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| Korea |
| N. Korea - Entropy in Motion |
| 2003-08-24 |
| ...the Chinese have a more urgent reason than anyone else at the table to want major reforms in Kim Jong Ilâs regime without delay. Hunger and oppression inside North Korea have spawned an epidemic of violent crime on the Chinese side of the border. âThe North Koreans arenât afraid of anything,â says one area resident. âNow weâre the ones living in fear.â ALTHOUGH BEIJING has mostly kept the crime wave out of the papers, itâs no secret to anyone who lives in the area. More than 100,000 illegal North Korean refugees live in China in hiding, under constant threat of being sent home to face starvation, imprisonment and possible execution if they are caught. Robbing or stealing is sometimes the only way to survive. North Korean soldiers have added to the chaos, in-filtrating across the line and attempting armed robberiesâeven, NEWSWEEK has learned, a bank holdup in the border town of Tumen Yup, right there on page 58 of my Juche Handbook: Patriotic Self-Reliance and Correction of Deviant Corrupt Robber Barron Activities thru Stickups. As if that werenât enough, Pyongyang has sent swarms of operatives into China to track down defectors and refugees. The hunts can end in murder. In one border town, armed North Korean agents apparently killed a pair of South Korean missionaries along with four North Korean refugees whom they were hiding. In another incident, a North Korean refugee killed two local police and a Chinese border patrolman in the town of Longjing, west of Tumen. Last week, thousands of Chinese troops arrived in the regionâs main city, Yanji. Local sources say that they will be stationed at a string of newly constructed military garrisons in Tumen and other frontier towns, replacing smaller units of border police. So on one hand we have NK troops crossing the border in order to feed themselves. This indicates a serious breakdown. On the other hand, we have regime agents recieving and executing orders, which says to me the final collapse is not upon us. Yet. "Newly constructed military garrisons," eh? Whatâs the difference between a "garrison" and a "jumping off point"? |
| Posted by:Pete Stanley |
| #13 In the meantime a steady stockpiling of condensed chicken noodle soup, a stratigic stockpile if you will, is a no brainer. It'll be like cake. |
| Posted by: Lucky 2003-8-24 9:38:29 PM |
| #12 I am for reunification if at all possible. I am also for the US being a major part of the humanitarian effort. I don't see a way through the maze that doesn't involve an astronomical number of innocent Koreans getting killed. The current export of weapons, drugs and conterfit currency is unacceptable. Massive starvation of the populous is also unacceptable. I don't think Japan really has much to fear from their missiles. Their diesel submarine force can be sunk at our convenience. On the Korean people both North and South are in harms way. We need to help them through this not just pay them off until after the elections |
| Posted by: Steve D 2003-8-24 9:33:14 PM |
| #11 Actually, Steve, there is a pretty good chance that the US will be part of a humanitarian effort in the next few years (actually all the best case scenarios work out this way). The US would almost certainly insist that the SKoreans lead the effort. The US would provide food (we have enormous surplus capacity there) and medical supplies (we can produce this also quicker than anybody else). The reconstruction of water, energy and housing would best be SKor or China if we were interested in getting the job done quickly. |
| Posted by: mhw 2003-8-24 8:28:17 PM |
| #10 Probably don't have to worry about China annexing NKorea. Are you predicting that the UN, China, Russia, and EU will get together and con us into another humanitarian intervention by ourselves. Maybe we can get the Pueblo back at least. |
| Posted by: Steve D 2003-8-24 6:56:11 PM |
| #9 Probably don't have to worry about China annexing NKorea. The Chinese don't want the burden of rebuilding. Neither does SKorea. Hence the years of laying on the sidelines hoping the US would make it all better. One of the (maybe the principle) reasons the Chinese have got serious is that the Russians have got serious and moved some of their military assets to near the NK border. |
| Posted by: mhw 2003-8-24 6:01:18 PM |
| #8 NK is going to collapse in the next couple of years at the rate it's going. With people starving, economic sanctions straggling them, and international support almost completly dried up, it's a ticking 'star waiting to implode'. What we really need to worry about is getting in there after the collapse of the current regime. Restoring order quickly and preventing China from annexing NK will be big issues. |
| Posted by: Charles 2003-8-24 5:14:25 PM |
| #7 Sorry, meant to put this under "Korea". Based on the articles that you linked, a workable strategy would be to make some concessions during negotiations to keep the status quo until Iraq falls in line and then take care of NK. Nuetralizing NK would involve contacting individual commanders to convince them that their planned artillery barrage would be a most unhealthy act. Step two would be to sever the rail lines. Step three would be to roll North by 50 to 100 miles to estasblish a buffer and then negotiate again. |
| Posted by: Steve D 2003-8-24 5:12:23 PM |
| #6 Sorry, meant to put this under "Korea". A - I don't believe it's wishful thinking, and here's why: North Korea depended on aid from China and the Soviet Union for its entire existance, mostly from the Soviet Union. That stopped ten years ago, obviously. Infrastructure has been getting steadily worse since then. And North Korea was already fairly crumbly, due to the enormous influence of the army - much more so than in other Communist dictatorships. The Party doesn't control the army, and the Corps commanders do whatever they want. This is the article I'm basing my thinking on. A few days ago, the author left a couple comments on NK here, although the post started with Iraq. (Scroll down.) Another good article. |
| Posted by: Pete Stanley 2003-8-24 3:01:27 PM |
| #5 I don't buy the Chinese concern with refugees or starvation in the border area. 100,000 dying would be small change with respect to the Cultural Revolution. While massive starvation in Mexico would be a grave concern to us, it would be a mistake to project that same concern for human life onto the Chinese government. The Chicoms will continue to surprise us with their brutality. I expect China's current concern is to prevent the US from arming Japan and Taiwan. |
| Posted by: Steve D 2003-8-24 1:38:50 PM |
| #4 I don't understand this hypothesis of the "final collapse" of a totalitarian regime. Has it ever occurred without foreign influence (aka invasion)? The Soviet Union had millions starving in the 1930s, yet Stalin had enough authority to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s. As long as Kim keeps control of his army commanders, isn't all this talk of "final collapse" just wishful thinking? |
| Posted by: A 2003-8-24 12:21:24 PM |
| #3 NK poses huge refugee issues to china, and war would only worsen it. The crime sprees are just whipped cream on a sh*t pie for China - they're losing their grip on NK, and I think starting to really wonder if the pros outweigh the cons in supporting them any more |
| Posted by: Frank G 2003-8-24 11:52:49 AM |
| #2 Whatâs the difference between a "garrison" and a "jumping off point"? Think 'Fort Apache'. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2003-8-24 11:44:35 AM |
| #1 I don't think "jumping off point" is right. More likely "forward supply depot". The Chinese know they've got a problem with logistics. This could be a large step towards fixing it. |
| Posted by: Dishman 2003-8-24 5:57:20 AM |