Increased pressure by Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal, the six-party religious alliance, to force General Pervez Musharraf to step down as army chief has got the government to launch efforts to split the MMA by exploiting the cracks between the Jamaâat-e Islami and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, the two largest component parties in the alliance. After failing to leash the JI and its vaulting Amir, Qazi Hussein Ahmed, the government has now turned its attention towards JUI of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which, according to well-placed sources, has indicated to be more amenable on the issue of General Musharrafâs position as army chief.
Fazlur Rehman is known as Mullah Diesel in Pakistan, because of the alleged money he made on smuggling petrol through Pakistan back in 1993 when he was in the government of Benazir Bhutto. As you can tell from his obese appearance, he is a man with a taste for the finer things in life, and is probably much easier to buy off than the more fanatical Qazi.
| Qazi's nearly as porky, his purchase price is just higher. He wants to be khalif... |
âThe JUI has agreed to give [General] Musharraf a timeframe, about two years, to step down as army chief; the JI has put his immediate resignation as a precondition for accepting the LFO,â says a top official. The LFO is the package of amendments General Musharraf made through various ordinances and executive orders in the run-up to the October elections and the transition to democracy through the polls. The alliance, which came into being on January 2, 2002, has not been without friction. But the parties â primarily JI and JUI â have stuck together because of the Allianceâs political impact and the need to keep the vote-bank intact. âIt would have been easy to split them if they hadnât done so well in the elections. That they have, makes it more difficult,â concedes an official.
The ISI succesfully split both the Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People's Party, Pakistan's two mainstream partys, leaving the elections wide open for the Army's PML-Q puppets, and the MMA fanatics. And that result was no accident, at least until Qazi decided not to play ball.
Clearly, any component party would like to weigh the benefit of staying within the Alliance with any perceived advantage of opting out or taking a unilateral course. âThe split in MMA will remain a pipedream, though it is true they [the government] are trying to divide us,â Qari Mohammad Usman, a JUI leader, told TFT. Asked whether the JUI was ready to give a timeframe to General Musharraf to step down as army chief, Qari Usman said: âThe issue has come up in the meeting with the PML(Q) and we are still awaiting the governmentâs reply. We want to know how much time Musharraf wants and why,â he said. For its part, in one of the recent MMA meetings, the JI has shown itself to be relentless on the issue and wants the alliance to launch an anti-Musharraf campaign.
| Perv's moves to enforce some standards of honesty and competence in members of the National Assembly are anathema to organizations that draw their power from ignorance and graft. Qazi's nightmare is a secular state run with even modest efficiency. Splitting Perv off from the Army â where he still has power â would leave him without any base. He could be quarantined and end his days a figurehead while the Mullahs actually ran things... |
The JIâs view is that while they are ready to support Musharraf as president, they will not allow him to continue in the role of army chief. Sources say the partyâs stance is also owed to General Musharrafâs liberal policies.
I have wondered just who backs who when it concerns the Mullahs, the JUI was always close to the army and worked with them on the Kashmir Jihad and the Taliban project, whereas the JI is more ideological, and although they have historically also worked with the army, they aren't as corrupt. I have a feeling that Hamid Gul might be siding with the later, and the two of them are trying to bring to power a more Islamist general.
| I think that's a real accurate assessment. But keep in mind that Qazi and JI were Hekmatyar's patrons in the Soviet war and that they were soul-mates to the Talibs. They regarded the Talibs' Afghanistan as the prototype of the New Pakland... |
But while the JUI apparently supports the JIâs stance, it has shown interest in the signals emanating from the presidency. Some observers are quite confident that were the government to play its cards right, the JUI could support the move to give General Musharraf at least another two years to continue as army chief. At least one analyst thinks that such a support from JUI might not end up splitting the MMA. âIf the JUI accepts a compromise formula, the JI will have to make a decision about the MMAâs future. I donât think they would like to damage the Alliance. There is too much political capital tied in with its perpetuation,â he says, adding: âIn fact, the two parties might well be playing the game together, one presenting the tough face, the other the softer side.â
| The "softer side" of hard-line Islamism is an interesting concept... |
Basically, some intelligence agencies want to exploit the âdifferencesâ within the MMA, which first emerged on the issue of seat allocations before the elections and later during the formation of governments in the NWFP and Balochistan and the nomination of Leader of the Opposition. Meanwhile, some ground has already been covered in the PML(Q)-MMA negotiations. The MMA, which initially would have none of the LFO, has now come round to accepting the amendments package if General Musharraf were to step down as army chief.
| 'Nother words, they'll take the LFO if Perv will agree to set up the conditions for ditching it later. That's subtle... |
Some PML(Q) leaders think that is no mean achievement. The PML(Q) president, Ch. Shujaat Hussain, recently met with General Musharraf and indicated the MMA is ready to drop resistance to the LFO provided General Musharraf would leave the post of army chief. The General has apparently rejected the idea and asked the government to take on the Alliance even if it means giving concessions to the JUI.
| Proving Perv's no fool. He can play the game just as well as Qazi and probably better than Fazl... |
âIf some kind of understanding is reached between the JUI and [General] Musharraf, the party may be given a major share in the government, including some of those ministries presently with the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians Patriots, PPPPP. Interestingly, the stock of PPPPP-wallahs is likely to plummet if Shujaat Hussain could pull off this coup,â says an analyst. Sources say while the JI now wants the âmillion marchâ formula to now be used as a platform for an anti-Musharraf campaign, the JUI is opposed to it at this stage.
| Qazi gets his jollies from firing up large crowds of shrieking turbans... |
Some sources say General Musharraf may soon invite the JUI chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman for a meeting if he is told the JUI is prepared to bite. But there is one quarter which might oppose the partyâs decision to play ball with General Musharraf: the emotionally charged workers, most of whom have also fought in Afghanistan and are generally considered rabidly anti-US and anti-liberal. Many of them have also been traumatised by General Musharrafâs decision to suddenly change tack and drop the jihad and the jihadis like hot potatoes.
| I think we can all rest assured that if it's happening at all, it's a temporary measure. They're throwing al-Qaeda bones our way, but they're leaving the indigenous jihadis alone. |
However, some observers think that may not pose a major problem if the party can sell the line that it has ended up getting a good deal by going along with the General.
It's hard to be "pragmatic" when the rubes who voted for you actually expect you to follow up on your promises.
Within the MMA, the JI has the support of the Barelvi Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan of Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani. Noorani has also spoken out against the General describing him as a âmudhoshâ (inebriated) army chief who must be replaced by a âhoshwalaâ (sober) chief. Never before has the MMA top brass used such language against the General. Interestingly, some sources say the JI might be taking its cue from some former army generals who are opposed to General Musharrafâs policies and want the MMA leadership to speed up their campaign against the General and continue with their million-march strategy.
| Games within games... The general-wallahs want the fundo-wallahs to overthrow the current strongman, so they can step in and "restore order" and somebody else can get to be the strongman. At which point an entirely new set of alliances and counteralliances is in order. Do you get the impression these people have nothing better to do? The Pak army's never won a war, and the politicians have never actually governed... |
Observers believe that if the government fails to reach an understanding with the MMA or, alternately, split it the political climate could become hot. âThe ruling PML will make another attempt to come to an agreement with the MMA over the LFO. If it fails, [General] Musharraf will be forced to take some âdecisive decisionsâ,â says an insider. |