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Arabia
Saudis shopping for a nuke?
2003-09-18
Hat tip: Damian Penny, the pride of Corner Brook, Nfld. EFL
Recent developments in West Asia have led Saudi Arabia to embark on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons, says The Guardian.
"Recent" is apparently at least a year old...
According to the British newspaper, ’this new threat of proliferation in one of the most dangerous regions of the world comes on top of a crisis over Iran’s alleged nuclear programme. A strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Riyadh sets out three options: To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent; to maintain or enter into an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would offer protection, or to try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East.’ Until now, the newspaper said, ’the assumption in Washington was that Saudi Arabia was content to remain under the US nuclear umbrella. But the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has steadily worsened since the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington:
I wonder why.
15 of the 19 attackers were Saudi.’
Oh, that’s why.
While it is not known whether any decision has been taken on any of the three options, ’the fact that it is prepared to contemplate the nuclear option is a worrying development,’ The Guardian said. Quoting UN and nuclear weapons analysts, the newspaper said the Saudi review reflected profound insecurities ’generated by the volatility in the Middle East, Riyadh’s estrangement with Washington and the weakening of its reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.’Saudi Arabia is concerned over an Iranain nuclear weapons programme and the complete lack of international pressure on Israel, said to have 200 nuclear devices. It is also worried about a string of apparent leaks in American papers from the US administration critical of Saudi Arabia, said the daily.
To quote Ronald Reagan, "Facts are stubborn things."
It quoted David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington thinktank, as saying he doubted whether the Saudis would try to build a nuclear bomb, seeing as they don’t have the smarts to do it, preferring instead to try to buy a nuclear warhead. They would be the first of the world’s eight or nine nuclear powers to have bought rather than built the bomb. Four years ago, Saudi Arabia sent a defence team to Pakistan to tour its secret nuclear facilities and to be briefed by Abdul Qader Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. A UN official said: "There’s obviously a lot of restlessness in the Middle East. Regional insecurity tends to produce a quest for a nuclear umbrella. The Saudis have the money and could provide it to Pakistan."
Unstated minor premise: the Pakistanis have the bomb and could provide it to the Saudis.
However, Albright said he doubted whether anyone would sell.
I don't...
Wish I had his confidence in the basic goodness of mankind. If this is even possibly true, it’s yet another argument for regime change in Riyadh.

I think it's entirely likely it's true. A year ago, I didn't think it would happen — for practical reasons:
The Saudi military isn't very large — there aren't enough Saudis to sustain a large force; the population is about 22.7 million, and of these 5.3 million are "expats." That makes it rather smaller than Iraq, which has almost the same population but without the foreign labor. Total military manpower is about 162,000, which includes 105,500 regulars. Despite being one of the world's largest weapons importers, they have not historically been military adventurers. It's easier, more efficient, and in the long run cheaper to work behind the scenes and through proxies. That's what leads me to believe they'll prefer to contract out any nuclear adventurism, and have someone else take the hit.
Even though the Soddies have begun making what appear to be some serious efforts to get their domestic terrorism problem under control, the U.S. has ceased buying their polite fictions. There have been too many of them, and they've been too easily disproven. Another incident or two and they could find themselves openly on the poop list.

But I still think that for practical reasons they won't openly maintain their own nuclear force. Instead, I think they'll lease Pakistan, which has a dog-like devotion to the Soddy kingdom and to all things Arab. Official Pakistan wants to be the Arabs' good friend, selling them missiles. They're also training the Soddy army, despite the fact that they've never won a war. Qazi wants an Axis of Islam, starring Soddy money and Pak muscle, co-starring Iran, Malaysia and Indonesia, and they've made a step in that direction with the Supreme Council of Global Jihad, though that's admittedly an unofficial body. The Pak-Soddy alliance is one that will continue to strengthen, especially behind the scenes — the old secret protocols trick. And Pakland will be Soddy Arabia's nuclear guarantor.
Posted by:Mike

#12  well, i still like ethanol for cars since it can already be used (is used in racing vehicles, just need to modify the engine to not have parts made of materials that corrode in ethanol) and it is a liquid so it can be used in the existing tanker-transport-petrol bowser system.

Get the cars off the Soddie's black pus first, that will put the fear of allah into them!

I know people don't like that idea because they want cars that go faster for less, and ethanol fuel is more expensive, but i think it is worth it for the satisfaction of weaning us off the saudi teat.
Posted by: Anon1   2003-9-19 3:14:42 AM  

#11  .. in which case it's probably already too late for them to do anything about it.
Posted by: Dishman   2003-9-18 9:54:18 PM  

#10  Saudi Arabia is concerned over an Iranain nuclear weapons programme and the complete lack of international pressure on Israel, said to have 200 nuclear devices.

Israel is NOT a Saddam Hussein-esque dictatorship, and the Saudis have no real reason to fear nuclear attack, unless of course Saudi operatives are incubating some other more sinister plans for the future...
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2003-9-18 4:34:18 PM  

#9  Agree 100%, Paul. We would have a hotel on Titan by now if fear-mongering luddites hadn't been calling the shots for 30 years.
Posted by: atomic conspiracy   2003-9-18 3:14:12 PM  

#8  The one thing that I have been griping about to congressmen and women since the 70's is the development of a national energy policy with milestones for achievable goals to get off the ME oil tit. Both parties have pissed away 30 years of good development time. We have the smarts. We have the technology or we could develop it. We as a nation have not had the national will to do this.

The people have to lead. The politicians have been s--king status quo d--k at our expense for too long.

Arrrrggggghhhhhh!
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2003-9-18 2:32:38 PM  

#7  They will have the bomb, I figure it will come from France. The pressure is on in the happy kingdom. Yank, I agree, I love a powerful V8 but I did once own a Mercedes 220D (Beirut taxi/car bomb) and it was a very reliable car with poor passing power but it could cruise effortlessly. New deisels are now able to excellerate. "Let's drill"
Posted by: Lucky   2003-9-18 12:41:36 PM  

#6  Time to stop pussy-footing with the Saudi's. The US should have a two pronged attack (1) promote the independence of the Shia dominated oil regions just south of Kuwait. (2) promote vegetable oil usage for diesel engines in the US with tax incentives, etc to promote the distribution of vegetable oil at existing gas station infrastructure and to increase the number of people buying diesels, and to get the car manufacturs to use diesel engines over petrol engines. Combine that with tax incentives and laws the promote two-way power meters and inexpensive roof solar tiles.

The combination of the two could have the US free of foreign oil supplies within 5 years and the technology is there, its just a matter of having the willpower to screw the Saudi's and our own oil industry friends.

The vegetable oil has the advantage of smelling like French Fries instead of nasty diesel fumes and its a source the US can depend upon as long as Fast Food is super popular here.
Posted by: Yank   2003-9-18 12:18:08 PM  

#5  I like your idea, Tom...a used nuke!
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2003-9-18 11:51:14 AM  

#4  If they want a nuke, we should give them a nuke. Let's just drop a small one in their desert where the Iranians can see the mushroom cloud too. Might give them all pause to reflect on how many we have.
Posted by: Tom   2003-9-18 11:11:13 AM  

#3  Heh... send Madeline over there without her Burka. After they gouge their eyes out, we can take over...
Posted by: snellenr   2003-9-18 10:00:45 AM  

#2  Send Madeline over there in a Burka. That will scare the Saudis into rethinking the whole nuke idea. Heh heh.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2003-9-18 9:49:43 AM  

#1  Is Jimmy Carter busy? Can we get him over there on the double to make things better?
Posted by: Super Hose   2003-9-18 8:43:14 AM  

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