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-Short Attention Span Theater-
How Power Systems Work - And was it Sabotage?
2003-08-15
Hat Tip: Instapundit
EFL
Written by someone who actually knows WTF they’re talking about. Well written and worth the read, assuming you actually want to know, too. ;-0

Yep, the lights went out for 50 million people yesterday, and we still don’t really know why it happened. Canada blames a fault in our system; we blame a fault in Canada’s system, or a bad transmission line in the Midwest, but we’re all sure it wasn’t a terrorist.

Why? Just because nothing blew up?

Let’s try a little experiment, change the word terror to sabotage. Sound any more likely now?

The leading theory on the root cause of the failure, at least, the leading theory as I rode in to work this morning, was the simultaneous failure of multiple transmission lines in the northern Mid-West US.

Hmmm. When I learned to trouble shoot, they taught us that multiple faults are very rare, and to look for a single fault first. If you seemed to be chasing a multiple fault, step back and look again. You probably missed something.

Here’s a scenario to consider: Some idiot with an axe to grind and no sense of self preservation decides to die gloriously for Allah or whoever. He shorts two high tension transmission lines together, vaporizing himself while causing a cascading overload which shuts down power to 50 million people.

That’s "simultaneous failure of multiple transmission lines."
Check out the rest...
Posted by:.com

#9  I wouldn't know (maybe true for the inner city) but looking at Frankfurt, they do have quite a few high rise buildings there (they call it Mainhattan). I can't imagine an elevator without an emergency power aggregate. I'd say that's even true for business buildings not higher than 6 levels. For high rise building elevators NOT to have one sounds weird to me, sorry. And of course any German subway would have an emergency power supply. You'd probably just notice flickering lamps. When the subway stops it's because the cables have been damaged due to an accident but not because of primary power failure.
I really don't claim Germany to be perfect in anything but security is higher on our list. Hence we might be less vulnerable to something like "terrorist sabotage". Although you'll always find weak spots if you dig deep enough. There is no such thing as perfect safety.
Posted by: True German Ally   2003-8-15 8:37:37 PM  

#8  Since the theory is simultaneous multiple failures, at least two bodies are needed with good watches not one body.
Posted by: hammerhead   2003-8-15 8:32:49 PM  

#7  ...and doesn't Munich have a by-law that you can't build anything taller than 6 levels?
Posted by: Raphael   2003-8-15 8:13:21 PM  

#6  So why did NY subway stop running, why did elevators stop?

Sheer volume I guess. Not worth having a generator for every elevator or subway car. How many elevators do you have in Germany? 4? Seriously... there are more high-rise buildings in Manhattan than in all of Germany.
Posted by: Raphael   2003-8-15 8:08:15 PM  

#5  ..vaporizing himself...

Just what does a body look like after a 345 Kilo Volt electrocution. Vapor or crispy critter? I used to have 3 power plants in my backyard (PPIMBY). I recall a deer getting fried by coming in contact with a high tension line support that had a ground fault. It did not vaporize. Then again it did not make contact across the lines, but line to ground so the voltage was less. People don't vaporize after lightning strikes them.

A better way to short the transmission line is to throw metal across the lines. The metal would definitely vaporize, but still may leave pieces outside the arc. I wonder if the lines themselves would have evidence of the short such as burn marks. An inspection would have to be done by helo. That is how the wire is laid. Would the wire carry load after such a short or would it too separate at the short. The US military has the answers since they have a weapon in stock for shorting lines.

Unfortunately, TGA, we are not big on backup anything. We like to work without a saftey net. We are too fond of back-of-the-hand on-the-fly engineering too.
Posted by: hammerhead   2003-8-15 8:08:14 PM  

#4  So why did NY subway stop running, why did elevators stop? (I believe that hospitals have generators.)

As for terrorist action, it probably was the "Brotherhood of Shiite hits the Fan"?
Posted by: True German Ally   2003-8-15 8:01:26 PM  

#3  You mean, they DON'T???

Relax TGA, they DO. It's safe for you to visit us no problem. Crap, even my condo has a backup generator, so you see, it's not totally the middle ages here.
Nice article. It didn't mention however, that the older nuke plants take up to 36 hours to come back online if not longer. And up here in Ontario, 40% of our AC comes from nukes. Hence the delay in getting everything back up to speed.
Posted by: Raphael   2003-8-15 7:56:46 PM  

#2  "Hospitals, emergency services, communications services should all be required to have back up generators with enough fuel to last for 3 days."

That really caught my eye. You mean, they DON'T???

I don't want to bore you again with Germany but here that's just standard everywhere (hospitals are more likely to have power for 7 days). Even if the German grid failed totally we'd still have trains and subways running, elevators running etc. With several serious blackouts in NY already I'm rather puzzled at your emergency plans for outages.
Posted by: True German Ally   2003-8-15 7:47:15 PM  

#1  while one should never look for malice where idiocy explains a situation, the current situation demands suspicion.

Two reasons why authorities were so quick (too quick) to rule out terrorism:

1) avoid panic
2) deny terrorists the kudos/fame/glory of their 'achievement' thus denying the Islamonut world a chance to be further inspired into acts against the kaffirs.

seriously with multiple, simultaneous failure - can there be any doubt?
Posted by: Anon1   2003-8-15 7:41:10 PM  

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