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| Europe | ||
| Carnage leads conflicting clues to Madrid booms | ||
| 2004-03-12 | ||
| A somewhat different perspective on the subject than the other story. The flood of conflicting evidence and clues that emerged from the carnage of the Madrid bombings yesterday pointed in two very different directions, leaving counterterrorism officials in a country painfully familiar with terrorist violence struggling to identify a culprit. Just hours after the bombings, the Spanish authorities blamed the Basque separatist group known as ETA. Hours later, the same officials announced the discovery of new evidence they said left open the possibility that Islamic militants had been involved. "Could it have been Islamic fundamentalists?" one senior Spanish antiterrorism official asked last night. "It could have been. Spain is clearly a target of Al Qaeda; Osama bin Laden has said so himself." The scale of the violence, the indiscriminate nature of the killing and the near-simultaneity of the 10 bombings yesterday were all reminiscent of Al Qaeda. In addition, the Spanish interior minister said the police had found detonators and an audio tape of Koranic verses inside a stolen van that was parked near the station where three of the four bombed trains originated. Unless the Basques have decided to switch religions on us, a van loaded with detonators and Arabic audiotapes tends to point things in the Islamist direction ... In a sign of concern that the violence might not be limited to Spain, France raised its national terrorism alert from the lowest level. A senior French security official said in the days before the Madrid bombings that they had indications of possible terrorist attacks on railways in France and other European nations. That would be the ransom demand that we heard about a little while ago. Yet in the chaotic aftermath of the bombings, antiterrorism officials cautioned that other evidence seemed to implicate ETA. One Spanish official who spoke on the condition he not be named said the dynamite-like explosive used in the attacks, Titadine, had been used before by ETA, which stands for Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, or Basque Homeland and Freedom. It is also widely available commercially, per the WaPo article. Most recently the police found the same explosive in a vehicle they intercepted last month as it was driven to Madrid by ETA militants. The police also found bomb-laden backpacks like those used in yesterdayâs attacks when they foiled a bombing at a Madrid train station on Christmas Eve, an event they linked to ETA. Yesterdayâs bombings also came after months of intelligence reporting that ETA was planning a major attack, several Spanish officials said. The timing of the violence â with national elections scheduled for Sunday â seemed to suggest ETAâs hand as well, they said. Or Binnyâs jackboots wanting to pay back Aznar and the Popular Party for supporting the war in Iraq while he was still in office. The evidence can be interpretted either way, though I doubt the van w/ the detonator and the tapes can ... But even as the interior minister, Ãngel Acebes, was blaming ETA directly for the carnage, another senior Spanish counterterrorism official questioned privately whether the Basque group would wantonly kill so many innocents, most of whom were the sort of working-class people to whom ETAâs Marxist-oriented leaders have traditionally tried to appeal. "Iâm not so certain," said the official, who has investigated Basque terrorism for more than a decade. "The problem is that ETA has never taken a step of this magnitude before. This would be off the charts for them." ETA has long demanded an independent Basque state in northern Spain and southern France. The group has been under increasing pressure from both governments in recent years, and officials said they believed its capacity for violent action appeared to have declined. The Spanish authorities reported arresting 125 ETA members and accomplices last year. The French arrested 46 others, including some senior leaders. "Neither ETA nor Grapo maintains the degree of operational capability it once enjoyed," the American State Department reported this year, referring also to a smaller radical organization called the First of October Anti-Fascist Resistance Group. "The overall level of terrorist activity is considerably less than in the past, and the trend appears to be downward." Some in Spain fear that yesterdayâs bombings could be an indication that the crackdown could be driving radical young Basques into the ETA underground. "If this was ETA, it is the crazies, the cubs, who have grown more and more radical," a senior Spanish antiterrorism official said. "The more political cadres are losing influence, and these ones are more difficult to reason with." The problem is, the krazed kiddies arenât going to be the ones with the intelligence, patience, or sophistication to orchestrate what happened in Madrid, at least IMO. So that means either some of the old guard are still at large and have expanded their horizons or that itâs somebody else. What the Basques could possibly hope to accomplish by perpetrating this atrocity is anyoneâs guess, it sure ainât going to get them their own country anytime soon. In Washington, a counterterrorism official cautioned against assigning blame, saying terrorism experts would carefully review the evidence before ruling out involvement by ETA. He said American officials were still discussing whether to send experts to assist the Spanish governmentâs investigation. Before yesterday, Al Qaeda had not carried out any known attacks in Spain. But prosecutors say the group has maintained cells in Spain since at least the early 1990âs, insinuating themselves among the countryâs growing Arab immigrant population. The Spanish police and intelligence agencies, strengthened in part by their long struggle against Basque separatists, began watching such groups well before most of their European counterparts. By the mid-1990âs, they were monitoring a network of Syrian immigrants, many of them affiliated with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood whose members have since been accused of logistical and other support to the Sept. 11 hijackers. In a nearly 700-page indictment issued last year, the Spanish investigative magistrate Baltasar Garzón accused one of the Syrians, a successful businessman named Muhammad Galeb Kalaje Zouaydi, of distributing $800,000 for the Qaeda network under the cover of a Spanish real-estate development company. Mr. Kalajeâs lawyer has denied the charges.
