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| India-Pakistan |
| Pakistan-India: Same game, new rules |
| 2003-11-28 |
| A ceasefire between Pakistan and India along three of their borders went into effect at midnight on Tuesday. The million-dollar question everyone is asking, though, is how long this United States-sponsored initiative will last. The answer, it appears, is not long. Developments leading up to the ceasefire actually started several weeks ago when, under immense US pressure, Pakistan’s Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI) shut down its "Forward Section 23" in Pakistan’s Azad (Free) Kashmir, which meant the closure of all training camps and ISI operations offices in that region. After the first banning of the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar, they shifted most of their operational forces and training camps to Pakistani Kashmir Not only this, but also under US pressure, Pakistan was asked to provide access to its national data base and records of those involved in terror activities, which, according to the US definition, includes militancy in the name of jihad. For this purpose, a special wing was established in the Federal Investigation Agency of Pakistan (FIA), which normally handles matters related to white-collar crime. The cell has the mandate to compile records of those involved in terror activities, collect their fingerprints and other details, and then enter the data into a mainframe system connected to all FBI offices and US immigration facilities world-wide. As a result of this operation, banned militant outfits that had resumed operations under another name were re-banned, and a number of activists arrested. This time there was a difference, though. The entire records of all suspects and organizations were seized for entry into the "terror database". According to sources close to the Pakistani administration, the US leaned heavily on the Pakistani leadership to force the ISI to abandon its Kashmir operations in mid-stream. Just recently, a new recruitment campaign for militants - to be used in cross-border raids into Indian-administered Kashmir - was started in all big cities. And militant organizations were given huge funds to mobilize their activists and attract new recruits. That was certainly the case with Masood Azhar, who received bags full of rupees in donations for the Jihad. And, it is said, President General Pervez Musharraf held meetings with jihadi leaders in which he assured them that he supported "jihad in Kashmir" with his "heart and soul". After these assurances, the Jamaatut Dawa (formerly the Lashkar-i-Taiba) was encouraged, with all means and resources, to stage a large gathering in Mureedkey, Punjab, where thousands of jihadis gathered and vowed to liberate Kashmir. Maulana Masood Azhar of the Khuddamul Islam (effectively the Jaish-i-Mohammed) was also invited to address the gathering. Before that gathering, Azhar paid frequent visits to the port city of Karachi to revive 32 units out of about 148 that had existed until the Jaish-i-Mohammed was banned. Before the last visit, a big publicity campaign started, with about Rs 50,000 (US$870) paid for wall posters alone. Subsequently, Azhar attracted about 7,000 people to north Karachi’s famous Batha mosque. Azhar was visibly protected by local police. Probably to avoid assassination by Shias, since Azhar is very close to sectarian outfits like the Sipah-e-Sahaba, and regards Shias as infidels just like the Sipah. At this point, a big operation in Kashmir appeared imminent in which it was hoped to force the Indian leadership to resume dialogue on the disputed territory on Pakistan’s terms. Delhi, however, responded by applying all its good offices with Washington. As a result, the ISI’s Mumbai connection, Indian underworld boss Dawood Ibrahim, was declared a "global terrorist" by the US, and the ISI took the decision to close its base operations in Kashmir. The US even said that Dawood resided in Karachi, although he has not been seen there for some time. After a Pakistani newspaper revealed his location, he was relocated to Peshawar and given a new id by his handlers. And then, with the US beginning a new round of pro-Indian posturing, Pakistan committed itself to a change in its mode of operations. Traditionally, jihadis have penetrated into Indian territory from Kashmir, but now the "launching" apparatus has been moved to Karachi for militants to cross the border from Sindh province into India, from where they will either make their way to Kashmir or seek out soft targets in India. There was a time in the seventies and eighties, where the Indians would carry out their own covert actions against Pakistan, but from what I have read, since the early 90’s, the various Indian governments pulled back on covert acts, mostly because of the disastarous case of blowback that occured when the Indians initially supported the Tamil Tigers, and Sikh extremists. Simultaneously, the ISI, flush with success from the Afghan Jihad, increased their covert warfare exponentially. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |