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Terror Networks
Regional terror groups seen as growing threat
2004-02-07
The landscape of the terrorist threat has shifted, many intelligence officials around the world say, with more than a dozen regional militant Islamic groups showing signs of growing strength and broader ambitions, even as the operational power of Al Qaeda appears diminished.
That’s because they’re all part of Binny’s International Front. Since al-Qaeda has been hit hard over the last couple of years, the group is now having its affiliates fold back into the core in order to strengthen it, hence the merger last fall between al-Qaeda, the GSPC, and the Yemeni groups.
Some of the militant groups, with roots from Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus to North Africa and Europe, are believed to be loosely affiliated with Al Qaeda. But others follow their own agenda, merely drawing inspiration from Osama bin Laden’s periodic taped messages calling for attacks against the United States and its allies.
Yet the money flows in from the same source, as does most of the training and leadership. It’s more or less the subsidiary principle taken to a whole new level.
The smaller groups have shown resilience in resisting the efforts against terrorism led by the United States, officials said, by establishing terrorist training camps in Kashmir, the Philippines and West Africa, filling the void left by the destruction of Al Qaeda’s camps in Afghanistan. But what is also worrisome to counterterrorism officials is evidence that, like Al Qaeda, some of them are setting their sights beyond the regional causes that inspired them.
We already knew about the camps in Kashmir and Mindanao. West Africa is a new one for me, I’m guessing that it refers to the al-Qaeda/GSPC bases in the Algerian Sahara or else to operations that were set up in Liberia or Burkina Faso. Northern Nigeria is also a definite possibility.
The Islamic militant organization, Ansar al-Islam, for example, has largely fled its base in northern Iraq and elements of the group have moved to several European countries where they are believed to be actively recruiting suicide bombers for attacks in Iraq and Europe, officials said.
That’s because the Ansar are little more than an arrow in the quiver of al-Tawhid, which is run by Zarqawi, who works for Binny. It’s really not all that complicated ...
The mutation of the cells was illustrated last October when the authorities in Australia arrested a Caribbean-born French citizen who they believe was sent by a little-known Pakistani group to scout possible targets for attacks. The group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, was previously thought to be focused only on the struggle of Muslims in Kashmir.
The LeT has been sending jihadis abroad to fight in Chechnya and Mindanao for years. This was just the first time that they started targeting Australia, here again at the behest of al-Qaeda. There’s been some speculation that the LeT is being used by al-Qaeda to fill the role of being the public face of the International Front while the latter remains underground.
The activity of such organizations is one reason intelligence officials believe that the threat of terrorism against the United States and its allies remains high. But the mobility and murky associations of the groups, most of which were operating before the Sept. 11 attacks, makes it difficult for agents to monitor their communications or follow their money. "They are like little time bombs that have been sent out into the world," said Gwen McClure, an F.B.I. agent and the director of counterterrorism at Interpol, the international police organization based in Lyon, France. "You never know where it might go off."
Most of these organizations existed before 9-11-01. The the WTC attacks not taken place we still wouldn't be aware of what's going on. Bad strategic move by Binny...
The deepening concern about the strength of the regional groups comes as Al Qaeda is described by officials as having been hobbled by the capture or killing of its top lieutenants and less capable of mounting an attack like the one on Sept. 11. Evidence of Al Qaeda’s activity continues to set off alarms, like the cancellation of several recent trans-Atlantic flights from Britain and France to the United States because of security concerns.
But I'd bet that even had the attacks succeeded, they'd have been carried out by members of the subsidiary organizations...
Beyond the recent concerns about Al Qaeda, counterterrorism officials in a dozen counties say they are also occupied by trying to understand the workings of obscure groups that appear capable of carrying out attacks without the financial or logistical support of Mr. bin Laden. "Al Qaeda’s biggest threat is its ability to inspire other groups to launch attacks, usually in their own countries," said a senior intelligence official based in Europe. "I’m most worried about the groups that we don’t know anything about."
Except for pickup teams, like in northern Nigeria last month, I don't think we'll see many "unknown groups," except in places where we haven't been looking for terrorism. It takes money, coordination, and training to form a high-caliber terror organization — one strong enough to be of any danger to the state. That sort of thing gets noticed, even in the PC USA — I've no doubt that the FBI keeps an eye on the doings of al-Fuqra, for instance.
That view was reflected at a meeting of police officials from the Asian Pacific region and Europe organized by Interpol in late January in Bali. In conversations there and in interviews throughout Europe officials voiced concern about the threat of regional terrorist networks, which they said would not be reduced even if Mr. bin Laden was captured or killed.
But the big money would be cut off, until the princes found another conduit. They'd have to get by on the proceeds of donation boxes in the mosques...
Many officials said they doubted that Mr. bin Laden was directing operations, although several officials said they believed that he was using couriers to deliver hand-written messages to associates in Pakistan. "From a cave in the mountains, how much can he do?" one official asked.
That situation changes dramatically if he’s staying at an IRGC military base with Ayman though, don’t it?
The officials said their view of Al Qaeda had changed. The terror network today is different from the Qaeda that existed before Sept. 11; a "credible argument can be made that it’s finished," said a senior Australian official. "However," he added, "to talk about it being finished is to ignore what it is." He said it was more accurate to see it as a movement of individuals who view the United States and the West as the enemy. "Every day around the world, we are discovering Al Qaeda members and cells previously unknown," he said.