Thatâd be the al-Tawhid thug who was running Zarqawiâs ops out of Germany. | ||
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #30 .. and I left out: Echo Lil Dhimmi |
| Posted by: Hyper 2004-3-12 3:20:47 PM |
| #29 ETA? Al Qaeda? Who cares? Fuck 'em both. The reality is that this is a War on Terrorists. They are all terrorists, they all need to be un-membered. Both have killed, both will kill, both need to be killed. |
| Posted by: Hyper 2004-3-12 3:17:12 PM |
| #28 Tactically speaking, what would ETA have gained from escalating their campaign at this moment, right before the elections? Why would the ETA, which has discrete, identifiable territory that could be subject to retaliation by authorities, have decided that this was a good move to further their cause? As for the argument thus far, why is it assumed that the ETA could be using Al Qaeda as a tool for plausible deniability, but the opposite (that Al Qaeda struck in a manner to sow dissension within Spain and fuel strikes against Basque separatists with the full knowledge that this terrorist attack might be blamed on ETA) has not been countenanced? |
| Posted by: mjh 2004-3-12 2:27:54 PM |
| #27 ETA has just denied responsibility for the attack, through a Basque paper theyve used for statements in the past. ETA has denied responsibility. An Islamic group has claimed responsibility. EVERYTHING else, about methods, motivations, etc is UNCLEAR, with alternative explanations possible either way, and with difficulties either way. I still claim that while there are lots of possibilities, Occams dictates Islamist involvement as the working hypothesis. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 1:27:18 PM |
| #26 Missing? Is there an official missing count? |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-3-12 1:05:15 PM |
| #25 There has been a 199th death: a toddler. His parents are missing and probably dead. I don't know if this is a bad thing or a good thing since the suffering of their baby's death has been spared to them. May the ones who perpetrated this, may the ones who give them comfort, may the ones who "understand" them be hanged. Pero colgarlos por los huevos. But hanged by the balls. |
| Posted by: JFM 2004-3-12 12:24:15 PM |
| #24 There has been a 199th death: a toddler. His parents are missing and probably dead. I don't know if this is a bad thing or a good thing since the suffering of their baby's death has been spared to them. May the ones who perpetrated this, may the ones who give them comfort, may the ones who "understand" them be hanged. Pero colgarlos por los huevos. But hanged by the balls. |
| Posted by: JFM 2004-3-12 12:23:56 PM |
| #23 There is another explanation for that truck. It appears to have been stolen in February already. The tape found is one that helps "new muslims" to learn Qoran verses (by reciting them). That means it's meant for "beginners" (children or new converts. You'd think islamic terrorists are a bit more advanced in their "religion of peace". The tape could simply belong to the owner of the stolen truck. I'm still sticking to my "radical ETA faction theory". Although that doesn't exclude contacts with Islamic jihadis. LH you raise a good point. The Baader Meinhof Group (later RAF) tried to "convince" the Germans into believing that they lived in a pseudo-totalitarian state. They did have their share of radical leftist supporters. But in the end people didn't buy it. The RAF failed in bombing Germany into a repressive state. In the end the RAF pretty much gave up and dissolved. It's possible that ETA is at that point but a small radical faction isn't ready to concede failure and embraces the AQ methods now. Hell the Basques enjoy more autonomy than the Bavarians! Occam's Razor still has the ETA option as the simpliest... for now. But it's true that Spain's famous judge Baltasar Garzón (who opposed Iraq) had warned Aznar not to join the coalition. "Lo único que va a generar esta guerra injusta es el aumento de terrorismo integrista a medio y largo plazo...Su crecimiento en otros puntos, entre ellos España, es algo tan evidente como terrible y usted no quiere o no sabe verlo" So Aznar really prefers the ETA version. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-3-12 11:50:58 AM |
