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| Middle East |
| Maybe Israel should encourage Hamas et al to try kidnapping |
| 2004-01-30 |
| Not an article I’ve been trying to figure out in my own demented mind why Israel would negotiate such an obviously lopsided deal with Hizbollah. After much thinking I pondered a ’game theory’ explanation. Obviously, by using ’game theory’ I don’t mean to belittle the horrible consequences of these games. If Israel can get Hamas to play the ’kidnapping’ game instead of the ’suicide bombing’ game, it may be good for Israel. This is because the kidnapping game requires more sophisticated planning, more recon, more logistics coordination than the ’suicide bombing’ game which mostly requires cannon fodder, a few maps and the bomb hardware - all of which Hamas, IsJihad, etc. have gotten down cold. |
| Posted by:mhw |
| #7 and i think the most likely is number 5 1. theres evidence the PA is close to the point of collapse 2. Israel wants a player at that point - Dahlan and other moderates have already proven themselves to weak - and Israel DOESNT want Hamas and IJ to dominate, however helpful that might be diplomatically. 3. They have a history of counter-intuitive "strange alliances" when they get desperate - eg Hamas during the first intifada - by contrast Hezbollah may look like people they can work with. Before you get all disgusted about working with terrorists remember this is life or death for them. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2004-1-30 2:36:48 PM |
| #6 mhw - of course i dont know, and you could be right, but id think a higher probability to the more conventional reasons. Your hypothesis is still intriguing though. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2004-1-30 2:31:59 PM |
| #5 I dunno--- a long, stretched out "kidnapping/hostage" scenario might be more demoralizing in the long run than the "mass murder by homicide bomber". IIRC, the Iran hostage crisis dominated the front pages for far longer than the Beirut bombing of the Marine barracks. There is always hope for someone held alive, then someone irretriveably dead. Hopes deferred may be more devasting than grief... |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2004-1-30 2:05:09 PM |
| #4 sue bob, Do you mean..." Well the answer is 'sort of'. It is not so much a matter of 'more' resources; rather a matter of 'different' resources structured differently. The more complex an operation, the more difficult and the more complex an operation, the easier it is to detect and counter. Israel may have reason to think it has greater intel capacity than formerly (maybe because some of the releasees have been compromised) and feel more confident of thwarting a kidnapping operation. Of course, LH disagrees (I think) and has 5 more conventional hypotheses. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-1-30 1:49:47 PM |
| #3 Please finish the thought. Do you mean that it is good because it ties up more resources and therefore diminishes resources for homicide bombing? I don't get it. |
| Posted by: Sue Bob 2004-1-30 1:28:14 PM |
| #2 I believe Sharon called it "Jewish Emotion". Sadly, it is a far cry from an earlier era of no negotiations with Terrorists. A couple of recent comments: Hezb. saying that they will continue to kidnap. Hamas saying they will copy Hezb. kidnapping plans to free Hamas terrorists. All the while, Israel continues to slowly bleed. |
| Posted by: Daniel King 2004-1-30 12:49:56 PM |
| #1 reasons 1. They have this thing about getting back their own citizens, and their soldiers bodies. Nothing strategic, its just the way they are. 2. They want to make nice with Hezbollah, just to quiet the northern front (i could see this if it was Labor - doesnt sound like Sharon to me) 3. Theyre trying to maneuver Hezb away from Iran/Syria 4. Some variation of 3, but mainly at the initiative of the US, whose good will is badly needed as the security barrier proceeds. 5. They are positioning Hezbollah to have more influence in the territories, as they despair of any alternatives there. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2004-1-30 11:52:47 AM |