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| House of Saud Works to Defeat Bush | ||
| 2004-03-12 | ||
| this seems about right ... Saudi Arabia has launched an undeclared war on George W. Bush. This simple fact must be understood by policy and strategy elites, the press, and the general electorate. Otherwise, the Saudis may well succeed in their tacit campaign to sabotage the long term success of Americaâs war on terror, by engineering the electoral defeat of George W. Bush in November. President Bush has provoked this response by proclaiming his intention to encourage democracy and liberalism in the Middle East, liberate the Arab masses from despotic rule, bring peace and prosperity to the region, and halt the spread of militant Islamic terror groups. horrible! Unlike past Presidents who, in varying degrees, paid lip service to these ideals, President Bush has acted decisively on them. His politically perilous actions, such as his invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, his conditioning support for a Palestinian state on the cessation of terror, corruption, and dictatorship, and his active promotion and support for liberal groups in the Arab world, have aroused Saudi fears and provoked a quiet counterattack. George W. Bush seriously disrupted the previous cozy relationship that Saudi Arabia historically enjoyed with the Bush family -- and with Washington power brokers, in general. The Saudis feel that their familyâs absolute rule over the kingdom may be endangered, and that their efforts to spread their virulent brand of Islam, Wahabbism, may be curtailed by the current Administration. The Saudi royals may well feel abandoned, and in their disillusionment have resolved to prevent a second term for George W. Bush. The Saudis traditionally had a symbiotic relationship with the Bush family and with George H.W. Bushâs coterie among the policy elites of the Republican Party. The largesse of the Saudi royal family is legendary. The Saudi Ambassador to the United States, Prince Bander bin Sultan, has boasted of his success in cultivating powerful Americans: If the reputation then builds that the Saudis take care of friends when they leave office, you would be surprised how much better friends you have who are just coming into office.The list of ex-office holders who propagate pro-Saudi spin is a long and disgraceful one. Hume Horan is an ex-Ambassador to Saudi Arabia who is a noble exception to the rule. He says this of his former colleagues who are now on the Saudi dole: There have been some people who really do go on the Saudi payroll and work as advisors and consultants. Prince Bandar is very good about massaging and promoting relationships like that.This phenomenon becomes self-evident in charting the history of Bush I and his White House staffers. Former President Bush I traveled the lecture circuit in Arab lands, earning upwards of $100,000 an appearance. Sentiment-tinged gifts to his Presidential Library and $500,000 to fund a scholarship in his name at Phillips Academy Andover (son George Wâs preparatory school, not coincidentally) are certainly important, but pale in comparison to his profits from participating in the Carlyle Group. The Carlyle Group is a supremely successful merchant bank, which also has James Baker (Bush I consiglieri) and Brent Scowcroft (Bush I National Security Adviser) as partners. This particular investment group has enjoyed access to investment funds from the Saudi royal family. Undoubtedly, the triumvirate of former officials, none of them previously renowned for investment prowess, has handsomely prospered from the arrangement. One-sided relationships are fleeting and rare in the political world, and one is entitled to ask what the Saudis have received in return for their munificent gestures. Publicly, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft have written editorials critical of the approach Bush II has taken towards the Middle East (particularly his support for Israel and regime change in the dictatorships that rule the Arab world). The New York Times reported in 2001 that Bush I had phoned the Saudis in Bush IIsâs presence, and assured them that his son would do the âright thingâ with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Presumably, this meant pressuring the Israelis. This sort of arrangement, a comforting one for the Saudis, whose sybaritic lifestyles promoted a level of comfort unknown to all but a few human beings in the history of mankind, began to end as the two Boeing 767s approached the World Trade Center on that fateful morning over two years ago. The terror attacks convinced George W. Bush that Americaâs approach to the Middle East needed to be drastically changed, to ensure Americaâs safety. His campaign to oust the Taliban from theocratic rule in Afghanistan and his defeat of Saddam Hussein sent a message to the Saudis that âbusiness as usualâ was a thing of the past. In calling for liberalism throughout the Arab world and for the acceptance of other religions, Bush challenged the support structure of the Saudi royal family, whose legitimacy is predicated on their role as defender of Islamâs holy sites and propagator of the faith. Much more importantly, in severing the ties that once bound, Bush II has declared that the ties of filial duty, which both animate and constrain the dynamics of the Saudi royal family, do not matter so much in his family. Not anymore, at least, no matter what the former appearances. In doing so, George