| #22 "but it's far from a requirement, and the evidence for it at the moment is flimsy indeed" evidence 1. a coordinated attack by numerous bombers, at a landmark building (the Atocha station) AQ's trademark. Yes ETA could be copying. But this is not that easy to pull off (despite some comments about how all you need is wristwatches)and ETA is apparently a wounded organization 2. Islamist orgs in Londonistan claiming credit on behalf of AQ, while ETA is silent. (yes, they could BOTH have reasons to shift blame to AQ) 3. The van with the Koran and the detonators (well yes, that could be a red herring planted by ETA or by some Islamists, to reinfore 2) 4. The date, on the anniversary of 9/11. (See 2 and 3) The evidence for Islamists is far from flimsy. Of course ALL of it could be planted as part of a conspiracy to throw off the hunt. But barring evidence that it MUST have been ETA, and couldnt have been islamists (so far i only see the A. The use of a particular explosive, which is commercially available and B. The absence of suicide bombers, which is not confirmed yet, and is not probative, anyway) Occams Razor would suggest an Islamist attack as at least the working hypothesis. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 10:23:26 AM |
| #21 I say we just blame the whole thing on both ETA and Al-Qaeda, and punish them both for it. Would either of these groups really be innocent of any wrong doing even if they weren't involved? They are both terrorist groups. Kill em' all! |
| Posted by: Lil Dhimmi 2004-3-12 10:18:18 AM |
| #20 i certainly didnt mean to say that Aznar was like Paisley. The point I was trying to make is that a hardline govt is NOT necessarily always something terrorists dislike, if it helps them gain versus there more moderate rivals. Yeah, I know Blairs made concessions. Now my question is, has that strengthened the Real IRA? Yes I know terrorism predated 9/11 in Europe, and hasnt always been . I remember the Brigati Rossi and the Baader-Meinhof. I was repulsed that my some of my fellow New Yorkers sent money to the IRA. We also had non-Islamic terrorism in the US - do you remember Oklahoma City? we do. But Im still trying to get my arms around ETA's motivations for doing this, at this time(which I know are obvious to you). We should all wait for further evidence, to be sure, but at this point it seems just as possible that this was Islamists, or ETA subcontracting to Islamists, as that it was a 100% ETA operation. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 10:14:41 AM |
| #19 No one in mainstream Euro politics can compare to Paisley. I heard Paisley speak to a largely hostile audience over 30 years ago and left the hall and thought to myself that I would never hear a better public speaker in my life. Its probably the only prediction I made at the stage in my life that came true. I subsequently met and talked with the man and remain convinced he was the most talented person I have ever met in my life. And to give you context I was strongly sympathetic to the republican position at the time. |
| Posted by: Phil B 2004-3-12 9:52:42 AM |
| #18 Is that supposed to be coherent, LH?!!! Are you trying to compare Aznar to Ian Paisley over David Trimble? That's just nuts. No one in mainstream Euro politics can compare to Paisley. And if I was the Real IRA, I'd sure as hell prefer Labour over the Tories to be in UK government. The Lib Dems would be a dream, but that just ain't gonna happen. Haven't you noticed the governments' legion concessions to Republicanism since Blair came to office? As for idelogical blinders, I think too many people here have forgotten that terrorism's been around in Europe since long before 9/11. Yes, an Islamic element may have been involved in yesterday's bombings, but it's far from a requirement, and the evidence for it at the moment is flimsy indeed. Have you read John's analysis on Iberian Notes? |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-3-12 9:29:42 AM |
| #17 BD - the blogger you cite has this quote on the top of his page, which presumably describes him "The Sexy Scourgers of Spanish Socialism" I think you'll forgive me if i dont take his word that ETA wants PP to lose the election. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 9:20:40 AM |
| #16 see, im one the folks who think that the Paleoterrorists tendency to boom in large number just when an Israeli Labour govt is facing reelection is NOT just coincidence. They set up a string of booms that knocked Peres out and basically elected Netanyahu in 1996. They unleased the second intifida in 2000, just before the Israeli election, insuring Baraks defeat and the election of Sharon. One of the reasons I dont take Pal complaints about "hardline Sharon" seriously - they basically elected him, for reasons that are not too hard to fathom. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 9:17:29 AM |
