Azerbaijan and the United States have taken another step forward in military cooperation. On January 2, 2004, Colonel General Safar Abiyev, Defense Minister of Azerbaijan, and Reno Harnish, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, signed an agreement on "Cooperation for Non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction". Following the signing ceremony, Ambassador Harnish told journalists that under the terms of the agreement, the United States would provide Azerbaijan with $10m in military assistance.
| Compared to the amounts doled out to everybody else in sight, that's chicken feed. |
A comment made by General Abiyev prior to the signing of the agreement drew considerable attention from pundits. During a meeting with the U.S. Ambassador several weeks ago, Abiyev expressed the opinion that "certain forces are taking advantage of the failure to settle the Garabagh [Nagorno-Karabakh] conflict to apply pressure on Azerbaijan". Although the defense minister did not specify to which forces he was referring, he no doubt meant the United States' rivals in the region, who are trying to prevent U.S. military bases in the South Caucasus by any means possible. The Azerbaijani government has not yet expressed its standpoint regarding a U.S. military contingent within its territory. Opinions on the matter vary among the public, however. Some support this plan while others oppose it. And who is for or against the bases? Those working closely with U.S. companies, employees of NGOs receiving assistance from European and U.S. funds as well as those engaged in "importing" democracy support the presence of the United States in the region. Of course, they support U.S. military bases in Azerbaijan. However, opposing the issue are communists, those with business relationships with Russia, and those eager to restore previously close ties with Moscow. And which side is the public inclined towards?
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, 90% of the Azerbaijani public considered integration to the United States and the West a fair way to dispose of the Russian Empire and maintain sovereignty and territorial integrity. At that time, people wanted U.S. and NATO forces to be deployed in Azerbaijan. But now, the situation is a little different. Many have begun to pay attention to Russia, which holds the key to resolution of the Garabagh conflict, Azerbaijan's most outstanding problem. More significant, however, is the United States and leading European countries double-sided approach, as well as a number of international organizations' biased stance towards Azerbaijan and indirect support for invader Armenia.
Another reason is Russia's improving attitude towards Azerbaijan. Russia is making serious efforts to regain its presence and influence in this country, and is attempting to win over the Azerbaijani public and some state officials. According to pundits, if the West ignores these events and fails to make note of Azerbaijani public opinion, Russia's efforts might work. Russia has a strong lobby, diaspora and media in Azerbaijan; all powerful propaganda tools.
And what does the Azerbaijani public expect from the West? What does it want? In order to give a brief, undiplomatic answer to this question, the Azerbaijani public wants a spade to be called a spade. Namely, it expects the United States and Europe to recognize Armenia as an aggressor for occupying another country's territory. They want the international community to demand execution of the four UN Security Council resolutions adopted in 1993 for immediate liberation of the occupied lands. As to the United States' intention to deploy a military contingent in Azerbaijan, the public is unable to ignore claims by anti-American forces that 'the United States intends to strengthen its military power in the region only in favor of its national interests'. Anti-American forces claim that the troops to be stationed in Azerbaijan may be used not only against the United States' northern and southern rivals but also, if necessary, against Azerbaijan. Using Afghanistan as an example, they claim that due to a lack of military bases, the United States was unable to control situations in this country. Pundits allege that the U.S. corrected that same mistake in Georgia. Now, Azerbaijan is next. There are many who consider Azerbaijan to be at a crossroads. Those hoping to prevent Azerbaijan from integrating to the West and the world community are hoping to take advantage of it. The train is already traveling towards the West, but some forces are waiting for a chance to divert it from the track.
| Azerbaijan's main adversary is Armenia, the main bone of contention being Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a blob of land that's populated by Armenians but located well inside the physical borders of Azerbaijan. When the Soviet Union was falling apart, the local Azeris made an attempt at ethnic cleansing in NG, whereupon the Armenians beat the crap out of them. The Azeris have been stewing about it ever since. It's another of those situations where both sides are in the wrong, and it's a situation it's best for the U.S. not to have an opinion. |
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