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| Germany: Turkey far from approval to join the EU |
| 2004-03-03 |
| So Turkey gave in to French threats, refused US permission to enter Iraq from the north (which would have allowed us to control the Sunni triangle and strongly reduce potential organization and attacks there) -- and is getting zilch except vague promises in return. Wish I could say I was sorry ... While the question of Turkish EU membership is expected to become a major issue in the European Parliament election campaign in Germany, a new German report says that Turkey is far from being politically ready to join the EU. A study published on Monday (1 March) by the Osteuropa-Institut, a Munich-based research institute, says it is "not very likely" that Ankara will meet the European Union’s democratic and human rights criteria before the end of this year. Next December, the EU member states are set to decide whether accession negotiations with Turkey will be opened. Technically, Ankara needs to fully achieve the political criteria before it can enter membership talks. The European Commission will publish a crucial assessment on the issue next autumn. The Munich institute says that although "remarkable efforts" towards political reform have been made by Turkish governments in the last few years, reforms remain essentially bound to the formal legal sphere. However, the practical effect of the reforms remains limited, the report states, "Despite formal judicial progress, citizens’ rights are not yet fully guaranteed". Among other issues, the report mentions the practice of torture and the limited freedom of speech and religion as examples of continuing violation of human rights in the country. The Munich researchers conclude that Turkey will need "considerable time" to meet the EU’s political criteria. The study by the think-tank is set to be used by German and other opponents of the Turkish bid to enter the EU, as it also predicts that Turkish membership could cost the Union up to 14 billion euro a year. In this scenario, based on the assumption that current EU agricultural and other funding policies remain unchanged, Germany alone would have to contribute 2.5 billion euro to each year. sounds like this is one major reason the Turks will be kept out The report further predicts "considerable migration pressure" of Turks to Germany if Turkey joins the EU. The "migration potential" is estimated between 0.5 and 4.4 million people. Moreover, the paper projects a major shift of power within the EU. and this is the second and even bigger one Not only would Turkey become the second largest EU member state, having an influence "similar to that of Germany", but the balance of power would also largely favour the poorer EU countries. In the event of Turkish accession, 15 countries, accounting for only 9% of the wealth [GDP] of the EU, would together hold 41% of the European Parliament seats and 43% of the votes in the European Council. |
| Posted by:anon |
| #12 rkb - I'm no expert, but I think talk of the Turkish Military stepping in to control things is highly overrated. Everyone says that - and maybe at one time that was true. But I have seen nothing lately to support the claim. It's always, "if things go badly, they will step in". Well their Military sat back as Turkey completely screwed us and either didn't care or were impotent to stop it. AQ said the Americans couldn't handle blood and all they had to do was kill Americans and put it on TV and we'd go home. That was true when pre 9-11, but it's not true today. Military members get old and retire. I just question if that wisdom is still true anymore. |
| Posted by: B 2004-3-3 11:03:46 PM |
| #11 Again, I agree with most of your points TGA, but I think you also discount the influence of the military on the public. Incirlik has played an important role in Turkey's defense and the US were the primary voice urging NATO to affirm its obligations to Turkey in the event of reprisals. I'm not saying the Turks would have been HAPPY about the 4th ID going in through the north, but I think it's conceivable it would have agreed if France and Germany - and in particular, Germany - had backed that move. And that, I think, would have saved many lives. |
| Posted by: rkb 2004-3-3 7:49:48 PM |
| #10 I wouldn't exclude some EU-pressure (or rather French pressure) on Turkey but no, I don't think that this influenced Turkey's decision a lot. Hell, they had 15bn dollars on the table to weigh against possible EU subsidies in the future. No, Turkey's obstruction did not have much to do with the EU. Rather with the fact that the war was extremely unpopular in Turkey (more than 90% opposed it) and that, of course, Turkey is playing its own not so little game with Northern Iraq. The ultimate goal for Turkey is Kirkuk. And thats worth so much more than 15bn dollars. What Turkey wants is a deeply destabilized Iraq which will lead to a break away Kurdish state. The Turks will then "wipe out" Kurdish terrorists, "stop ethnic cleansing" in Kirkuk and Mosul (Kurds throwing out the Arabs) and install themselves permanently while the U.S. (busy with Sunni and Shiite terrorism and civil war) will look away. That's the Turkish strategy. May not work. But I think that's what they have in mind. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-3-3 5:19:01 PM |
