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Home Front: Politix
California...
2003-10-07
From Drudge...
SOURCES: NETWORKS TO CALL RACE AT 8:01 PM PACIFIC TIME, AS VOTING OFFICIALLY ENDS...

LATEST EXIT POLLS SHOW 59% VOTE 'YES' FOR RECALL, TOP CAMPAIGN AND MEDIA SOURCES TELL DRUDGE REPORT, 51% FOR SCHWARZENEGGER, 30% FOR BUSTAMANTE, 13% MCCLINTOCK... DEVELOPING...

On Fox News, Dems are threatening another recall race in 100 days if Arnold doesn't solve all problems, everywhere...

From Washington Post...
Asked if he thought he would lose the recall section of the ballot, Davis told reporters he was not in the mood to discuss that but added, "There is plenty of time for post-mortems tomorrow."
"After I'm politically dead..."
He went to afternoon mass and told reporters afterward he offered a prayer to St. Jude, who is the patron saint of lost causes.
Kinda late for that...
The California Secretary of State's office said that when voting ends at 8 p.m. PDT (11 p.m. EDT) almost 10 million people will have voted -- 2.3 million more than the last gubernatorial election and the highest number of voters for any governor's race in state history -- about 65 percent of registered voters.

Fox News sez exit polls say The Gray Davis is toast. We're not surprised:
Event: Gray Davis gets recalled
Group: Sane California voters
Narrative: It's like pulling wings off flies, but Gray Davis is getting recalled. Maybe.
Window: 0 Months (10/20/03)
Probability 80% entered by Steve White on 8/21/03
Probability 85% entered by Fred on 8/21/03
Probability 90% entered by Scooter McGruder on 8/21/03
Probability 100% entered by tu3031 on 8/21/03
Probability 100% entered by tu3031 on 8/21/03
Probability 85% entered by Anonymous on 8/22/03
Probability 85% entered by ccas on 8/22/03
Probability 100% entered by Chuck Simmins on 8/22/03
Probability 90% entered by Frank G on 8/24/03
Probability 70% entered by mft on 9/3/03
Probability 50% entered by Super Hose on 9/17/03
Probability 95% entered by Mike on 9/30/03
Probability 95% entered by R. McLeod on 10/1/03
Overall opinion is Probable (87%)
Current opinion is Probable (83%)
There's still a half hour to go before the polls close, but some of us were on the money, too...
Event: Arnold takes it
Group: California
Narrative: The Gray Davis, out. Arnold, in. Lesser probability: Arianna caught nekkid in a parked Mercedes with Ralph Nader.
Window: 1 Months (10/26/03)
Probability 90% entered by Fred on 8/27/03
Probability 75% entered by tu3031 on 8/27/03
Probability 80% entered by Chuck Simmins on 8/28/03
Probability 50% entered by True German Ally on 8/28/03
Probability 75% entered by Alaska Paul on 8/28/03
Probability 33% entered by Steve White on 9/3/03
Probability 40% entered by mft on 9/3/03
Probability 40% entered by Anonymous on 9/5/03
Probability 30% entered by Super Hose on 9/17/03
Probability 85% entered by Mike on 9/30/03
Probability 85% entered by R. McLeod on 10/1/03
Overall opinion is Possible (62%)
Current opinion is Possible (52%)
For once we were wrong. Not that they didn't try...
Event: California GOP shoots itself in the foot.
Group: GOP
Narrative: State GOP backstabs leading candidate (Arnold)
Window: 0 Months (10/19/03)
Probability 75% entered by Anonymous on 8/20/03
Probability 25% entered by Anonymous on 8/20/03
Probability 75% entered by Fred on 8/20/03
Probability 75% entered by Becky on 8/21/03
Probability 90% entered by Steve White on 8/21/03
Probability 75% entered by Chuck Simmins on 8/22/03
Probability 98% entered by mojo on 8/23/03
Probability 98% entered by mojo on 8/23/03
Probability 40% entered by Mike on 8/23/03
Probability 50% entered by Paul Moloney on 8/23/03
Probability 25% entered by Frank G on 8/24/03
Probability 80% entered by Super Hose on 9/17/03
Overall opinion is Probable (67%)
Current opinion is Probable (65%)
McAuliff's on the teevee. He just said it was a short campaign and a lot of people weren't paying attention, but he thinks The Gray Davis is going to pull it off. And he wants criminal investigations of Arnie. He doesn't think this is good news for the Publicans, doesn't think it's good news for George Bush...

11.05 pm... Bustamante HQ is glum... McClintock will make a speech in a half hour or so... Arnie's been working on his acceptance speech... Gary Coleman hasn't conceded yet...

Looks like Arnold over Bustamante 53-33 percent...
Posted by:Fred Pruitt

#6  As for the Quislingcrats trying to do ANOTHER recall in 100 days or so...fuhgeddaboudit. The petition-signature threshold needed to get a recall on the ballot is based on the last election's total voter turnout. Since MORE people voted this time than in the '02 election that returned Grayout for his second term, the Q-crats would have to get considerably more than the 800,000-plus that the recall organizers needed.
Posted by: Jeff   2003-10-8 1:42:09 AM  

#5  actually I heard Wesley's campaign manager quit today
Posted by: Frank G   2003-10-7 10:55:00 PM  

#4  The polling data Fox is showing says that 80% of voters made up their minds weeks ago. Looks like the last minute smear campaign didn't actually hurt Davis like I thought it did. Glad to be wrong on every account.

Haven't been as this surpised by a political election since the Paul Wellstone Wake & PepRally was held.

As for this not being good news for Bush, has anyone heard much about the DNC challengers, WMD or Ambassador Wilson's wife roday. Arnie will suck all the oxygen for a week.
Posted by: Super Hose   2003-10-7 10:50:20 PM  

#3  how in the hell did I miss that Future Item?? D'oh!
Posted by: Frank G   2003-10-7 10:37:24 PM  

#2  7:33 PM Mrs Sarge and I just returned from voting. Davis is gone! Arney is in!
Posted by: Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter)   2003-10-7 10:32:46 PM  

#1  "t. Jude, who is the patron saint of lost causes"

and a voice was heard from the heavens: "yeah, right..."
Posted by: Frank G   2003-10-7 10:09:01 PM  

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