Payroll and Household surveys data out at end of week |
| 2004-03-29 |
| Late this week the results of the March payroll survey will be announced. This number has become one of the most important things in the election. If the aggregate payroll numbers start increasing by 200k between late spring and the end of summer, Bush probably wins in a walk. If they increase at, say, 20k for this period, Kerry has a chance. The household survey numbers are used to compute the unemployment rate. This number is already low by historic standards but much higher than in 1999-2000 during the telecom and dotcom bubble. If the unemployment rate goes up each month between now and the election and the aggregate payroll shrinks, Kerry probably wins in a walk.The BLS has a a primer on the differences between the household and payroll numbers at the linked site. The article doesn’t have the comments I made above in HiLite. That is for those Rantburgians who want to watch the end of the week action. |
| Posted by:mhw |
| #10 Your LLC numbers show something but its not clear what; yes there are more incorporations but its not enough to explain away the household vs. payroll gap. The BLS does the best it can given the situation. The economy today is a dynamic creature and its virtually impossible to design a survey that can allow analysis of all the possible work force options. My daughter had 6 w-2s for 2003 (and she did other things which didn't produce a W-2). |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM |
| #9 My daughter had 6 w-2s for 2003 (and she did other things which didn't produce a W-2). I've an aimless child on the way back from France in August. Is she married? |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-03-29 8:17:07 PM |
| #8 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted] |
| Posted by: mhw TROLL 2004-03-29 7:52:07 PM |
| #7 The BLS is full of BS. In order to justify the dramatic differences in the two numbers, they basically subtract self-employed and agricultural employees, and add back in folks with more than one job. See my blog here. The two surveys differ by over 2 MILLION jobs created since November 2001! The reason is the HUGE numbers of people starting their own business. Rather than admit that they have an error in a survey, the BLS tries to argue the difference away by making that very point. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2004-03-29 4:30:33 PM |
| #6 Maybe the donks will be forced into a safety. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-03-29 2:25:46 PM |
| #5 deep irony if good econ data made Kerry throw the bomb |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-03-29 1:27:19 PM |
| #4 DPA - I generally agree. Note however that campaigns are like football games in that it is possible to disrupt the other team's game plan. For example a great running team may be forced to pass all the time if they fall well behind early. Good economic data now would help boost Bush and push Kerry to try more desperate attacks which would impact how the remainder of the campaign goes. |
| Posted by: AWW 2004-03-29 1:18:45 PM |
| #3 good point ;) |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2004-03-29 11:19:35 AM |
| #2 The Oct report will be released too late to factor into the election (it will be released on Nov 4 or Nov 5, two of three days after the election). So actually the Sept and Aug reports might be the most important. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-03-29 11:02:08 AM |
| #1 I don't think the March payroll numbers will have much effect on the election.... temporarily it might cause a boost and offer talking points to one side or the other but by the time the elections are around I think people will only be looking at the last couple months of employment figures. |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2004-03-29 10:54:38 AM |