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| Iraq |
| Chinese get cold feet on Iraq |
| 2003-02-12 |
| Is China about to join the axis of weasels? A phone conversation on Tuesday between French President Jacques Chirac and Chinese President Jiang Zemin has sparked speculation that Beijing is siding with a European push to delay an American-led attack on Iraq. After the phone talk, the Chinese official news agency Xinhua lost no time in issuing a bulletin saying that Mr Jiang had expressed support for the French, German and Russian declaration seeking reinforced United Nations weapons inspections in Iraq, and postponing a decision on military intervention. "We should try all means to avoid war," Mr Jiang was quoted as saying. If China is drifting to support the French position, after long signalling that it would abstain from opposing the US over a military strike, the UN Security Council debate starting on Saturday morning Melbourne time could produce as many as three vetoes from among the five permanent members. With this prospect, the US may then opt to attack Iraq without seeking a second Security Council resolution giving explicit authorisation, and simply claim a mandate flowing from the earlier one combined with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's inadequate response. But the political embarrassment for America's "coalition of the willing" will be deeper, particular for Britain's Tony Blair and Australia's John Howard, who face strong public opposition to intervention without a UN mandate. But who called whom on Tuesday night? The Xinhua report said Mr Chirac called Mr Zemin. But China analysts note that Beijing always reports that such phone calls originate with the foreign party, partly to emphasise China's importance and partly to play down Chinese initiatives in case they go wrong. Up to now it has been widely considered likely that China will go along passively with a US intervention, as it did in 1990 when it abstained from the Security Council vote authorising the Gulf War. Mr Jiang, who steps down as President next month, has invested his prestige in an even relationship with Washington, and made little demurral in his summit meeting with US President George Bush last October. An energy importer, China has a big stake in Iraqi oil, having signed long-term contracts with Baghdad that give it virtual ownership of huge undeveloped oilfields in the country. It would be worried that an irked United States, running the post-Saddam occupation of Iraq, might nullify its contracts. This is the first I have heard about China and Iraqi oil. But the wider Chinese leadership is uneasy at the spectacle of American unilateralism and deliberate regime change, which Washington would be encouraged to apply elsewhere - among its peripheral friends such as North Korea and maybe Burma, if successful in Iraq. The emergence of the French-German-Russian opposition may be giving it a chance to "hide in the crowd" putting a brake on the Americans. The task of deciphering Chinese policy is made even more difficult by the apparent contradictory approach with North Korea. With Iraq, Beijing seeks a solution within the United Nations. With North Korea, it is urging Washington to settle the nuclear weapons issue through direct bilateral talks with Pyongyang rather that through a multilateral approach, as the Americans favour, or by referring the issue to the Security Council. Friday's UN meeting should be interesting. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #4 Predicting what China will do is easy. They will do whatever they perceive to be in their best interests, and make no apologies about it. To anyone. |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-02-12 19:35:49 |
| #3 Chinese are putting clothing factories in Africa. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-02-12 17:21:17 |
| #2 The Chinese know where their butter is. The Chinese govt is floating on a huge trade deficit with the US. The noise about not buying French or German is certainly reaching their ears. They can not afford a widespread boycot of everything made in 'China'. Businessmen will cry, but the smart ones will get the plants up and running in Central America and the Carrib as fast as they can. Once rolling, it will be hard to get them back. |
| Posted by: Don 2003-02-12 11:10:41 |
| #1 China wants to see the USA fall as much as the Islamic world does. But the Chinese are smart enough not to telegraph their intentions. For now they're happy enough to wait and quietly build their strength. But you can count on China to undermine us any chance they get. |
| Posted by: Scooter McGruder 2003-02-12 11:02:49 |