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Southeast Asia

"Analysts" say al-Qaeda not behind Thai violence

2004-01-10

Rooters uses scare quotes, after all, so why canât we?
A wave of violence in mainly Muslim southern Thailand is inspired by money and nationalism and shows scant evidence of links to a wider network with Osama bin Ladenâs al Qaeda and its Jemaah Islamiah Asian affiliate, analysts say.

Did they show you their analyst licenses? That sounds like a pretty blanket statement to make a week after the attack, and in the teeth of contrary claims by other people who should be in a position to know. But then, they're not "analysts."

They say the violence, part of an insurgency that has simmered for decades, nevertheless presents a disturbing challenge to a government so far spared the unrest that troubles such neighbours as Indonesia and the Philippines.

I'd call Thailand's government lots of things, but "oppressive" isn't one of them...

"As far as Iâm concerned there is no concrete evidence of links between these groups and international terrorism," says Steve Wilford of Control Risks Group in Singapore.
"Lies! All lies!"
"Their modus operandi -attacking army depots and schools- is not a similar MO to other groups attacking Western targets," he says.
Since when is attacking Western targets a prerequisite for being al-Qaeda? Most of Pakistani, Algerian, and Yemeni nuts who form the bulk of bin Ladenâs legions have never shot at a kufr in their lives, thatâs for the cream of the crop. Theyâre more interested in overthrowing or co-opting their own governments so that they can then fight the West.

You'd expect them to attack army depots early in an insurrection to collect arms, especially with a border that's relatively controlled. And shooting up schools is a hallmark of the Taliban — where it's rumored (see the very next sentence) that the bad guys involved got their training.

Analysts say it is possible that several of those involved in the latest violence gained their spurs in Afghanistan, but discount any close links with al Qaeda.
The lack of close links is like due to the fact that the connection is that of a subsidiary routed through a subsidiary before it reaches the Thai gunnies. From al-Qaeda to JI to the KMM to the Thai Mujahideen.
The choice of targets was a crucial clue to the motives of the Thai insurgents and to their absence of real ties to al Qaeda, which is blamed for the September 11, 2001, attacks, and to Jemaah Islamiah (JI)- accused of the October 2002 Bali bombings. "There are plenty of foreigners in the south but they donât target Westerners," says Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
Neither did the Chechens at first. Give them time.
Thailand was stunned by Sundayâs coordinated raid on an army weapons depot, and the killing of four soldiers, and arson attacks on 21 schools. Schools have long been a target of Muslim, Malay-speaking rebels, who see them as symbols of the rule of the mostly-Buddhist countryâs central government. "If al Qaeda were linked you would see use of sophisticated materials and the schools wouldnât just be torched but blown up with the pupils inside," Tan says.
Maybe itâs just a sign at the kind of inept stooges willing to sign on to its Thai branch instead?

Except that it looks like the schools were torched as a diversion. And the students in a Muslim-majority area would have been their own kiddies...

Some Thai officials take a different view.
So do me and Fred, incidentally ...
General Kitti Rattanachaya, a former army commander in the south and now a government security adviser, says links between militants in the region went back to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, when many foreign Muslims joined the mujahideen. "Those people helped in the war, returned home and set up JI in Indonesia," and groups in Malaysia and Thailand, he says.

Pretty simple, huh?

But Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra says the attackers are mainly involved with crime, arms smuggling and narcotics and "commuted" between Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
So is Abu Sayyaf. Whatâs his point?
Tan cited the failure of al Qaeda, and JI, to gain ground with separatists in Indonesiaâs Aceh region, or among the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines, which has instead opposed involvement in a wider war.
Iâll have some of whatever heâs having.
"When you look at al Qaeda attempts to penetrate separatist movements in Asia they have met only limited success," he says. "Al Qaeda thought they could spread their radical message among Muslims eager to rebel in Asia, but these movements are not interested in wider war." The Thai insurgents may draw inspiration from such groups as al Qaeda and JI but are not believed to share similar goals, let alone financing or training facilities.

Once they're under way, the money will roll in. The training facilities will be made available. And the goals always involve a caliphate.

"They get indirect inspiration through media and information on TV and in the press," says Surin Pitsuwan, a former foreign minister and now an opposition member of parliament from southern Thailand. "They could draw inspiration from the regional environment and from far away, the Middle East and South Asia. But I doubt very much thereâs external involvement."

Not like in Cambodia, for instance...

Suggestions the insurgents get support from fellow Muslims in Malaysia receive some credence, but even there officials say the backing is probably limited by cooperation between the two governments and the weakness of Malaysian groups. "We did not see any strong links between the group in southern Thailand and the JI, but some individuals gave assistance to JI fugitives, like Hambali," says a Malaysian security official. While fraternity existed between the religious movement in southern Thailand and the Muslims across the border in northeast Kelantan state, Malaysian security services had discovered no more sinister links, the official says. "The Thai separatist movement has always been nationalistic in origin," says Tan. "The goal is not a separate Muslim state; the goal is union with Malaysia."

And then Malaysia as part of the caliphate...

Analysts say the insurgency began in the 1970s, reflecting discrimination by the Thai government that had seen a shift in the last two decades but which could have been revived amid the economic difficulties engendered since the 1997 financial crisis. The violence has sparked fears of a revived insurgency in the south, home to most of Thailandâs six million Muslims, about 10% of the total population. The combination of economic problems and religious inspiration from returnees from Afghanistan was potent. "There are similarities with the Abu Sayyaf group, from the point of using religion and ideology as a vehicle for crime," says Wilford, referring to the southern Philippine Muslim group that has increasingly turned to kidnapping and other violent crimes to make money rather than pursue a separate state.
Except Abu Sayyaf seems to be a part-time job for MILF gunnies when they arenât out jihading and Abu Sayyaf also works for Binny and gets its cash from his bro-in-law.
"But I donât think these groups have the broad popular support structure, numbers or motivation to assume a scale to be a deep embarrassment to the government," Wilford says.
None of which are needed to qualify as a terrorist organization, incidentally. November 17 was just one crazy family.

Posted by:Dan Darling

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