Ledeen has a good insight into the hidden hand of Iran among the Shiites in Iraq.
The military battle to destroy the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein has virtually ended. Now the political battle for the freedom of the Iraqi people ensues, and it may be over very quickly, to our surprise and shame.
| I tend to think not, but go ahead... |
We have a very narrow window in Iraq to win the support of the Shiite community, which constitutes a majority of the Iraqi people. If we do not manage that in the next month or two, the radical Iranian regime will almost certainly succeed in its ambitious and, thus far, brilliantly managed campaign to mobilize the Iraqi Shiites to discredit the Coalition victory, demand an immediate American withdrawal, and insist on âinternationalâ â that is, U.N. and European â supervision of the country. That would leave Iran with a free hand in Iraq, strengthen the regime in Tehran to our detriment, and give a second wind to the terror network. Our victory, as the old saying goes, would turn to ashes in our mouths.
Aye, lads. 'Twar back in olden times, back in December, when I pointed out the obvious: A greater worry to me than Jund al-Islam is SCIRI itself. I'm sure that the Medes and the Persians have every intention of trying to snatch the Iraqi bone from between the American teeth at the first opportunity when Sammy's gone. Wonder if they'll be the ones to provide the causus belli to slap Iran? .So you read it here first, probably. But that doesn't mean I thought of it first â if Bush, Rice, et al, aren't five steps ahead of me then they're being overpaid. Dealing with the Iraqi ayatollahs is going to be tricky, I suppose, but I doubt greatly we're going to give them the right to establish a theocracy. |
Some of our leaders seemed surprised to discover that both Iran and Syria were sending thousands of terrorists into Iraq to attack Coalition forces, but there was no reason for surprise. Both Bashar Assad in Damascus and Ali Khamenei and his fanatical allies in Tehran had publicly announced that America would sink into a Vietnam-like quagmire in Iraq, and the long delay between the end of the Afghan campaign and the onset of the liberation of Iraq enabled the Iranians and Syrians to plan their moves to best assure this outcome. The Syrians have been caught red-handed, opening their border with Iraq to terrorists moving East and weapons and Baathist hierarchs fleeing West. As usual, the Iranians have taken pains to cover their tracks. Even so, there is plenty of reliable information about their operations. In the middle of the war, for example, many Iraqi leaders â reportedly more than a hundred in all â made it by bus across the border to Iran, were escorted onto a commercial aircraft, and were flown to a safe haven in the Sudan.
| I didn't hear about that one, but I suppose it could be true. But SAIRI remains the ayatollahs' catspaw. That's basically the Hakim family and their al-Badr brigade. All al-Badr did in the war was hold a parade and there's nothing to indicate it would be any challenge to dismantle. I suppose there's some reason for the U.S. to allow armed gunnies to run around for awhile, but we should be disarming the sonsabitches soon... |
But the true audacity of Tehran lies in their political moves. The Iranians have infiltrated more than a hundred highly trained Arab mullahs from Qom and other Iranian religious centers into Iraq, especially to Najaf and Karbala, the holy cities of the Shiite faith. They are poisoning the minds of the (largely uneducated) Iraqi mobs with a simple slogan, repeated five times a day in the mosques: âAmerica did it for the Jews and for the oil.â They are also distributing cash to the Iraqis.
| It'll be the province of the interim Iraqi government to crack down on political vitriol passing as sermons in the mosques. We could maybe enact regulations, but the enforcement would be a nightmare and the propaganda value to the Medes and Persians â infidels dictating to honest Muslims what they can say â would be awful. But Talabani or Chalabi or whomever could get away with it. |
Just as they did against the shah, the Iranian Shiite leaders intend to build a mass following, leading to an insurrection against us. Look carefully at the banners carried by the Shiite demonstrators. They are very clean and well produced, with slogans in both Arabic (for the Iraqis) and English (for Western media). That is the Iranian regime at work, one of the most brilliant and patient intelligence organizations in the region. The slogans chanted by the mobs in Baghdad are Iranian slogans, calls for an Islamic state. It may seem fanciful to suggest that our liberation of Iraq could be transformed into a pro-Iranian regime applying sharia law, but after all just last year our negotiators permitted the creation of an Islamic Republic in Afghanistan.
| I'm hoping that's a lesson we learned well. Recent statements on the subject by Powell and Rumsfeld suggest we're not going to let it happen... |
The Iranians will combine this political strategy with terrorist acts and assassinations, as in the case of the very charismatic Ayatollah Khoei in Najaf. He was a real threat to them, because of his personality and his solid pro-Western views. So they killed him, and they are planning to kill others of his ilk, along with as many Coalition soldiers as they can murder. Thousands of Iranian-backed terrorists have been sent to Iraq, from Hezbollah killers to the remnants of al Qaeda, from Islamic Jihadists to top Iranian Revolutionary Guards fighters.
| It wasn't hard to anticipate them doing that. The Arabs were hollering about it and beating their chests loudly enough. Syria's being slapped around diplomatically right now, and Iran should soon start receiving messages pointing out their "unfriendly acts." The Syrians made the mistake of actually sending people to make war on us, while the Medes and the Persians have been professing neutrality. If they abandon that neutrality, there will be consequences. |
We have not taken suitable precautions against the infiltration of suicide bombers and terrorists. The Associated Press reported on April 19th that â there wasnât a single U.S. military checkpoint Friday along the length of the 50-mile road from the eastern city of Kut to the (Iranian) border â Iranian border guards roamed freely to the Iraqi side, acting as if they were in charge of the area and quickly asking reporters to leave.
| That should be a temporary condition. There are only so many troops available. And ultimately it'll be the Iraqis who guard their own border and send the Iranians packing. |
We cannot defeat this strategy militarily without a level of violence against civilians that would redound against us; we have to use their methods to defeat them. Our best strategy consists of two programs, one defensive and one offensive. The first is to support pro-Western, pro-democracy mullahs in Najaf and Karbala. They have sent a message to me (roughly two dozen of them), offering to help us in exchange for physical protection and money to give as charity to followers. Most Iraqi people do not like the Iranians, but only their own religious leaders can credibly expose the Iranian operation. They will not believe our radio or television broadcasts, or speeches from American generals, but they will listen to their own religious leaders. Similarly, it is next to impossible for us to identify the Iranian-backed terrorists, but the Iraqi Shiites can do it, once they are convinced that their real salvation lies with us. That is why the battle for the minds of the Iraqi Shiites is so crucial.
| That's a statement of the obvious. We're going to have to forge alliances with the Shiite clergy. Okay. |
The second program is to support the anti-regime forces inside Iran. That insane regime is now very frightened, both of us and of their own people. The ayatollahs know that the Iranian people long to be free, and the regime has intensified its repression during the run-up to the war. There are several pro-democracy groups in Iran (student and teacher organizations, trade unions, workers? group, especially in the oil and textile sectors) that can organize an insurrection in Tehran and other major cities. They need money (a fraction of what was squandered in the CIAâs failed program to induce an insurrection in Basra), satellite phones, laptop computers, and the like. At the same time, we should support the pro-American Persian language radio and TV stations in Los Angeles, that are the principal source of information for most educated Iranians.
| Agreed. I think that when the ayatollahs are eventually thrown out it will be by the Iranians. But along with the phones and computers, I'd suggest we also start shipping in arms and ammunition and explosives and recruiting psychopaths. It will not be a bloodless revolution, and probably not even relatively bloodless. |
A thoughtful Turkish general once remarked that the trouble with allying with the United States is that âyou never know when the Americans are going to turn around and stab themselves in the back.â We have won a dazzling military battle, but victory in the war against terrorism is suddenly in peril. We can certainly win, but we are up against a desperate enemy with great skill and cunning, and the cynical ruthlessness that comes from an ancient civilization that has survived countless invaders and occupiers over many millennia. Weâd better take them seriously. |