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| Europe |
| Spain’s elections show why radical Islam can win |
| 2004-03-15 |
| Radical Islam has scored its first unambiguous victory against the West, and it should have been visible at a long distance (Why radical Islam might defeat the West, July 8, 2003). Winston Churchill’s quip that the appeaser hopes the crocodile will eat him last does not apply when the prospective victim expects to be in another world before the crocodile comes around. Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s Socialist Party crushed Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar’s Popular Party in Spanish elections on Sunday. US commentators expressed consternation that Spanish voters would reject America’s ally in the Iraq war after al-Qaeda’s apparent act of retaliation last Thursday, March 11. Spain’s death-knell sounded long before the train bombings in Madrid, however. No country in the world is more determined to disappear. The country~{!/~}s fertility rate of 1.12 live births per female is the lowest in the world. As recently as 1975, at the death of strongman Francisco Franco, the fertility rate stood at 3 births per female in 1976. By 2050 Spain will have lost a quarter of its population. Germany and Italy, whose fertility rates fell earlier than Spain’s, will lose a third, according to economist Anthony Scholefield. Half a millennium after the Reconquista, when Spanish Catholicism expelled the country’s Muslims and Jews, Spain has no choice but to ask the Muslims to return and take possession of its land by stages. Every Spanish worker in 2050 will support one pensioner, which is to say that the pension system will be bankrupt. According to one academic study, 5 million additional immmigrants must be working in Spain in 2050 to save the pension system, out of a projected population of 37 million - and that assumes an immediate recovery in the fertility rate to 1.5. At this point, it hardly matters what future fertility rate Spanish demographers might project. The demographic catastrophe of the past 30 years puts the pension system on a crash course toward bankruptcy, unless Spain attracts an army of immigrants. Except for a trickle of immigrants from Latin America, North Africa provides most of Spain’s immigrants at present. Two hundred thousand Muslims now reside in Spain, and they have built 100 new mosques in the past 10 years. Unless Spain were, most improbably, to attempt a recolonization from Latin America, it cannot do without more Muslims. Socialist voters may not have worked out the arithmetic; Jose Zapatero’s supporter in the street simply does not want to be burdened with America’s distant wars, especially if they draw fire at home. It all amounts to the same thing. Countries too lazy to produce their next generation will not fight. Who will lay down his life for future generations when the future generations simply will not be there? Like other former strongholds of Catholicism, Spain has made an abrupt and terrible shift away from traditional family life toward egregious hedonism. Alone among Europe’s great powers, Spain nipped Protestantism in the bud, avoiding the terrible religious wars that ravaged France during the 16th century, and killed off perhaps half the German population during the 17th century. By expelling its Jews, its Inquisition cut off access to the Hebrew language and Bible translation. By burning several thousand heretics in public, it offered a terrible object lesson to prospective dissenters. Not until 1936, when Catholic generals rose to overthrow the communist-tinged republic, did Spain finally have its religious war, with half a million deaths, of which one-quarter were from executions. The victorious General Francisco Franco kept Spain firmly in the Catholic fold until his death in 1975, after which Catholicism shriveled in Spain like a vampire exposed to the light of day. Along with church attendance, the birthrate fell from one of the highest to one of the lowest in the world. That already has been the fate of other Catholic strongholds, such as Canada’s province of Quebec. There the fertility rate dropped from 4.95 children per woman in 1961 to 1.57 in 1996. Old Europe’s people, religion, culture and fighting mettle have imploded together. The Europeans are not so much defeatist as resigned to extinction. |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #17 Interesting statement by David Gergen just now on Fox. He said that the response of an attack in the US just prior to our elections would be a serious miscalculation - the US public response would most likely be exactly the opposite of the Spanish. I believe that this would be true of all Americans who are not paid political consultants of the Jackass Party. They would, of course, suddenly start speaking Spanish. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-3-15 10:20:28 PM |
| #16 I see the same in politics from both parties, one out sources jobs/manufacturing and could give a shit about the environment the other has no concept of national defense and wants to raise taxes to support the indigent. That's not a true statement. Bush has, according to the experts, done more to support fuel cell technology than Clinton ever did. And I'm not so sure that the Democrats do more than provide lip service to the outsourcing issue. |
