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| Axis of Evil |
| Road to Baghdad Goes Through Tel Aviv |
| 2003-01-06 |
| How DEBKA says the war is going to play out. Large American contingents, airborne and heavy mechanized divisions, Marine task forces, aircraft carriers, helicopter fleets and hospital ships are speeding to jumping-off positions around Baghdad. The US is expected to launch the coming war against Iraq with parachute drops on Baghdad, together with commando landings in the city from the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. More likely helicopter assault A large-scale force will meanwhile encircle the Iraqi capital, while a mighty tank force dashes north from Kuwait and Qatar, bypassing the southern Iraqi Shiite cities of Najef and Karbala and circumventing the Iraqi army defending Baghdad. Those tanks will join the encircling force. Bypass those cities like during the WWII Pacific island hopping, cut them off and wait until they surrender. Which will be two seconds after Sammy's dead. The object of this colossal movement of military strength is to lay Baghdad to siege. This tactic and the consistency of the strength for its execution, DEBKAfile’s military sources report, have been taken from the Israeli doctrine of besieging Palestinian West Bank cities in order to lower the level of terror. For over four months, American military officers have been observing Israeli units at first hand, as they operate against terrorists in Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm, Bethlehem and Ramallah, watching also the IDF method of isolating Yasser Arafat in his Ramallah headquarters. Picking up lessons learned the hardway According to our sources, American military planners are transposing the anti-terror tactics they have witnessed on the West Bank as battle plans for the 101st Airborne Division fighters destined for Baghdad. Israeli tank maneuvers under helicopter cover have been studied in Jenin as a model for the 3rd US division’s M1 Abrams main battle tanks to follow, in the streets of the Iraqi capital. In effect, American war planners have adopted sections of the IDF’s combat strategy against Palestinian terrorist strongholds. This strategy consists essentially of pouring with stunning speed into targeted urban districts large-scale tanks columns armed with heavy firepower, together with armored units under helicopter and drone air cover, as well as crack fighting units, such as paratroops. This onslaught leaves the forces under attack too overwhelmed to put up more than token resistance. They soon discover that any attempt to hit the iron giants roaming their streets results in their firing positions, bunkers or rooftops, being pulverized by the attacker’s superior firepower. This is not going to be a replay of "Blackhawk Down" According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the American strategists were also interested in the second half of the Israeli doctrine, namely the way in which Arafat has been corralled in his Ramallah administration and terror headquarters for more than 10 months, together with 20 to 30 Palestinian terror chieftains who dare not come out from under his protection. US war leaders are planning to use tanks, drones and crack troops in a similar fashion to beleaguer Saddam Hussein, his family and top staff in the palace or bunker in Baghdad or Tikrit in which they are holed up – for as long as it takes. They see no need to break in and capture him, only to wait patiently outside his gates until he surrenders or agrees to leave the country. More likely we'll give him one chance to come out, if he's still breathing, and then drop a bunker buster on him. If it gets that far, no way he gets to leave. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #12 a mighty tank force dashes north from Kuwait and Qatar....Any tank force from Qatar would have to run through Ryhad...I like this plan better all the time! |
| Posted by: john 2003-01-07 12:01:39 |
| #11 The Iraqi defense plans were leaked to al-Ahram (Egypt) last summer (issue 600): www.ahram.org.eg/weekly Saddam plans quick counter attacks, to prevent troop concentrations. I predict a quick Iraqi consensus: why bother? |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-01-07 02:43:14 |
| #10 Debka is like the Mark McGwire of rumors. They strike out alot but when they get hold of one, it is usually a big scoop. I have no idea, not being experienced military, about the linked article. |
| Posted by: Quiet Storm 2003-01-07 01:11:37 |
| #9 I know some people are here are skeptical of DEBKA. I used to be. But lately their track record has been better than almost anybody. Or am I wrong? |
| Posted by: Roger Dodger 2003-01-06 23:21:33 |
| #8 He better not be allowed to walk away or this will be a massive failure. The only place he's allowed to go is to see Allah... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2003-01-06 21:29:07 |
| #7 I remember Norman Schwartzkopf saying that at first he was worried about all the news broadcasters and pundits announcing their speculation about our plans (in Gulf War I), but he relaxed after he heard a few of them and determined that they were so far off base, it wasn't a problem for him. Same here, I betcha. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2003-01-06 19:40:22 |
| #6 "only to wait patiently outside his gates" ...and while they're waiting, Sammy will already be enjoying a cocktail with Qaddafi in Tripoli. Man I hope our military planners are smarter than this. This artcile is bunk. Sounds like the stupidest plan in history. This was an example of what will NOT happen. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-01-06 17:16:32 |
| #5 This is a pretty stupid approach to urban warfare. Cities consume food, they do not produce it. Your average city as 3-5 days worth of food in it. There wont be any red cross resupplying it. Just surround and advertise where to go to surrender. Anyone not leaving cities along the surrender path is a valid target. In a couple weeks, anyone who has not surrender gets marked as "enemy combatant" |
| Posted by: flash91 2003-01-06 20:49:39 |
| #4 WHY are they talking about this? Isn't anyone afraid that discussing all this out loud might give Hussein and the Iraqi Leaderships (or, for that matter, any other enemy or opportunist around)some ideas? Granted, these might be "educated gueses" but still--it makes me VERY uncomfortable hearing people OPENLY and PUBLICLY talk about what's predicted to happen (and almost as uncomfortable hearing such confident expectations that all this will be "easy"; isn't overconfidence supposed to be dangerous?) |
| Posted by: AW 2003-01-06 16:37:21 |
| #3 I always take DEBKA with a jumbo grain of salt. Certainly, it sounds plausible that the US military is studying the successful IDF urban warfare tactics for use in future conflict. However, "pouring with stunning speed into targeted urban districts large-scale tanks columns armed with heavy firepower, together with armored units under helicopter and drone air cover, as well as crack fighting units, such as paratroops" is not exactly an Israeli innovation. Nor is the tactic of surrounding and isolating an enemy. One of the recurring themes of the DEBKA Website is that the Israelis are always way cleverer than the clumsy Americans. This article seems to be little more than a variation on the theme. |
| Posted by: JAB 2003-01-06 16:26:46 |
| #2 Faster, please. |
| Posted by: Scott 2003-01-06 16:26:11 |
| #1 More likely we'll give him one chance to come out, if he's still breathing, and then drop a bunker buster on him. If it gets that far, no way he gets to leave. I'd pay to see that. |
| Posted by: Bashir Gemayel 2003-01-06 16:05:54 |