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| Iraq |
| What Iraqis Really Think |
| 2003-09-10 |
| by Karl Zinsmeister, Wall Street Journal EFL America, some say, is hobbled in its policies toward Iraq by not knowing much about what Iraqis really think. Are they on the side of radical Islamists? What kind of government would they like? What is their attitude toward the U.S.? Do the Shiites hate us? Could Iraq become another Iran under the ayatollahs? Are the people in the Sunni triangle the real problem? Up to now we?ve only been able to guess. We?ve relied on anecdotal temperature-takings of the Iraqi public, and have been at the mercy of images presented to us by the press. We all know that journalists have a bad-news bias: 10,000 schools being rehabbed isn?t news; one school blowing up is a weeklong feeding frenzy. . . . Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq?s second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle). The results show that the Iraqi public is more sensible, stable and moderate than commonly portrayed, and that Iraq is not so fanatical, or resentful of the U.S., after all. --Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better. --The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by 3 to 1, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won?t work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn?t sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2 to 1; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men. --Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S., and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran?s Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance. --Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66% to 27%. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question. Hate to say "ayatollah you so," but . . . . . . --You can also cross out "Osama II": 57% of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden, with 41% of those saying it is a very unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al Qaeda supremo are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al Qaeda members who killed worshipers with a truck bomb in Najaf. Wonder what the results would be in the rest of the "Arab Street" if you could survey opinion without the secret police looking over your shoulder? --And you can write off the possibility of a Baath revival. We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74% to 18% that Saddam?s henchmen should be This new evidence on Iraqi opinion suggests the country is manageable. If the small number of militants conducting sabotage and murder inside the country can gradually be eliminated by American troops (this is already happening), then the mass of citizens living along the Tigris-Euphrates Valley are likely to make reasonably sensible use of their new freedom. "We will not forget it was the U.S. soldiers who liberated us from Saddam," said Abid Ali, an auto repair shop owner in Sadr City last month--and our research shows that he?s not unrepresentative. This will, of course, be the lead story on tonight?s network news and on NPR?s "All Things Considered." (NOT!) |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #9 Zogby makes it more believable to me. He probably used local resources for the polling. I believe he is either from the ME or his family is. I beleive he speaks Arabic but I may be wrong. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-9-10 9:17:31 PM |
| #8 I'm surprised that Murat missed the chance to post this first...but perhaps that's a time difference thing. Notable, besides the results, is the polling organization: Zogby. This is an organization that has not been very friendly to the Bush Administration in its polling in the US, particularly its polling of Muslims here at home. That makes the findings even more significant, and important. But watch how little play this gets anywhere... |
| Posted by: R. McLeod 2003-9-10 4:21:09 PM |
| #7 Thanks for adding further proof to my comments above, Stevey. Anecdotal evidence = squat. Statistical evidence = fact. Or were you trying to suggest that since 100.00% of Iraqis don't love us, we've failed and should go home? |
| Posted by: Dar 2003-9-10 3:51:50 PM |
| #6 oh they love us. Guess that explains why that crowd tried to soak their hand in a massive pool of blood that was left after a bomb was thrown onto an American humvee from atop a bridge. The crowd which i saw on reuters tv yelled death to America and a group of young men said they feel happy to see American blood. Oh they really love us |
| Posted by: steveerossa 2003-9-10 3:44:47 PM |
| #5 This is nice to hear, but I am skeptical of Iraqi opinion polls even when favorable. These people have been through an 30 year period of fear and paranoia. Sadaam posted some pretty impressive polling numbers during the last Iraqi referendum. Are the just feeding the pollster a line? |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-9-10 2:58:55 PM |
| #4 Thanks for posting this, Mike. It's great finally to see some objective, statistical evidence on what the Iraqis think. The media keeps trying to sell us with individual anecdotes that it's a quagmire, while a handful of decent reporters and servicemembers publish their own, more positive anecdotes, but it's the cold, hard numbers that really matter ultimately. |
| Posted by: Dar 2003-9-10 2:15:39 PM |
| #3 Raj... LMAO! |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2003-9-10 1:30:23 PM |
| #2 Women are especially down on him Might want an editor next time... |
| Posted by: Raj 2003-9-10 11:50:25 AM |
| #1 Hope this is accurate. The last thing we need is to be slouching towards a general insurrection. |
| Posted by: Hiryu 2003-9-10 11:15:25 AM |