| #15 "... Soft-on-terror left wing government elected... Too late (after election) - authorities pin blame on ETA... ETA resurgence..." what did i tell ya - based on the equation "PSOE victory = ETA resurgence" |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 9:13:05 AM |
| #14 "Not a further step towards Basque independence, that much is sure" well bulldog seems to think that an Islamist attack hurts the PP, and that ETA wants PSOE to win, since theyre not as "hardline" as PP. Ive seen elsewhere someone say that ETA actually DOES want PP to win, since PSOE by reaching a peaceful settlement with the Basques would undercut ETA. So its like, if youre the Real IRA, would you rather see Ian Paisley do well or David Trimble? Would you rather see the Tories win a UK election or Labour?? I think some folks here may be letting their ideological blinders ("the terrorists like the socialists") get in the way of strategic analysis. I also agree with Dan, that it doesnt make sense to reduce AQ's agenda to Iraq. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-3-12 9:11:29 AM |
| #13 ...what exactly was accomplished by yesterday's atrocities? Not a further step towards Basque independence, that much is sure. Proximity to the elections... Majority of Spaniards already hostile to Aznar's role in the WoT... Make the bomb look like Islamist work... Scare and/or enrage electorate... Backlash against Aznar and PP at the ballot box... Soft-on-terror left wing government elected... Too late (after election) - authorities pin blame on ETA... ETA resurgence... Scroll down Iberian Notes to Why I am convinced ETA did it for John's (insider's) take. Ask yourself - right now, what have ETA to lose, and what have they to gain? He also reports the authorities may have pictures of some of the perps caught in the act. |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-3-12 9:11:05 AM |
| #12 Garrison: I'm sure there's no law prohibiting the Basques from having Koranic audiotapes but the whole point of engaging in apocalyptic terrorism like this is to claim responsibility for it, not to try and pin the blame on al-Qaeda or a related group. Otherwise, what exactly was accomplished by yesterday's atrocities? Not a further step towards Basque independence, that much is sure. As far as the lack of suicide bombers, at least one unconfirmed media report has stated that there was at least one and the investigation is still ongoing in this regard. As for the ETA van being intercepted just 2 weeks ago, that actually argues AGAINST them being behind the attack, IMO. They aren't that terribly large an organization to begin with and their capabilities have been heavily degraded over the last several years thanks to Aznar's crackdowns. So I figure the intercepted van w/ explosives was likely their big plan for some election atrocities and that it was thwarted. The fact that the same kinds of explosives were found in of itself doesn't prove anything one way or another given that the type involved appears to be a commercial model. With regard to France raising its terror alert, do you really think that al-Qaeda gives a damn as far as who opposed or supported the war in Iraq? Turkey more or less opposed it, but that didn't save them from the Istanbooms. More to the point, Ayman took the opportunity to rant on the French hijab ban in his latest audiotape. For what it's worth, this is my own supposition, I am making no pretenses for it being the absolute truth. |
| Posted by: Dan Darling 2004-3-12 8:49:36 AM |
| #11 I never said he was wrong; I just said his tic is getting a bit annoying. He seems pissed off that people are speculating. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-3-12 8:46:01 AM |
| #10 It's pompOUS, Mr. Crawford. For what it's worth, my money's on Garrison being right... |
| Posted by: P Ass 2004-3-12 8:35:34 AM |
| #9 Robert, I don't see all caps in his comments... looks like it's punctuated correctly to me... |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2004-3-12 8:29:42 AM |
| #8 Garrison, your constant typing of "facts" in all caps makes you look like a pompass ass. No offense intended; just pointing it out. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-3-12 8:17:20 AM |