Bush has become an apostate to the Saudis. It is not merely a matter of interests, but rather an issue of deep principle, fundamentally linked to their own way of life, and to their survival. From the vantage point of the Saudis, Bush II is not just unreliable, but also a danger. He is a self-identified born-again Christian, and is closely allied with the religious wing of the Republican Party. In a theocratic nation which forbids the practice of Christianity, a leader linked to rival religion is anathema. In their eyes (as well as those of some of President Bushâs most ardent opponents) he may seem to be something of a theocrat himself, but from a longstanding historical rival religion. When the Presidentâs Christian moorings are combined with the exaggerated role that Jewish neo-cons supposedly have in the White House (once again the fevered imaginations of the Saudis bear some resemblance to those of the Presidentâs most extreme domestic antagonists you noticed that too, huh?), trouble of the most fundamental sort looms for their regime. All along, the fanatic Wahabbi wing of the clergy has preached that a holy war exists with the West, and that accommodation with the infidels can only be a tactical pause in the eventual all-out war. From their perspective, it is easy to understand why George W. Bush -- the Christian âpuppet of the Jews,â and thus the embodiment of Wahabbi nightmares -- needs to be removed from office. How have the Saudis acted to destroy George Bushâs political career? By using the âoil weaponâ to torpedo the American economy over the next eight months, and thereby weaken electoral support for George W. Bushâs candidacy in November. The Saudis have traditionally been a swing producer within OPEC, acting to ensure oil prices remain âjust so -- not too high, not too lowâ by increasing or decreasing their marginal production. Oil prices which are too high may encourage conservation and the development of alternative energy supplies. Prices which are too high also weaken the Western economies where Saudi Arabiaâs investments must be parked. However, this historical concern seems to have been trumped by Saudi short term desires to inflict as much pain on the American economy as it can, by raising oil prices in the run-up to November. By restricting OPEC output since the end of hostilities in Iraq, the Saudis have forced oil prices up over the past several months. The American economic recovery is being slowly, almost imperceptibly, throttled. From a low of $23.61 per barrel in May, 2003, average crude oil prices have risen rather steadily, to $31.03 last month, up nearly one-third in eight months. If this rate of increase continues over the next eight months, the economic consequences for America will be grim. Jobs are not being created at the expected rate, and increasing voter dissatisfaction with the President is shown in public opinion polling, with jobs and the economy heading the list of concerns. Additionally, the Saudis may have been reducing their holdings of petrodollars and converting them into non-dollar denominated assets. This has hurt the value of the dollar. Money flows are difficult to follow, and currency manipulation may have unintended consequences, but a proxy for the Saudi desire to hurt America may be seen in the increasing number of oil field contracts going to non-US companies. The other factor which may hurt Bushâs chances for reelection is the situation in Iraq. Terrorists have been streaming in from Saudi Arabia, to wreak havoc and fund terror groups, despite protestations to the contrary by Saudi spinmeisters. Although attacks have been trending downward, an increase over the next several months would trigger renewed cries of âquagmire!â On the domestic front, Saudi-funded think tanks such as the Meridian International Center and the Middle East Institute have been a fount of op-ed writers and experts on cable news channels, who criticize President Bush. The Middle East Institute (headed by ex-Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Edward Walker) is the home of one of President Bushâs fiercest critics, Joseph Wilson. Mr. Wilson was at the center of a scandal that plagued the White House when Wilson charged that the White House had leaked to columnist Robert Novak the information that Wilsonâs wife was a CIA agent, thereby putatively endangering her. Wilson has proudly declared that his goal in life is to destroy George Bushâs Presidency. It is telling that this man, who has no campaign experience, was recently hired by the Kerry campaign. Given that Wilson is also a fierce critic of Israel, the Saudis seem to have spent their money wisely. The Saudis require stealth for their plan to succeed. They cannot be seen to be suddenly, openly, and catastrophically retaliating against President Bush, as OPEC did with its 1973 oil boycott in the wake of Israeli victory in war. The American public is in no mood to be pushed around by feudal Arab regimes. Instead, they have opted to quietly tighten the noose on the American economy, hoping to escape public blame. The Bush Administration, which still needs to deal with the Saudis, and many other repressive Arab regimes on the receiving end of Saudi largesse, undoubtedly perceives what is going on, but is constrained by the norms of diplomacy from openly acknowledging the reality of the situation. Voices urging accommodation with the Saudis are still heard within the State Department and elsewhere in the foreign policy apparatus.