| Posted by: anon 2004-3-15 8:17:55 PM |
| #15 P.S. I think it's interesting that the West, in general, is concerned with being morally right about war, while the Islamofacists just want to win. You just don't understand. It's cool too loose. I've made a fortune with that theory. In A.N.S.W.E.R.to your question no. But he dreams about me. |
| Posted by: HuminWay 2004-3-15 6:39:41 PM |
| #14 "Jarhead, Dave D., and B: Many thanks to you for taking the time to answer my post! It's because of people like you that I ever was able to revise my once pathetic, outspoken, liberal nonsense-thinking self (still in process)." Take heart, ex-lib: until about this time last year, I was a Democrat; and I had been one for 31 years. Too bad it took radical Islam to cure me of it, though... |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-3-15 5:52:30 PM |
| #13 Fellow RB'rs, the symptom is in this country as well - I see it first hand daily. Every time I go back to metro-Detroit on leave I see "the sickness," - people fat, complacent, lazy, rude, only care about the instant gratification, no long term planning or investment in the country, just want it now or think the gov't owes them. I see the same in politics from both parties, one out sources jobs/manufacturing and could give a shit about the environment the other has no concept of national defense and wants to raise taxes to support the indigent. Neither wants to shut down the border and systemically actually fix the damn immigration problem. Different sides of the same damn coin imho. Bunch of sell outs - Follow the money trail I always say. Being a true patriot is not just flying the flag when its convenient, it means sometimes biting the fucking bullet for the country so things are better for our kids and their kids down the line. That's why I'm in the Corps and will be until they throw my sorry white ass out. I am so sick of what I call the American Moron running around whining about gas prices, their mortgage, and Bush. Basically, if it doesn't affect their little world they could give a shit about the state of affairs, but as soon as their little existence is affected then they go play chicken little. Always stay vigilant, the onus is on everyone of us no matter our lot in life to take care of this country and ensure its survival. |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2004-3-15 4:54:18 PM |
| #12 Jarhead, Dave D., and B: Many thanks to you for taking the time to answer my post! It's because of people like you that I ever was able to revise my once pathetic, outspoken, liberal nonsense-thinking self (still in process). I think you all have very valid and legitimate points on why the Euros lean toward peace at any price: 1) best of them killed off--the same is true, I think, of some of the native American leaders/people killed off here about a hundred years ago, 2) the years of aggressive, colonialist wars soured the Euros on the concept of a just war--that, coupled with the fear that they have of themselves and their own potential for evil, especially following WWI & WWII, and 3) the universal and inherent issue of human weakness, laziness, and suspiciousness, here and everywhere, fomented by misinformation from pseudo-legitimate sources in media, education, and government/wanna-be government sources. And I was hoping it was just a summer thing! Oh well. P.S. I think it's interesting that the West, in general, is concerned with being morally right about war, while the Islamofacists just want to win. Peace at any price + victory at any price = ? ?? (Yikes!) Also--I could've understood the election results a little better if it was the French or the Belgians that had caved. But the Spaniards? It freaked me out a bit. Anyone have any opinons on what the Italians would have done? Or the Germans? And I agree with B (posted elsewhere) that we better not underestimate ultra-lib Kerry's chances of winning. People don't like what they perceive to be "murky" waters regarding Iraq, and Kerry is in the position of simply pretending to know what to do. People could easily go with that and (supposedly) end the uneasy ambiguity they live with right now. |
| Posted by: ex-lib 2004-3-15 2:56:40 PM |
| #11 I wouldn't be so hard on our European friends. Our own populace has shown many of the same weaknesses. I don't know where you live, but where I live, I constantly hear people talking about Bush being a terrorist or that Sharon is a blood sucking murderer. They believe Bush lied and people died. They think the UN would have freed the Iraqi people, rather than acknowledge that, given the opportunity, the UN would have cut holes in Iraqi children's neck and sucked every last ounce of blood out of them, in the hopes of finding cheap oil. NO...you need look no further than your neighbors house to understand how this can happen. And if people like you and me don't start speaking up and sending in money to Bush..God help us all. |
| Posted by: B 2004-3-15 2:13:13 PM |
| #10 Dave D., great points. I'll have to revise my own thinking on that subject during my afternoon run. |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2004-3-15 1:14:47 PM |