| #9 B> "his" first point. 'Aris' is my preferred transcribing of the name that's in English-speaking countries usually spelled 'Ares', and the god of war will be pissed-off if you consider him female. :-) It's also short for 'Aristotelis', the Greek form of 'Aristotle'. rkb> Even in the most optimistic for it scenario, Turkey knew full-well that it wouldn't enter the Union sooner than Bulgaria and Romania did -- and that's in 2007, if all goes well. And if the Union doesn't solve efficiently its own voting and vetoing conflicts, I wouldn't be that sure of even Bulgaria and Romania entering yet. |
| Posted by: Aris Katsaris 2004-3-3 4:56:06 PM |
| #8 wow! I actually agree with Aris on her first point. Jeesh...that's scary. I better reevaluate my belief that the Turks just downright screwed us because they thought they could.. and the shiny EU object was just icing for their cake. |
| Posted by: B 2004-3-3 4:28:36 PM |
| #7 TGA, I agree with two of your points, but note the reference to "considerable time". Turkey was enticed with the strong suggestion that accession talks would begin this year and that's almost certainly not going to happen. |
| Posted by: rkb 2004-3-3 4:27:26 PM |
| #6 First of all, the Osteuropa-Institut is an independent institution in Munich. Their reports don't follow government orders. And the report says that Turkey is not ready YET, not THIS YEAR, which is obvious to everyone. Turkey has made significant progress but it doesn't fulfill the political and economical standards of an EU member yet. I think the Turks know that very well themselves. Schroeder has actually sent the message to Turkey that the door remains open... and so it should. Turkey's importance will grow over the years. As for the "small countries": You bet that those who will benefit most from joining the EU now will be those who will be keener than others to keep the even poorer Turks out. Personally I believe that Turkey will join the EU in the end, if they stay on track. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-3-3 4:07:39 PM |
| #5 Dan can speak for his own comment, but I think you're offbase Aris. Dan is referencing Chirac's outburst towards other EU countries when he says "little" - he is suggesting that the German report treats Turkey as badly as Chirac treated Poland, Czechoslovakia etc. My own opinion is that the European attitude towards Turkey is complex and rests on multiple factors. Religion plays a part, so does race to some degree; certainly historic events play a part, as any Greek knows. Re: Turkey's choices wrt Iraq, it certainly is the case that de Villepin in particular, and the Greek president of the EU at the time, threatened Ankara with slowing down consideration of Turkish EU entry if they did allow the US 4th ID to enter from the north. No doubt there were other factos at work - including factors that would tend towards having Turkey approve that move. In the end, the French / EU pressure was a significant part of the decision, as senior Turkish leaders admitted at the time. |
| Posted by: rkb 2004-3-3 3:19:09 PM |
| #4 Aris: So Turkey didn't get scammed by the French? Sure seems like it did to me. |
| Posted by: Secret Master 2004-3-3 3:16:38 PM |
| #3 I'm not certain which of the three is most ridiculous -- 1) thinking that Turkey's choices in Iraq all had to do with the eeevil EU, 2) calling "old Europe" racist because of her attitude towards Turkey (is it Muslims or Turks that you are calling a race now? I thought we weren't allowed to call anti-Islam attitudes "racist" since Islam is not a race?), or 3) even more obviously the fact that you called Turkey, which would be the second largest country in Europe, a "little country". Compared to what? China? Yeah, compared to China, Turkey is a little country. Compared to most European nations, Turkey is a frigging large country, population-wise. |
| Posted by: Aris Katsaris 2004-3-3 2:49:09 PM |
| #2 turkey once again bitch slapped by eurotrash.....turkey risked alot trying to please the euros...it's all a charade...old europe was-is-and will be racist....now you little countries you should learn to keep your mouth shut... |
| Posted by: Dan 2004-3-3 1:29:02 PM |
| #1 15 countries, accounting for only 9% of the wealth [GDP] of the EU, would together hold 41% of the European Parliament seats Only slightly worse than the US Senate. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-3-3 12:13:45 PM |