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| Posted by:American with a long commute, watching gas prices and mad at OPEC |
| #12 We are too politically correct now to seize assets and freeze the money. But that is what we need to do to survive. Sorry, Paul, it's too late for that. It's time to take the war to the people that are instigating, driving, supporting, funding, and pushing it - the Wahabbi clerics and the House of Saud that has enabled them. They need to be totally destroyed, so the rest of the world can understand that free people will not tolerate attempts at subjugation, however stealthy it might appear to be. Kill a |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2004-3-12 3:45:36 PM |
| #11 Great comments, AP, dotcom and good post. How many times have the GOP Senators put up ANWR only to have the Dim Senators vote it down because it would endanger the caribou? Paul, maybe you know about ANWR... Bad thought: If the killers will do what they did yesterday in Madrid before the Spanish election, what might the USA have to "look forward to" before our elections in Nov.? |
| Posted by: Jennie Taliaferro 2004-3-12 3:38:42 PM |
| #10 Great article and great comments and analysis, guys! It is hard to work full time on water plant design and go to Rantburg U, too! So much protein to digest and so little time. I remember the oil embargo of 1973 and how the Saudis started to realize that THEY could control the spigot and let the wealth of the industrialized world flow into their bank accounts. I remember reading about gas lines in Europe, except in France, where they sold their national soul to the Arabs, so they were flush with oil. The sooner all the consumer nations have alternate oil sources to make up for the loss of Saudi oil, the better, more stable, and healthier we all will be. Saudi money is poison to western civilization. In this country Wahhabist money is funding mosques which are becoming a fifth column. We are too politically correct now to seize assets and freeze the money. But that is what we need to do to survive. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-3-12 3:24:55 PM |
| #9 The guy's oil prices are dated: Per Money/CNN, as of March 10, the price of a barrel of crude is now 36.45, which means the price as increased by more than half. |
| Posted by: Ptah 2004-3-12 2:46:42 PM |
| #8 lyot - Are you trying to tell us something? There's no consistent point in your blather, just fuzzy-minded mumbling with some imaginary sinister subplots and equally imaginary air of being informed. You don't know jack. "US-Shia alliance" WTF? Are you referring to the CPA's dealing with the Shi'a majority in Iraq? This notion is patently stupid on its face. You're a looney. "almost the completly Gulf is now Shia dominated territory" "Sunni Muslims make up the majority (85%) of Muslims all over the world. Significant populations of Shia Muslims can be found in Iran and Iraq, and large minority communities in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and Lebanon." -About.com Funny, that not only doesn't substantiate your assertion, but if you knew your geography, you'd realize it refutes it. The Gulf Cooperation Council includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Only one other nation is on the Gulf - Iran - and that is the ONLY Shi'a-dominated country in the lot. You still miss when you include the entire M.E. as the citation from About.com ALSO demonstrates. You really don't know much about Arab Islam, do you? "I reckon the US has nothing to gain from a implosion of the system in that country." Do you refer to the eventual flight to Switzerland (or wherever) of the Royals? There is no "if", there's only "when". The Royals care about one thing: sucking on the oil tit as long as possible. Implosion with or without our help is coming. Rather than allowing them to continue to fund terror and slowly strangle the economies of the entire industrailized world, I suggest we should not wait - that we should take their oil away from them. Period. I have no idea what you thought your point was, but one thing is clear: You reckon wrong. "But it's now in a position in which it can pressure the Saudi's into full cooperation in the war on terror, which means in the first place, total transparancy of it's intelligence information..." We did not have an overwhelming (one which over-rides restraints - we've been tempted, eg. '73 embargo) reason to do it until they lost control of a few loose Wahhabi cannons (eg. OBL) who screwed up the Royal Plans (to keep it under the radar and bleed us slowly) and made the conflict between the US and their Islamofascists both very public and very "hot" - and revealed the depth and breadth of the enmity directed toward the West in general and the US in particular. In every way except for the deaths