| #9 "Everybody--WHY, after WWII is Europe so weak? Didn't they learn from their own experience what tyrants are capable of? What IS the deal on this? Someone? Anyone?" All right, I'll have a go at it... My own theory is that Europe is paralysed by the memory of its own capacity for violence, its inability to come to terms with whatever caused that violence, and an inchoate fear that whatever caused it--knock on wood--is still there, waiting to be unleashed. For much of the century and a half since the French Revolution, and particularly in the first half of the 20th century, continental Europe was the scene of carnage of a magnitude far, far beyond any seen before in the history of humankind. In WWII alone, some sixty million perished. And in the death camps of Socialism, in Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, many millions more met a violent end. Europe's twentieth-century paroxysm of mass slaughter has left them with the firm conviction that ALL wars are bad; ALL "-isms" are bad; ALL religion is bad; and that there is nothing, absolutely NOTHING, worth fighting for anymore. It has left them exhausted, timid and afraid. Their experience of war is very different from ours; with the exception of one brief period of colonialist interventionism in the early twentieth century, nearly every war we've fought has been fought to right some wrong. We wage wars to FIX things, not to break them. We wage war to set people free, not enslave them. And we wage war to enrich people, not to impoverish them--precisely our strategic objective in Iraq, which is to make them prosperous and thereby placid and content. I think Europe's history in the last century prevents them from seeing this; the concept of a war worth fighting is utterly alien to them, because they have no memory of such a thing and are loathe to even make the effort of understanding the notion. That's my take. |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-3-15 1:07:18 PM |
| #8 "WHY, after WWII is Europe so weak? Didn't they learn from their own experience what tyrants are capable of? What IS the deal on this? Someone? Anyone?" Ex-lib, my best swag (scientific wild-ass guess)- aside from some of the Euro-rantburgers on this site like Shep, Bulldog, JFM & TGA - it seems that a lot of the best and brightest from Europe died in WWII fighting Nazism & Facism, what was left were many who capitulated to the Nazis, or would rather surrender then see gay-Paris burn. Same fucks who let the jews be carted off without a second thought. Some euros are too young to remember the face of evil or what it takes (truly) to defeat it. Others fled to the U.S. & U.K. and know the deal. The rest just want to be left alone or maintain their own status quo so will do and say anything to save their own ass i.e. the spanish vote (I also see this coming to fruition in the U.S. w/our own LLL pussies) Although that vote was the last thing that should've happened after the train boom. |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2004-3-15 12:25:44 PM |
| #7 Bulldog: I know a great little cave house in Granada. Let's find TWO flamenco dancers... |
| Posted by: mojo 2004-3-15 11:05:52 AM |
| #6 The sky IS falling, Mike! In fact, it's raining crocodiles wearing little green headbands inscribed in Arabic! I suggest that all Yanks who know how to make croc skin boots sharpen their knives. Liberalhawk--great idea. Many Latinos would love to go to Spain, and they tend to procreate a little faster than the Spaniards, right? Even a very small monetary incentive could turn the tide on that one. But I don't think Spain is the least interested. Bulldog--Cordoba awaits. Garrison--you're dreamin' I think. If they don't see the writing on the wall now, they're not gonna UNLESS the tour of duty in Iraq DID change their minds "enmasse." Even if all 1800 produced four clear-thinking little Spaniards, that's not even 8000--a drop in the bucket compared to the 200,000+ Islamic invaders (over)populating their lands. But . . . (sigh) . . . I sure hope you're right. Everybody--WHY, after WWII is Europe so weak? Didn't they learn from their own experience what tyrants are capable of? What IS the deal on this? Someone? Anyone? |
| Posted by: ex-lib 2004-3-15 11:01:46 AM |
| #5 Appeasement (n.) - The policy of granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace. Synonyms: acquiescence, assent, backdown, bowing, capitulation, cringing, defeatism, deference, docility, giving in, humbleness, humility, malleability, meekness, nonresistance, obedience, passivism, passivity, pliability, prostration, recreancy, resignation, servility, subjection, submissiveness, submitting, surrender, tractability, unassertiveness, yielding |
| Posted by: Gromky 2004-3-15 10:44:50 AM |
| #4 "Except for a trickle of immigrants from Latin America," Millions of them available, if Spain wants to take them in. All Spanish speaking, all Catholic. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-15 10:19:28 AM |
| #3 I know a flamenco dancer from Cordoba. I feel it might be time to volunteer to do my bit to improve the prospects for Spanish demography. |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-3-15 9:40:30 AM |
| #2 In the aftermath of a war, survivors tend to procreate like rabbits. Perhaps the 1800 Spaniards returned from Iraq will do their manly duty producing the next generation. |
| Posted by: Garrison 2004-3-15 8:56:08 AM |
| #1 The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling! |
| Posted by: Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 8:12:14 AM |