| Submit your comments on this article |
| Iraq |
| Intelligence Guidance |
| 2003-04-04 |
| found this on Stratfore- No link- need memborship, but found it interesting Intelligence Guidance - April 4, 2003 Apr 04, 2003 - 0530 GMT 1. On the surface, everything appears clear. We've laid out the Battle of Budapest scenario and that seems to be that. But when we start to dwell on things, the clarity fades. The more we look at it, the more it appears that we are missing something very important, something that should be obvious but we don't quite get. 2. There is something odd about the order of battle and operations south of Baghdad. Three divisions are being used. All three have been moving and fighting for about two weeks. It is really hard to believe that these three divisions, along with the Brits and the part of the 4th Infantry that is in country, are all the force that CENTCOM is going to use to take Baghdad. Even a perimeter around the city needs more force, and it is hard to imagine a dynamic war plan culminating in a static constriction. CENTCOM has riveted every eye on the southern approaches to Baghdad -- including Iraqi eyes. There is something here we are missing -- if not a dazzling political coup, then some other units that haven't shown up on any of our maps. There is something more at work here, some other axis of attack we haven't considered. 3. The action in Mosul is equally baffling. The U.S. seems to have nothing up there but Special Forces and the 173rd Airborne brigade that either came from Jordan or Italy, either delivered to the airfield in C-17s or had 1,000 of them do a night drop on an airfield that was in friendly hands. News from up there is both sporadic and contradictory. Nobody seems to be doing anything up there or even to be interested in doing anything up there, but the Air Force is pounding the place. There are a bunch of Iraqi army divisions up around Kirkuk. Is this the Iraqis' last stand? Is Saddam holed up with those troops? Nothing can be as pointless as the northern front appears to be. 4. Syria's behavior and the electric U.S. response are not easily explained. But there appears to be a lot of attention being paid to the Iraqi-Syrian frontier and some unexplained action up in the al Jazeera Desert involving British troops. We need to deepen our understanding of the dynamics with Syria. 5. Remember Rumsfeld saying that we will see a war unlike anything seen before. Ok, Rumsfeld says a lot of things, but this wasn't a throw-away line. It may be far-fetched, but there almost has to be more to this war plan than we are seeing. |
| Posted by:Scott Ross |
| #7 this also from Stratfore, backs up your theory about journalists not being attached to the misisng units- edited Blind Spots and Missing Units Apr 05, 2003 - 0244 GMT Summary Thanks to the military embedding program for journalists, tracking the movements of some U.S. units on the battlefield has been relatively easy. However, it has also meant that large numbers of U.S. troops have dropped off the radar. While this hinders the accuracy of Stratfor's mapping efforts, it could facilitate the unobserved movement of U.S. troops and the achievement of tactical surprise. Analysis Tracking the location of particular units helps us hone our understanding of CENTCOM's chosen strategy. It also alerts us to impending developments on the battlefield. Thanks to the military embedding program for journalists, tracking the movements of some U.S. units on the battlefield has been relatively easy. Geraldo Rivera does not have to draw a map in the sand for us to track units. Journalists are obliged to report at regular intervals, and they report on the activities of the units within which they are embedded. We just connect the dots, making inferences as necessary, and often correcting the misperceptions of disoriented journalists. But as we noted on March 22, the embedding program is meant to do more than assist the media in informing the public about the course of the war. It is meant to distract. It is meant to focus attention on the actions of particular units -- the units with embedded journalists. The decision to embed CNN's Walter Rodgers with the 3rd Squadron, 7th Cavalry, has ensured hours of airtime of the 3rd Infantry Division's race up the Euphrates. But who has been watching the battalions of the 124th Infantry Regiment, or the elements of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, or 2nd Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, that reportedly have been deployed somewhere in theater? But while the media relations aspect of the embedding program has not been everything the Pentagon would have desired, it is still proving useful in limiting knowledge of the battlefield. Large swathes of western Iraq remain invisible, as does the area between Baghdad and the Mosul-Kirkuk