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| Iraq |
| Worrywarts Wring Hands over Iraqi Air Force |
| 2003-04-03 |
| Edited for length: No Iraqi warplane has taken off in the face of total American and British air superiority during the 2-week-old war, leading some U.S. generals and analysts to wonder whether they are being readied for a desperate wave of terror attacks. The experts say that if the Iraqis try to fly they are likely to be destroyed, perhaps before they even get into the air. But if a suicide mission got through U.S. defenses, the attack's psychological damage could outweigh any physical casualties. Oh no! We're doomed, doomed I tell you! "We're concerned about any possible use of an airplane to conduct terror," Maj. Gen. Victor Renuart told reporters at Central Command headquarters in Qatar this past weekend. "But . . . I am absolutely 100 percent comfortable that the air component commander has a number of airmen up there who would be ecstatic if one of the Iraqis tried to fly." 1 Kill = 100 Promontion Points At Central Command on Monday, Brig. Gen. Vince Brooks at Central Command was asked why the Iraqis haven't flown so far. "It's as simple as if they fly, they die. . . . If we find them, we'll destroy them. We've destroyed aircraft in cemeteries or near cemeteries. We've destroyed aircraft outside of protected areas. We've destroyed aircraft on the ground," he said. "We've destroyed them in the rain, we've destroyed them on a train" Before the war began, the Iraqi air force had 316 combat aircraft, according to Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, one of the West's leading scholars on the Iraqi military. But only 50 to 60 percent were usable, he said. It isn't clear how many Iraqi planes have been destroyed in the waves of coalition air strikes over the past two weeks. Most of the aircraft, all of the airfields if the satellite photos are correct. Cordesman estimates that Iraqi pilots get 20 hours of flying time a year, less than what Americans get in a slow month. "One alternative is the idea that they are being reserved for one last spasm of near-suicide attacks -- possibly with weapons of mass destruction -- for the battle of Baghdad. No evidence, and pure speculation, but possible," he added. Speculation, and trying like hell to find something to worry about. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #13 I don't know if they'd reach Kuwait, but perhaps Basra or Najaf or one of the northern cities--just one last stab at the Shi'as or the Kurds to remind them Saddam loves them. |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-04-03 17:01:11 |
| #12 I'm with Dar on this. Remember right before the war opened up the Iraqis challenged the no-fly zone a couple times with a Mig-29? I wondered then on Rantburg whether that was a test to see how quickly we could respond to the proverbial bat out of hell. I'd like to think that we've accounted for what's left of the Iraqi air force, but I'm still worried that they might try to run a Mig-29 loaded with whatever WMD is handy towards Kuwait. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2003-04-03 16:35:42 |
| #11 Thanks for the sattellite image, Steve. I was looking and I thought, "Wow. That doesn't look very damaged - just a bunch of little holes," until I saw the plane and realized that each one of those "little holes" was a crater the size of the cockpit or better. Wow. Why'd we leave the plane? |
| Posted by: Tadderly 2003-04-03 15:54:58 |
| #10 Ack--Chuck beat me to the comment. I do remember the mass exodus to Iran--and that Iran kept those planes. |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-04-03 15:00:53 |
| #9 Want to bet the pilot's family is being held at gunpoint? |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-04-03 14:58:59 |
| #8 I agree with Steve. Remember that in Gulf I, practicly the entire air Force up and flew to Iran in one big wave, rather than face us. The only suicides we'll face are those where their families are hostage for their behavior. As has already happened. |
| Posted by: Chuck 2003-04-03 14:57:01 |
| #7 Want to bet as soon as a pilot went wheels up, he'd be calling on the radio trying to surrender? |
| Posted by: Steve 2003-04-03 14:53:56 |
| #6 Maybe "worry" is too strong a verb for what I'm feeling. I just have a suspicion that Saddam and Co. will try something with what's left of their air force akin to Operation Base Plate the Germans did in '45. One last desperate attack to try to get through and disperse chemical weapons before the Coalition can get enough assets in the local area to deal with the threat in time. Like I've said before, it's "use it or lose it" time for Saddam. I wouldn't put it past him to use every means he's got to stay in power. He's on a one-way trip to hell, and he would have no compulsion about sending his pilots on a similar one-way mission. |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-04-03 14:46:05 |
| #5 Well, he ain't using Saddam International Airport, we just took that. Here's a link to a sat picture: Spaceimaging Look at that bomb damage! |
| Posted by: Steve 2003-04-03 14:42:35 |
| #4 I talked to one of the JDAM contractors last weekend. He told me that every intersection on Iraqi airfields has been hit. Kind of hard to get up to take off speed, when there are all these nastyt craters all over the place. |
| Posted by: Doug De Bono 2003-04-03 14:21:14 |
| #3 Considering how effective the Patriot has been against Iraqi missiles and our aircraft (unfortunately), I don't think we have a lot to worry about. Do they have any airfields left under their control at this point? |
| Posted by: pj 2003-04-03 14:20:24 |
| #2 A couple of things to remember, Dar: first, these planes are old and have not had proper maintenance in years, nor have their pilots had much practice flying (if any). Second, the Iraqi's don't have the means to vector them anywhere anymore: about the only way they could find anything to hit would be to take off and roam around until they see something promising. And lastly, if they do try to take off, they're not likely to get much past the end of the runway before something pounces on them. |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2003-04-03 14:18:18 |
| #1 Count me among the "worrywarts". I'm not "trying like hell" to find something to worry about--I'm very happy with the news in recent days--but let's not forget Saddam and his cohorts are ruthless, deperate men who will think nothing of killing a few thousand more than they already have. Until every Iraqi plane and WMD has been accounted for, I'm not celebrating. |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-04-03 13:54:36 |
