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Iraq
Shia Iraqis willing to rise up
2003-02-22
Edited for length
Shia Muslims of southern Iraq will mount an uprising against Saddam Hussein as soon as US and British troops invade, according to travellers reaching Iraqi Kurdistan from government-controlled territory yesterday.
I thought they were headed north, though?
"I think there will be an intifada [uprising] in the towns and villages of the south," said one man, from the Shia holy city of Najaf on the Euphrates. The man, who did not want his name published, had left Najaf, south-west of Baghdad, to escape arrest by Iraqi security men the day before and fled by paying bribes at checkpoints.
Another weak point in Sammy's structure...
The same story was repeated by other travellers reaching Iraqi Kurdistan, which is outside the control of the Iraqi government. "If there is any sign of weakness on the part of the government there will be an uprising," a shopkeeper from Baghdad said.
That means we have to hit Sammy hard the first couple of days. And then get on the radio and tell everyone that Sammy's missing in action.
He expected that the several million Shia Arabs in the capital would rebel in the districts where they predominate such as Al-Thawra, Al-Zaafarania and Al-Shulla. The Shia Arabs of southern Iraq and Baghdad make up at least 55 per cent of the Iraqi population but have traditionally been denied power by the Sunni Arab minority to which President Hussein belongs. After the 1991 Gulf War they rebelled against the Iraqi leader, capturing all of southern Iraq before the uprising was violently crushed.
We should have helped.
We did help, with the no-fly zones. Our foot was in a bucket at the time because of the nature of the coalition — we couldn't enter Iraq to assist them. And we expected the rebellions to succeed. Sammy had actually booked a flight to Algeria when one division decided to back him. Once they did, the others fell in line. I hope division CPs are high on the target list this time.
Kamran Karadaghi, a commentator on Iraqi affairs, said: "I think a rebellion in the south is quite likely because the Shia live in such misery." He said President Saddam's most likely military strategy was to try to defend Baghdad. This would mean stripping southern Iraq of his most loyal units, making it easier for rebels to seize control. Most of the soldiers in the Iraqi regular army are Shia.
If pulls everything back to Baghdad, it can come down to siege warfare. Cut off electricity, cut off water, cut off supplies. Anybody can come out, as long as they're unarmed; nobody can go in.
A rebellion by the Shia would complicate plans by the US for an orderly occupation of Iraq. Earlier in the month, American officials angered representatives of the Iraqi opposition, much of which is Shia and Kurdish, at a meeting in Ankara, Turkey by revealing that America planned a military government for Iraq but would keep in place most of the Sunni establishment that had served President Hussein.
First we'll have to remove all the Baathists.
Shia Iraqis are worried that if they rise up too early before the US is fully committed to a land invasion they will be vulnerable to a government counter-offensive as in 1991. "Many people in Najaf are pessimistic about the chances of American action," said a traveller from the city. At the same time he thought those who had joined the Al-Quds militia, which will be the Iraqi government's first line of defence against an uprising, had done so for money. He said many would switch to the rebels.
The al-Quds militia can pretty much we discounted, I think. The Brownshirts didn't do much in WWII...
Any rebellion is likely to be largely spontaneous. After years of fierce oppression none of the Shia political organisations have the strength to co-ordinate an uprising. "I don't think things will be very well organised," Mr Karadaghi said.
Understatement!
The problem for the US is much the same as it was in 1991 when President Saddam had been defeated in Kuwait and had lost 14 out of Iraq's 18 provinces to Shia and Kurdish rebels. While the US wanted regime change and the Iraqi leader toppled, it did not want revolutionary change. But if democracy was introduced in Iraq, revolutionary change would be inevitable because Shia and Kurds make up three-quarters of the Iraqi population.
Maybe we should just let the Shia and Kurds go their own way, and screw the Sunnis.
Posted by:Steve White

#4  Thue Us will probably not occupy Iraq alone but what matters is the future of Iraq. The only real chance for democratic reform would be to allow Turkey to administer the foreign affairs, and defense policies, with other policies reserved to the Iraqis. This would safeguard Iraq from Iranian ambitions and allow the only democratic moslem nation in the world to reform the mess that is Iraq. Americans will only mess up the political structure of the nation, witness the American decision to free all communists in Germany and Japan following WWII.
Posted by: TJ Jackson   2003-02-22 23:40:42  

#3  A big problem is the vast number of people who have worked for Saddam over the last two decades. Probably 5 million Iraqis have taken money from the security police or fingered dissenters or something of that nature. Probably most of these people did it under duress. About 50,000 - 500,000 have actually participated in torture, murder, rape crimes. I will take at least two years of American supervised judicial procedings to sort this out.
Posted by: mhw   2003-02-22 21:21:50  

#2  Anybody can come out, as long as they're unarmed;
Good idea and I bet it was considered by the military planners. Problem is, Sammy will not allow it. His intention will be to inflict as many civilian casualties as possible. Wouldn't be surprised if he told his most loyal devotees to open up on the civies at some point. After all, you can always find traitors, conspirators, and collaborators amongst the people when you're sick in the head.
Let's hope he pulls an Adolf early on.
Posted by: RW   2003-02-22 12:27:42  

#1  Well, you don't want to screw all the Sunnis, just the Ba'athist. You don't want to create another oppressed people when you are done, because you know damn good and well, it will be the US they blame, not the Kurds nor the Shias. You don't want to play the same game with the roles reversed. You want a new game altogether.
Posted by: Ben   2003-02-22 02:48:18  

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