line, and southern Iraq east of the Tigris. Action in these areas is only revealed by CENTCOM -- such as the raids on H2 and H3 airfields and the Hadithah Dam, or by foreign news or intelligence sources -- such as the failed British commando operation at Al Bajar. Moreover, embeds provide knowledge of only a limited number of troops. Even units with embeds have been known to disappear for a time, as was the case with the 7th Marine Regiment's secret supply convoy. Until major new units arriving now in theater receive their media embeds, they remain nearly invisible to us as well. Recent embed reports identify the locations of the units listed below. Some of them are a couple of days old, and the units could have moved significant distances in the meantime. And simple comparison of the known movements listed below with our inevitably incomplete and outdated Order of Battle demonstrates just how much we do not know about this battlefield. Even in an era of multi-channel 24-hour media coverage, the fog of war apparently remains sufficiently thick to provide cover and concealment to military plans. Known Recent Battlefield Movements |
| Posted by: scott 2003-04-04 23:46:45 |
| #6 How do you hid a tree? |
| Posted by: Don 2003-04-04 21:41:43 |
| #5 And interestingly, the heavy shelling and bombing of Baghdad tonight is on the Eastern side of town. We've seen the hammer from the South and West. Will we see an anvil appear from the East? |
| Posted by: Parabellum 2003-04-04 19:35:09 |
| #4 One report I heard today( CNN )radio was that special operations personnel have been operating in and around Bahgdad since right after the war started. Spotting targets and who knows what else. When this is all over the stories that will come out about the SF and SAS operatiions are going to be remarkable |
| Posted by: Someone who did NOT vote for William Proxmire 2003-04-04 19:05:24 |
| #3 Interesting article, and it raises my eyebrows a little. So far, two weeks into this war, the Northern Front seems almost an afterthought. We hear little about it- almost too little. Also, there's an assumption I've never seen discussed, something that seems taken for granted: that every significant fighting unit has embedded journalists with it. What if this isn't so? Are there units with no reporters tagging along, doing things we don't hear about, while our attention is misdirected to the units that have the embeds? Interesting... |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2003-04-04 18:53:59 |
| #2 I have to agree with Stratfor, but there's more to it than just "there has to be more to this war plan tha we are seeing". We KNOW the 3ID, the 101st, and the 2MEF are arrayed around the southern edge of Baghdad, from the airport to the eastern edges. They've been moving and fighting for the better part of three weeks now. They had a very short Rest & Replentishment break two days ago. We know elements of the 173rd are in the north, and have captured an airfield. We've had reports that C-17's and C-130's are hitting and turning every 30 minutes - thats 2 an hour, for how many hours? What were they bringing in? Tanks, APC's, food/fuel/equipment? We don't know. We also know that the US has captured H1, H2, and H3. We "assume" they control most of the desert to the west of Baghdad. Either of those three airfields can support C-17, C-130, or even C-5 aircraft. What we don't know is if any of them have actually seen any traffic. We also know that "special operations" units are on the highway west of Baghdad - Australian SAS types. We've had rumors of burned-out busses and other incidents on the road between Baghdad and Jordan, and on the road between Baghdad and Damascus. What force(s) sit on those roads, and how strong are they? We've been told that "special operations" forces have captured the dam northwest of Damascus. Where else are special forces operating? Just how many "special operations" troops does the coalition have, and what are their orders? We haven't a clue, and get brief glimpses before the darkness shuts down again. I have no idea what the battle plan is, but I'm beginning to believe there's a lot more to it than we are now seeing displayed. My only prayer is that there are no major snafus, and this thing is over with, soon! |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2003-04-04 18:48:24 |
| #1 If we simply look at what has been accomplished in the south, it can be easily be said that this is a war unlike anything we've seen - but Stratfore could be on to something. There is almost no news coming out of the north, and we do know that we are pouring men and material in there. Also, the 4th ID has yet to join the fight. This thing is just gettig' warmed up, so one should pay attention when CentCom says there is tough fighting ahead. |
| Posted by: Rex Mundi 2003-04-04 18:29:48 |