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| Europe |
| Russia on the edge of demographic catastrophe |
| 2003-11-14 |
| Eeeeek! The Chinese are coming, according to Pravda. EFL big time. Russia is on the way to slow extinction. Demographers calculated that by the end of 2075, Russian population will decrease threefold, and on the huge 1/6 of the Earth’s soil but some 50-55mln people will remain. Scientists claim that the "demographical winter", which has frozen the country from the mid 90ies, has been spreading from Russia’s north. Murmansk region is one of the most depressing. No sunlight, no summer, no income, no jobs, rusting navy, no men, women pissed at the few men around, why would any of this be depressing? Rate of population decrease in Russia has no precedent for peaceful time. From 1992 the population has been constantly decreasing, and by 2000 it was 3mln less than in 1992. Only in 11 regions the rate is close to zero (thus, about the same number of people are being born and die), among them Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechen Republic (despite of the wars and rivers of refugees). They’re blasting the bejeebus out of the Chechers and they’re still multiplying faster than everyone else! The rest of Russia is in "demographic coma": in 27 regions number of deaths was 3 times that of births in 2000, in 2001 there were 43 regions like that, and 65 of them in a year 2002. This relationship between birth and death rates lead to the quick ageing of the nation. Scientists speak about "Russia the decrepit". They were saying that when Czar Nickie was in power, but we digress. This is why scholars are serious when they claim that Russia should expect a huge expansion from China and other overpopulated South-East Asia countries as a salvation. What was Zheng saying about the Middle Kingdom yesterday? Maybe the New Kingdom will move north. In Murmansk region population reproduction levels are below the average for Russia. In 1989 every woman in Murmansk gave birth to approximately 1.8 babies, and in 1997 this statistics fell to 1.1. This simply means that most families in the region have one kid, or the parents give up such a luxury at all. Specialists think that if the situation will remain such for another 60-80 years, then Kolskiy peninsula will be blank. The main reason behind low birth rate in Murmansk region is a socio-economical instability. Every third family is officially behind the poverty line. Everywhere else in the world, poverty means a high birth rate. You can draw a near-linear, inverse line between birth rate and income. Only in Russia does this rule not work. Other important reasons are urbanization level, divorce dynamics, high abortion rate, growing number of drug addicts and spreading of AIDS. Murmansk also is amongst regions with the highest abortion numbers. To compare with the world, while in Murmansk 60 females in 1000 of those who can have children use abortion, only 5 do so in Germany, 7 in Austria and 13 in France. Research found out the majority of women who used abortion did not want to have a baby because they did not have a family. An unlucky marriage ended up in divorce is very typical for modern Russia. The Russians are screwed, basically. Death rate is high, TB, HIV, and alcoholism are killing them off, birth rate is low, poverty is endemic, kleptos are stealing everything they can, and they have either hungry (China) or kooky (Muslim) neighbors. Wonder when we’ll have to fight the WoT there? |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #8 A few thousand children are adopted from Russia every year by Americans. Some families still have 5 or 6, but the last couple end up in an orphanage. It's best if they have their children while young due to the lack of quality med care. I'm glad we got our daughter when we did. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-11-14 9:09:42 PM |
| #7 Global Warming is gonna do wonders for Siberia. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2003-11-14 2:02:09 PM |
| #6 Russia should: (i) Sell the Kuril Islands to Japan in return for Japanese participation in building a bullet train from Moscow to Vladivostok. Sell them the Sakhalin Island as well if they want it. (ii) Take the British Hong Kong constitution and laws and apply them to Vladivostok to promote trade and make the area a huge commercial hub. (iii) Promote immigration into the region with cheap land deals. Especially among non-Chinese to offset the demographic shift in thefar east Dan mentioned. (iv) Sell the Russian pacific fleet or make it into a tourist attraction (watch out for tetnus). Russia is in no position to power project and building up a friendship with Japan and their big fleet is more useful anyway at this point. Eastern Russia could be their California if the Russians treated it right if they followed Yank's 4 point plan! |
| Posted by: Yank 2003-11-14 12:15:07 PM |
| #5 In Siberia there are already more illegial chinese than ethinic Russians. |
| Posted by: Dan 2003-11-14 9:53:21 AM |
| #4 to follow up on yank - a lower population would relieve housing shortages in Russian cities, historically one of the reasons for small families in urban Russia and central Europe. Though that might not impact TB, HIV etc. Of course a govt that figures out the importance of public health might. If Uganda can get HIV under control, why not Russia? |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-11-14 9:31:35 AM |
| #3 Demographic shifts are crap. When the population gets lower attitudes about overpopulation are likely to change and people are likely to have more babies. |
| Posted by: Yank 2003-11-14 8:44:01 AM |
| #2 I read a statistic that the abortion rate in Russia has been ridiculous for years. Something to teh order of three abortions for each live birth. I vaguely recall that repeated abortions can result in eventual sterility. It's like demographic suicide. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-11-14 8:27:09 AM |
| #1 Heck, they can start taking all the folks who want to come here for all I care. We're gonna be full up in about 20 years. |
| Posted by: Jarhead 2003-11-14 7:42:19 AM |