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| Iraq |
| Intelligence Guidance |
| 2003-03-27 |
| an interesting memo from Stratfore to it's analysists on about what you are reporting may not be really what is happening and how to avoid that- worth a read- sorry link will not work- need subscription Mar 27, 2003 - 1805 GMT Note to readers: This is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. It is not a forecast but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, with suggestions on areas for focus. We thought it might be of value to our readers, so we are sharing it. The initial assault by the coalition was completed about two days ago. We are now in a consolidation phase that will be marked by relatively few significant operations in the south. You will be seeing the following activities: 1: Resupply 2: Attacks on pockets of resistance 3: Redeployment of forces 4: Active reconnaissance, particularly on the part of the Iraqis, who lack air recon ability. Units will be showing up in different places than you last tracked them. You will hear about fighting in places you thought were pacified days ago. You will hear about supply problems, because these will be filtering back to HQ and will be in the process of being solved. You will possibly be hearing about supply units getting lost and killed in mine fields or in encounters with stray Iraqis. Also, you will be seeing "counterattacks" by Iraqi armored scout vehicles that are out there looking to map U.S. positions. Expect also exfiltration by Iraqis in isolated pockets moving east and north in an attempt to escape and rejoin main Iraqi forces. This process will result in encounter engagements, that will include short, sharp firefights and occasional deployments of helicopters and AFVs depending on size and location. These should not be mistaken for major battles. The major question in the south is what the final deployment of the British units will be. Most of them are in pretty good shape, having seen relatively limited high-intensity fighting and having moved relatively little. They have also been in pretty good supply. There is more than a division of Brits down there -- wherever they go will represent a major axis of effort in the future. There is some evidence of probes under way toward Al Kut or northwest toward the main line of resistance. This is tactical probing of the lines. No major assaults will be carried out until greater force is brought to bear. The Marines will need to have additional armor before assaulting Al Kut, for example. This may be where the Brits go when they finish in the Basra area. One issue will be air strikes. The weather is clear. If there are no massive strikes in the Karbala-Al Hillah-Al Kut area, this will indicate either that there are no major forces in the region, or that there are and no major assault is planned. Watch the air strikes and watch the mix between tac-air and strat-air. The action in the north is in its very early stages. We will likely see a heavy airlift consisting of C-17s and C-130s bringing in troops. The question to look for: Are they bringing in equipment or supplies, or are those on the ground already? No major operations can be expected in that region for several days. Try to figure out what the mission is up there. At this point, the 173rd is providing security for the air fields. Where the follow-on troops go will be the key. Over the next 24 hours, expect to see a large number of media stories with two themes -- the logistics foul-up for the 3rd ID and Marines and that the fighting was much heavier than reported. The former will result from inexperienced reporters who have seen what they think is chaos in resupplying units, coupled with interviews with troops griping about the service. In addition, when interviewing combat soldiers on a badly needed break, griping and heroic bullshit are ancient rites and traditions. Reporters listening to this will conclude that all rear-echelon personnel are hopeless screwups and every engagement was the Battle of the Bulge. With reporters present, the tales will become mighty indeed. Investigate reports with a jaundiced eye. REPORT ANY INFORMATION OF ACTIVITY, REGARDLESS OF HOW SLIGHT, FROM THE DESERT WEST OF THE EUPHRATES BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF BAGHDAD, EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE EUPHRATES FROM KARBALA TO KUWAIT. WATCH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN DESERTS CAREFULLY. |
| Posted by:Scott Ross |
| #5 Yeah, it does seem that everything that heads out west tends to convieniently disappear. What kind of Godzilla force are they forming out there? Enquiring minds... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2003-03-27 22:49:36 |
| #4 I mentioned this 2 days ago when the 101st Div disappeared from the news, along with a brigade of the 82nd Airborne, and all of the 75th Rangers. And nobody has been mentioning H1 since it was captured. Also, the 2nd ACR has disappeared from what I can gather. The 2nd is an experimental unit, in the process of transitioning from light Hummvee to Strikers next year, as they transitioned from Bradleys/M1's to Humvees last decade. They are part of the XVII Airborne Corps and are the designated Cavalry Regiment for that corps- very mobile, very well armed, very agressive and very well trained. Look up the regiment's history against the RG's in the last ware (I was there, part of regimental S2 for the 2ACR). Due to its lght nature, this unit could be airlifted part and parcel with a C17 surge in less than 48 hours. Think "Rat Patrol", except much more well armed, and equipped with a troop (company) of Apaches and a battery of mobile field artillery. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2003-03-27 21:56:06 |
| #3 you may be right Chuck- this just of fof Strafore: U.S. Officials: Coalition Troops Now Control Large Swath Of Western Iraq Mar 28, 2003 - 0236 GMT U.S. special forces -- who have been conducting secret operations in western Iraq -- have taken control of a portion of the west that spans 275 km (170 miles), from the Jordan-Iraq border to the Mudaysis airfield, U.S. military officials claim. The area is mainly unpopulated desert, but it contains a few airfields and locations where coalition officials believe SCUD missiles might be hidden. Also didnt Debka claim something about the 101st coming up the Iraq-Saudi border then turning upsomewhere West of the Karbala |
| Posted by: scott 2003-03-27 20:54:05 |
| #2 Watch Tikrit, hometown of the Big Moustache, his tribe and the source of his political power and most loyal goons. If the bad guys want to hold hostages, the good guys can do the same to Tikrit. First sniff of VX and Tikrit goes poof in a cloud of MOAB fumes. |
| Posted by: elbud 2003-03-27 20:06:04 |
| #1 Look to the West, young man, look to the West. It's quiet, too quiet. 50/50 the Fourth comes charging out of the West. Some of those ships from Turkey ought to be in Kuwait, if that was where they were really going. Any such reports? |
| Posted by: Chuck 2003-03-27 19:15:19 |