| #7 Dan: The French have not been spared from ETA bombings, kidnapping, murder and robbery. The ETA terrorists captured with bomb backpacks in December and the ETA terrorists captured with a 1,000 pound car bomb last month made their bombs with Titadine stolen from France. France pisses of the ETA whenever they go into the Basque region to arrest an ETA terrorist as they did in December when they picked up an ETA commander. France has a Basque problem. I shall wait for investigators armed with FACTS to make the appropriate conclusions as to what group of terrorists are responsible for the carnage. |
| Posted by: Garrison 2004-3-12 8:04:02 AM |
| #6 France has no Basque problem. Spain has one because, thanks to a protectionist policy who favored Basque industries and was lethal for agricultural South, the Basque region became richer than average. This motivated Sabino de Arana, a Basque who didn't speak a word of Basque, to get a swollen head and start a movement advocating the RACIAL superiority of Basques and their separation of Spain. But France's Basque country, who has a MUCH lower population than its Spanish counterpart, is not an industrial power house, has never been richer than average France and is in the shade of Bordeaux and Pau. So no swollen heads and no significant separatist movement in France. |
| Posted by: JFM 2004-3-12 6:23:13 AM |
| #5 France has a Basque problem and were working a bomb plot threatening the targeting of railways. Spain has a Basque problem and their railways were targeted for bombings. Just a coincidence, Dan? France which opposed the Iraq war elevated their terror alert status. Did Germany? Did Belgium? |
| Posted by: Garrison 2004-3-12 5:34:21 AM |
| #4 Dan: Where is it written only al-Qa'ida terrorists can possess Arabic audiotapes? Does it seem even the least bit "convenient" for the ETA that detonators and an audiotape containing Koranic verses would be planted on the frontseat of a vehicle in plain sight at the nexis of the bombing plot? As the Islamic Fascist terrorists have a preference for martyrdom operations, why is it the "bomb backpacks" were not strapped to al-Qa'ida terrorists when they went boom? It would seem likely guided backpacks full of explosives would kill more people than backpacks left sitting on trains and in stations. How do you explain similar backpacks found in possession of ETA terrorists in December? Just a coincidence? Just a coincidence an ETA van loaded with explosives was intercepted about two weeks back? I await the FACTS. |
| Posted by: Garrison 2004-3-12 5:07:55 AM |
| #3 Lifting a theory from Iberian Notes: Here's the paranoid conspiracy theory that is cropping up in my mind. ETA plants the bombs, and this was clearly an ETA-style job, but tries to make it look like Al Qaeda, or at least bring up the suspicion as best they can--and note that the first person to link the alleged "Arab resistance" group and the massacre in Madrid was none other than ETA mouthpiece Arnaldo Otegui. Their strategy: Piss off the people against Aznar and the PP, their sworn enemies, for getting us in the sights of Al Qaeda. That's a terribly narrow and selfish attitude to have--"Aznar and Bush got these people killed" for daring to use force to stop terrorism. Enough people might have that very attitude, though, that there's a backlash at the polls on Sunday against the PP and they lose the election. That's something ETA would very much like to see. It seems possible. The tape containing verses from the Koran, left in a stolen van left outside a station - its presence would comfortably fit with John's theory. Wonder what was on the other tapes. Music? Western music? Arabic/North African music? It would be interesting to know. The Brigade of Abu Hafs al-Masri also claimed A/Q responsibility for the East coast power blackouts last August. Their letter should be taken with salt. So far, the MO, for sheer scale and complexity, looks more A/Q than ETA but the materials used all apparently point towards ETA. And there's plenty of evidence that ETA have been planning similar attacks themselves recently. To me, it still looks like an ETA job, with a yet-to-be-established A/Q contribution. |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2004-3-12 4:41:46 AM |
| #2 Maybe, cash strapped after authorities arrested everybody else, the ETA sold what they stole? |
| Posted by: cingold 2004-3-12 1:58:37 AM |
| #1 There aren't a lot of English citations for Titadine (almost sounds dirty) on the web but several of the Spanish citations seem to indicate that Titadine is a brand name for dynamite, i.e. "dynamite (trade)marked Titadine." Apparently ETA stole a big batch from Brittany (the French province, not the pop-tart) some years ago. |
| Posted by: 11A5S 2004-3-12 1:36:03 AM |