But not organizations. Mapping critical nodes gives you the network. F'rinstance, everybody who Abu Qatada is considered to be a part of his network. The ones in his network that talk to somebody outside the network considered runners. They lead you to another node — say, Zarqawi. Everybody who talks to Zarqawi is a member of his network, and he has a separate set of runners for each node he's connected with, for instance Basayev and Mullah Krekar. Once the nodes are outlined, which I suspect has been done, their functions have to be identified, and that can lead to more "runners" in the form of electronic "talk" via phone or internet or bank transaction. It all depends on good intel collection, though.
Most of the members of the regional terror groups trained at the Qaeda camps, counterterrorism officials say. Still, most officials say they consider it unlikely that the regional groups could pull off an attack on the scale of Sept. 11. But they said interrogations of captured terror suspects and other intelligence have made it clear that the groups have the training, explosives and money to strike "soft targets," similar to attacks last year in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Indonesia.
The downside to that is that every time they do it, with the notable exception of Soddy Arabia, they get the heads chopped off their organizations. The organizations get expended like bullets, instead of being used as weapons systems.
In recent months, terrorists in Saudi Arabia have tried to assassinate senior government officials. Qaeda operatives are believed to be behind some of the attempted killings, but a previously unidentified group, which calls itself Al Haramain Brigades, or the Two Mosques Brigades, said in a statement in January that it had tried to kill Maj. Gen. Abdelaziz al-Huweirini, Saudi Arabia’s top counterterrorism official and the No. 3 official in the Interior Ministry. Senior American officials confirmed that in early December, General Huweirini was the target of a shooting attack in which his brother was wounded.
I suspect they're "unrelated" to Qaeda in the same sense JI is "unrelated." There's a small handful of people who're associated with Binny running a semi-independent operation.
Several senior counterterrorism officials based in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region said they suspected that local and regional groups were coordinating their activities, but without direct contact with Mr. bin Laden or his lieutenants.
The evidence would seem to suggest otherwise.
They point to the May 12 suicide bombings of three Western housing compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that killed 25 residents, including 8 Americans. Four days later, in Casablanca, suicide bombers carried out five simultaneous attacks, killing more than 30 people.
The Riyadh bombings were ordered by Saif al-Adel and Zarqawi likewise called in for the attack in Casablanca. How is that not direct contact?
In both cases local groups, with loose ties to Al Qaeda, carried out the attacks. While investigators have not found solid evidence that the attacks were coordinated, "we don’t believe it was mere coincidence," a senior European intelligence official said.
Skipping through what we already know about Brigitte ...
But the most unusual part of the case is that the authorities believe that Mr. Brigitte was a low-ranking member of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant Pakistani group that was formed a decade ago with help from Pakistan’s intelligence service to fight against India in Kashmir. The group was not known to have operations outside that region. Before the Taliban were driven from power, Lashkar-e-Taiba trained its men at camps in Afghanistan alongside Qaeda camps. Even though the group was banned by Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, it continues to exist with training camps in Kashmir, officials said.
A minor detail, no doubt ...
That's Pak Kashmir, not Indian Kashmir...
Mr. Brigitte had contacts with Lashkar-e-Taiba members in the United States, Canada and Europe, a senior law enforcement official with knowledge of the interrogation of Mr. Brigitte said. When Mr. Brigitte was discovered, the Australian authorities had been on the lookout for members Jemaah Islamiyah — which has been viewed as a Qaeda affiliate in Southeast Asia — trying to slip into the country.
I’m not exactly sure why it’s so shocking that Brigitte would have triple membership in al-Qaeda, LeT, and JI. I can be a member of multiple departments in a corporation too ...
Skipping past a primer on JI ...
Still, counterterrorism officials in the region say the group is recruiting and reorganizing and training men in the Philippines. It has a dedicated cadre and access to large caches of explosives, which make it a continuing serious threat. It may also be switching tactics, to the assassination of important Westerners and the use of bicycles for suicide attacks, a senior Indonesian intelligence officer said recently.
Skipping past a primer on Ansar al-Islam ...
The blurring of boundaries is also the case in Algeria, where the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, better known by its initials as the G.S.P.C., is growing more powerful and expanding its geographical operations. A year ago, G.S.P.C. kidnapped a group of European tourists, including nine Germans. The hostages were released after the German government paid a ransom of more than $1 million. The money has allowed the group to buy weapons, including sophisticated antiaircraft missiles.
From whom?
G.S.P.C. has increased its activities in Mali and Niger in recent months, officials from several countries said. The officials say the group’s leaders are suspected of setting up training camps in West Africa and of plotting attacks in those countries. But a senior Western official said finding the camps would be nearly impossible. "That’s no man’s land," he said.
The GSPC is also, by the word of their own leader, part of Binny’s shadow army. I’m still trying to figure out the level of resistance for recognizing the terror machine for what it is ...
Posted by:Dan Darling

#1  believe was sent by a little-known Pakistani group to scout possible targets for attacks

I'm sure Lashkar-e-Taiba will be better known soon enough. Unlike Al Qaeda, LeT has been able to expand their infrastructure for the past decade without any arrests to disrupt them, apart from the commanders killed off in Kashmir.
But due to their transnational nature, if nothing else, I think LeT has to rank in the top tier of terrorist organisation, with Al Qaeda, Hezballah, al Tawhid and JI.
Posted by: Paul Moloney   2004-2-7 6:58:05 PM  

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