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| North Africa |
| Fresh Coup Attempt Against Qadhafi Involves Family |
| 2002-12-11 |
| Source: Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily (password required) A serious, although unsuccessful, coup attempt was made against the Libyan leadership of Col. Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi on December 5-6, 2002. Absolutely reliable, first-hand sources confirmed to GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily that widespread arrests occurred beginning December 6, 2002, following the unsuccessful attempt. It was also understood that a number of Qadhafi family members were involved in the attempted coup, which was not only aimed at the ailing Col. Qadhafi — who is now well-advanced in his terminal cancer — but also against his "chosen heir" and son, Saif al-Islam. So Muammar's about to peg out, and the family wants to do the silken cord routine on Saif, because some of the other fruits of the old man's loins want to be in charge... Only thing missing is the Grand Vizier, standing in the background, stroking his beard -Fred... Full specifics of the coup attempt were not available as of late December 11, 2002, other than the fact that there appeared to be a link between the coup and another son of Col. Qadhafi, Dr Moatasam al-Qadhafi, who now lives in exile in Egypt, following a major disagreement with his father. Dr Moatasam, until the beginning of 2002, maintained a militia unit separate from that of Saif al-Islam, but this was forcibly disbanded after the disagreement in early 2002. Several "cousins" within the Qadhafi family were also reported by GIS sources to have been involved. Sources close to Col. Qadhafi said that the Colonel’s response to the coup attempt was "confused", and noted that his health was now deteriorating rapidly. He's knocking at death's door, is he? -Fred This meant that the response to the coup was clearly in the hands of the loyalists within the security apparatus, almost certainly that run by Hannibal al-Qadhafi. It was also understood that some of the coup organizers, apparently mostly within the Gadadfa tribe of Col. Qadhafi, were supportive of another son of Col. Qadhafi, Mohammed al-Qadhafi. Engineer Mohammed, who is from a different mother to Saif al-Islam, Moatasam, Sa’adi, Hannibal and Aisha (whose mother, Safiya, comes from the key Bara’asa tribe, near Beida), is regarded as the most conservative of Qadhafi’s sons, and is understood not to control his own militia. [Hannibal, the youngest son of Qadhafi, does not maintain his own militia, but essentially works directly with Col. Qadhafi, maintaining control over his immediate security.] They expect the old man to keep this stuff straight when he's whacked out on morphine? Sources said that it was possible that support and planning for the coup attempt could have come from Dr Moatasam in favor of a group within the Gadadfa supporting Eng. Mohammed, on the basis that he was the most capable of the Qadhafi children to succeed the Colonel. However, it is known from close family sources that Col. Qadhafi’s wife, Safiya, had, in recent weeks, been lobbying hard to get her brother-in-law, Abdullah Senussi Megrahi, brought back into favor to help support the fortunes of her son, Saif al-Islam, in the succession process. Shouldn't she be a Circassian wench, with fire in her eyes? Or was I thinking of another Oriental fantasy cliche? -Fred It is not known how successful her attempts have been. Abdullah Senussi Megrahi — not a member of the Senusi clan which traditionally has ruled most of Libya — was the head of strategic intelligence before Moussa Koussa. Saif al-Islam had, along with External Security Organization (ESO) chief Moussa Koussa, been working hard to win international support for Saif al-Islam’s succession of the Colonel. Moussa Koussa, largely regarded as one of the Colonel’s "old guard", had clearly thrown in his lot with Saif al-Islam as the most favored successor. "Yar, lad! I served yer paw, an' now I'll serve you! T'gither we'll lop off all their heads! Now, here's me plan..." -Fred Outlook: The Libyan power structure of Col. Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi is collapsing rapidly, with the predicted infighting among Qadhafi family members now erupting openly and the Armed Forces standing by, without supporting either Qadhafi or the fighting family members This could get very ugly before it's over. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #9 Egypt and Libya have had a few battles over the last couple of decades. I think its military has enough stones to intervene if there's enough of a mess. Recall that Egypt has adventured in Yemen and the Sudan (I believe) in the last few decades. The Pharohs do live, a least in the minds of a few. |
| Posted by: Chuck 2002-12-12 08:25:03 |
| #8 funny how a tank shell from the sinai can get to the nile highlands... damn bad shot! plus egypt's already lost the canal once... they might not get it back the second time... |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2002-12-12 01:54:23 |
| #7 You presume too much of the Egyptian Army; recall that it's not entirely blended together and the logistics train for the soviet and US equipment is very difficult to maintain. Also, Egypt isn't capable of causing much trouble viz. Israel because, well, there's that little Aswan High Dam that could just, you know, have an accident... |
| Posted by: Brian 2002-12-11 17:30:18 |
| #6 Qadhafi dies, factions fight over power, lawlessness ensues, refugees flee across border into Egypt, crisis looms, and Pres. Mubarak sends troops in to stabilize the country. Claims U.S. did the same thing in Haiti. Says he will stay until country is ready for free elections. U.S. issues stern protest, sends thank you note. (Egypt tied up in Libya would be too busy to get involved anywhere else) |
| Posted by: Steve 2002-12-11 12:49:13 |
| #5 Let the Algerians military conquer Libya, it'd take a week. Tell them we want war crime trials for the Intelligence agents that planned the Lockerbie bombing and we want low oil prices during conflict in "Arabia". They've done a good job keeping down their militants they deserve a chance to take out Libya. With an oil-rich, well populated neighbor to the West the Egyptians will keep any funny Eastward thoughts to themselves and learn to appreciate the stable border with the Zionist entity. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2002-12-11 12:39:08 |
| #4 Is it time to dust off my Wheelus AFB memorabilia? |
| Posted by: Frank Martin 2002-12-11 12:18:01 |
| #3 Probably none at all. For now, it's a spectator sport. Personally, I'm hoping for large numbers of casualties on both sides, followed by an extended period of anarchy. |
| Posted by: Fred 2002-12-11 11:37:03 |
| #2 so do we have a dog in this fight? |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2002-12-11 11:28:39 |
| #1 Cancer. No wonder he looked like hell in those Miss Networld photos. I mean, more than usual. Geepers, another Hannibal coming out of Africa! |
| Posted by: Chuck 2002-12-11 10:52:26 |