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Arabia
Tribal Backing for Saudi Rulers Ebbs
2003-11-10
DEBKA has a theory, salt to taste. EFL:
Though similar in operational method to the May 12 triple suicide attack in Riyadh, al Qaeda’s suicide assault on the al-Muhaya housing complex in the Saudi capital Saturday night November 9 exposed two new features. Osama bin Laden’s terrorists have taken a threatening step closer to one of their premier targets, the Saudi royal house; and their recruitment base of non-Saudi zealots is expanding.
On November 3, Saudi police killed two armed men and captured six.

On November 6, two terrorists blew themselves up in a shootout to evade capture. On the same day, the Riyadh police shot a third terrorist who had reached the capital from Mecca.

November 9, the suicide bombers struck. The Saudis found to their surprise that, while two of the captured terrorists were Saudis, four were Nigerian. They revealed under questioning that their al Qaeda commanders had exploited the stream of Ramadan pilgrims making for the Muslim shrines to plant several African killer cells in the kingdom, assuming Saudi counter-terror agents would be watching out mainly fro Muslims from Arab states or the Far East.
Each of these cells has two or three Saudi “escorts”, who take them to hideouts where they pick up weapons and explosives and are then led to target. The number of these infiltrator-cells is unknown. They are thought to have scattered among the pilgrimage cities of Mecca and Medina as well as other cities, primarily Riyadh.
Saudis today moved about 5000 troops to Mecca and Medina.
The two terrorists who blew themselves up in Mecca on November 6 turned out to be the remainder of the cell which moved to Riyadh. The investigation is probing to find out if this cell executed or supported the attack on Muhaya. Two of its members preferred to die rather than betray the operation scheduled three days hence, the third got away.
Hard core true believers.
Similarly, three or four days before the May 12 attacks, Saudi and US intelligence discovered and encircled the bombers’ hideout in advance of their operation, but enough escaped to regroup at prepared alternative secret bases and pounce from there. This time too, the Americans and Saudis knew a fresh assault was imminent. On November 8, Washington released information that terrorists had moved from the planning to the operational stage and shut all diplomatic missions in the kingdom.
And the Saudis condemmed the closure saying they had things under control, just before the boomers struck.
...thereby splattering egg all over Prince Nayef's face.
DEBKAfile’s terrorism experts note: The sequence of events lays bare a major obstacle in the capabilities of the royal Saudi authorities and the intelligence resources at their command to fight al Qaeda. On top of the conventional terror prevention methods, like human and electronic surveillance and intelligence gathering, the Saudis are confronted with the need to bargain perpetually for the cooperation of local tribal, clan and clerical leaders in handing over al Qaeda suspects. Saudi security officers in pursuit of terrorists dare not venture into a district before the local chiefs and imams have been won over. The alternative is wholesale war against one or more of the tribes that are the backbone of the kingdom’s population.
Here’s where DEBKA beings to speculate:
Shortly after the May 12 attack, our sources reported that Crown Prince Abdullah and other influential princes rebuked Prince Nayef, accusing him of falling down on the job of prevention. This charge would not be warranted now. Nayef and Saudi intelligence performed to the limit of their ability to prevent the Muhaya attack.
But their abilities are limited by the fact that despite its autocratic structure, Soddy Arabia is still organized into competing clans the same way Yemen is...
Their efforts this time were defeated by the widening rift between the throne in Riyadh and the local chieftains and clerics, especially the teachers at the local madressas. The situation now is that local leaders often let security forces believe they are are operating in friendly territory when those leaders give the game away to their al Qaeda quarry and help them elude capture.
Hey! Just like what happens in NWFP. Maybe the Paks learned it from the Soddies, or maybe it's a feature of primitive tribal-based societies where ignorance and brutality are treasured personal qualities...
This lack of local sympathy for the royal house and its efforts to fight terror is particularly striking in the southern provinces and the Hijaz region of Mecca and Medina on the Red Sea coast, where the Ramad Tribe reigns. For the decades that the Sudeiri branch of the royal house has ruled the government in Riyadh, the southern and eastern tribes have been left in the cold while royal favors were bestowed on the tribes of the central Nejd region.
The ones that know how to read and write?
The alienated tribes, long denied privileges and senior positions in central government, are now settling their scores with Riyadh by granting solidarity to the anti-royal resistance posed by al Qaeda.
Maybe someone is whispering in their ears that they should be in charge instead of the Saud family.
The Saudi Interior minister’s efforts to clamp down on terrorists and foil attacks are seriously cramped by this lack of support in key regions of the kingdom.
They are caught in a vicious circle, they have to crack down because of lack of support, and when they crack down they loose support.
A further danger is posed by al Qaeda’s success in developing another center of recruitment, Kuwait. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources reveal exclusively that since mid-October, hundreds of al Qaeda recruits in Kuwait are entering Iraq directly or through Saudi Arabia. The scale of this traffic is beginning to rival the movement of Arab and other al Qaeda fighters into Iraq from Syria. The Kuwaitis find it easy to enter Iraq posing as merchants with business in Baghdad. At the border, they are picked up by former Iraqi military intelligence officers loyal to Saddam Hussein and transferred to flashpoint zones in Baghdad, Ramadi, Falluja, Samarra and Tikrit where they join the battle against the coalition.
I keep wondering, just how many are making it through? CENTCOM is very closed mouthed about how many al Qaeda "recruits" we are killing in the desert. There’s a lot going on out there we don’t know about.
Posted by:Steve

