As prospects for early elections faded, several Iraqi leaders said Thursday that they wanted the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council to remain in place after the United States transferred power back to the people on June 30. Plans are already under way to expand the council. The leaders, including representatives from the major ethnic and religious groups and members of the council, said a consensus had emerged to increase the current council of 25 people to as many as 125, and to keep it in power until United Nations-assisted elections could be held in early 2005.
| The IGC is the closest thing Iraq has ever had to a representative government. Ever. |
Several council members said the plan appeared to have cleared a potentially major obstacle: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most powerful Shiite cleric, indicated that he would accept an enlarged council as long as this was part of the United Nations recommendation. It was the ayatollah’s call for early elections that brought the United Nations to Iraq in the first place. "We have no other choice now," said one of the leaders, Yonadam Kanna, head of the Assyrian Democratic Party and a council member. "We are in the middle of a process and we can’t have Iraq go in a random direction. The key now is to reach out to more groups so the people feel we represent them."
| I think expanding it too much more would make it too unwieldly, though I guess if you think of it as a proto-legislature rather than as a cabinet with a rotating presidencey it makes sense... |
Although council members have not decided yet how new members should be selected, several agreed that it would be important to demonstrate independence from the Americans to win the people’s trust. The move to extend the council’s rule represented another complication in the Bush administration’s vision for a quick transfer of power. As late as this week, American officials were still clinging to an agreement, signed with Iraqi leaders in November, that called for the council to be replaced on June 30 and for a new Iraqi government to be selected by nationwide caucuses.
| I guess it could be replaced by an expanded version of itself, perhaps with functions widened to include legislation... |
Several Iraqi politicians said the caucus plan was dead because it was too cumbersome and too foreign a concept to work here. "The caucuses have been discarded," said Adnan Pachachi, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council. At a news conference on Thursday, L. Paul Bremer III, the top American administrator, said there were now "dozens" of possibilities of how to transfer authority. But the one fixed point was the June 30 deadline. "The date holds," he said.
| Sounds like most of the likely alternatives will be acceptable, implying none involve bloody-handed dictators or glowering ayatollahs. |
Several times on Thursday, Mr. Bremer deferred to the United Nations, saying he was not going to make any decisions until the organization issued its recommendations on what to do about Iraq. "On all of these matters, we are going to wait until we hear what the secretary general has to say," he said.
| Which tells me we don't particularly care. Things are set up so that it'd be hard for the UN to screw them up... |
Senior United Nations officials said they might not be ready to share their recommendations for another week, past the Feb. 28 deadline for an interim constitution. "It’s a bit disappointing that the U.N. can’t make a recommendation, and that in fact imposes a delay," said Feisal al-Istrabadi, the legal adviser to Mr. Pachachi, who sits on the constitution committee. "They took a long time to come out here."
| They're not known for blinding speed. Or for competence. Or for effectiveness... |
The interim constitution is a crucial milestone in the transition to independence. Before it can become law, the document must spell out how a new government will be selected by the end of 2005. On Thursday, a fiery Shiite cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, said Iraqis might rebel if the constitution did not enshrine Islamic law, in answer to Mr. Bremer’s earlier comments indicating that he would veto a constitution that did so.
| On the other hand, Moqtada's opinion counts for nothing. He's an irritant, not a factor... |
The members of the Governing Council, appointed in July by American administrators, have long sought to remain in office. Many are exiles who had not lived in Iraq for years. Some people, even within the Governing Council, said it was time to move on. "For many of my colleagues, their ideas about what is best for Iraq are clouded by their desire to keep their own jobs," said Mahmoud Othman, a council member and leader of the Kurdish Socialist Party. "It’s quite selfish."
Mr. Othman said several of his colleagues had used the issue of early elections as a way to press American administrators to keep the council intact. He said that when the council signed the original agreement on its formation in November, many members hoped to negotiate to keep their own jobs. But when American officials refused to budge, Mr. Othman said, discontented members went to Ayatollah Sistani and encouraged him to call for elections, knowing they were not possible. "He’s the most powerful man in Iraq, and they manipulated him," he said. Senior Shiite leaders dismissed Mr. Othman’s remarks, saying they wanted elections for their own sake. Mr. Othman said he would prefer disbanding the council and replacing it with a much larger assembly of tribal elders, professional leaders and religious figures. "But my view is the minority," he said.
| I doubt it'll disband. I suspect it'll grow, by adding in those tribal elders, professional leaders, and religious figures. My preference would be that the religious figures be excluded, not that anyone gives a fig about my preference... |
Mr. Pachachi said the leading plan called for an expanded council to preside over the country while United Nations experts begin laying the groundwork for nationwide elections. Many council members said this week that members of the United Nations team, led by an Algerian diplomat, Lakhdar Brahimi, had told them they would need about nine months to get the country ready. That, Mr. Pachachi said, probably means that nationwide elections for a new government could be held in January 2005, to be followed by a constitutional convention and elections for a more permanent government later in the year. Ideas for expanding the council range from doubling its current size, to 50, or even expanding to 125 members. Some Iraqi leaders said a larger council would probably serve as a national assembly and would choose a cabinet and a prime minister, calling upon tribal leaders and religious figures to nominate candidates.
| That's what I suspect is going to happen. I wonder how long it'll be before Saddoun Hammadi runs for office? |
Members said the crucial test would be whether the new council was viewed as legitimate by Iraqis. The current council is seen by many as a tool of American interests. "Now, the Americans have to stay away," said Abdil Abdul Mahdi, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a leading Shiite party. "Anything we do, we have to be able to defend in front of our people." |