of 3,000 people, the 9/11 attack has been a disaster for the Islamofascists and an overdue wakeup call for the US and the West. In fact, I'm more than glad they acted before Khan (or other asshole) gave them a nuke capability. "This whole oil thing is nothing more then a futile resistance effort by the Saudi's, but i doubt it will manage to deflect US pressure." You don't really have a point, do you? You just like to practice your English in RB. You're a moron - and your comments suck. You are about as uninformed regards Saudi Arabia, the US, the mechanics of diplomatic relations, oil production and markets, hell - just about everything involved in this topic as a person can be - or you're just a looney who makes whatever statements form in that vaccuous space between your ears. Thank you so very very much for the opportunity to work off a little steam. That is, indeed, the one useful function of trolls. FOAD. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-3-12 2:11:53 PM |
| #7 .com is right on the money. |
| Posted by: Dan 2004-3-12 2:05:15 PM |
| #6 It's clear the Saudi House of Saud is feeling the heat imposed on it by the military campaign in the Middle East..Because of the US-Shia alliance, almost the completly Gulf is now Shia dominated territory, and that poses a serious security problem for the Saud Dynasty, who risks being squashed between the US and the Wahhabist. I reckon the US has nothing to gain from a implosion of the system in that country..But it's now in a position in which it can pressure the Saudi's into full cooperation in the war on terror, which means in the first place, total transparancy of it's intelligence information... This whole oil thing is nothing more then a futile resistance effort by the Saudi's, but i doubt it will manage to deflect US pressure.. |
| Posted by: lyot 2004-3-12 1:21:29 PM |
| #5 Hiryu - "What makes no sense about this is that the default Democratic position remains to defer to Jerusalem's position and I really don't see that changing." Can you explain what you mean by this statement? I'm not sniping. It just isn't clear to me what you're saying - and I really want to know - honest! |
| Posted by: .com 2004-3-12 1:02:29 PM |
| #4 What makes no sense about this is that the default Democratic position remains to defer to Jerusalem's position and I really don't see that changing. If Riyadh really believes that making life difficult for Dubya will make their lives easier they have another thing coming; particularly since this election is still Dubya's to lose. Of course, being in denial is the default Saudi position. |
| Posted by: Hiryu 2004-3-12 12:38:26 PM |
| #3 I think it's time to teach foreign powers not to meddle in US elections. The House of Saud needs to cease to exist. The funding of terrorists needs to stop. The teaching of Wahabbi islam needs to be terminated. Nuke the entire damned country into glowing radioactive glass, and shoot any we miss. Do it NOW, not after the elections. Do it with the full force of the might of the United States. The entire world will be better off. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2004-3-12 11:21:53 AM |
| #2 This is an incredibly well-written article - my sincere Thx for posting. I hope every RBer sends the link to everyone they know. I just did that with this preface: The upcoming US general election will be crucial. You've heard this before - so often that it has probably lost its meaning. The choice between Kerry and Bush is stark - and the winning Presidential candidate will automatically become an historical figure. Remarkably, we have seen this before: when Reagan's administration swamped the Soviets with our superior technical capabilities and raw economic power causing the collapse of our strongest communist adversary. We are at war, again - this time with insanity incarnate. I also believe, in this election, we have a choice of whether to deal with our adversaries (seen and unseen) from a position of strength and resolve or from one of dilute weakness and pathetic pandering to foreign interests - who seek no less than to restrain us or destroy us. This motherfucker matters, to put it simply. No matter what your current position may be, think it through for yourself and please vote. November is a pivot point of extreme importance. Let it be decided by Americans with brains, not political whores or foreign interests. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-3-12 11:03:57 AM |
| #1 I think W's old man should call in some markers with the Saudis to get them to increase production to moderate the price of oil, especially if Chavez continues down his current path of destruction. The Bushes have a lot invested in their Saudi ties, so it's time for those investments to start paying off for the US. |
| Posted by: Tibor 2004-3-12 10:29:57 AM |