#10  Hope the folks at growler's link are right. I have my doubts. I'll bet the new grand strategy is the same one used in Korea after the Chineese intervened....

They gamble 7 to 1 again Coalition firepower.
Result is 49 to 1 and run out of money.
Posted by: Shipman   2003-11-10 6:12:44 PM  

#9  Here is one theory about CENTCOM's silence. The rest of that site makes for some good reading.
Posted by: growler   2003-11-10 5:50:19 PM  

#8  My guess is we're talking about a small number of relatively well-trained AQ operatives and a large number of untrained but enthusiastic young men whose main function is to play catch with our .50 caliber rounds.
Posted by: Matt   2003-11-10 2:38:13 PM  

#7  The media would actually make an issue of "human rights" where Al Qaida is concerned? Hah, what are the chances that Al Qaida members would actually give a rat's ass if the situation were reversed?
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2003-11-10 1:57:46 PM  

#6  Steve, I take your $500 and up double it. You don't need no stinking media to figure that one out!
Posted by: B   2003-11-10 12:45:23 PM  

#5  For some reason, after reading A and B, Dawn of the Dead popped into my head. The part where the boys are target shooting.

Didn't Patriot recently post 1 in 25 are getting thru and the Iraqi Police are shooting first and asking questions later????
Posted by: Anonymous-not above   2003-11-10 11:36:02 AM  

#4  sounds like the Madrassahs need shutting down......tap tap
Posted by: Frank G   2003-11-10 11:32:29 AM  

#3  The Saudis found to their surprise that, while two of the captured terrorists were Saudis, four were Nigerian.

Yeah, most of the terrorists were Nigerian. Just like all them bombs from before were set off by western alk runners...
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats   2003-11-10 11:17:53 AM  

#2  I'll take A and B for $500.
Posted by: Steve   2003-11-10 10:40:21 AM  

#1  CENTCOM is saying nothing either because:

a) They're slaughtering them in the desert, where no self-respecting media are present to raise the human-rights hue and cry.

b) The Iraqis are slaughtering them in the desert, where no self-respecting media are present to raise the human-rights hue and cry.

c) They don't know what the hell is going on.

My thoughts: if there really are hundreds of these Jihadis streaming across the borders every day, I would think that we should be seeing more attacks than we have been. The threat could be exaggerated (c), or being eliminated (a,b).

The American military, when in theatre, are flexible and inventive: a virtue of an army of free peoples. Necessity is the mother of invention, so even if we don't know what's happening, I would hope our men out there know what's going on, so they can come up with countermeasures.
Posted by: Ptah   2003-11-10 10:32:14 AM  

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