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| Axis of Evil |
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| 2002-08-30 |
Occam's Toothbrush points to this Michael Rubin article on the Iraqi forces in TNR with the comment thatMichael Rubin, who spent 9 months in northern Iraq, has some news for the skeptics; war with Iraq will be easy.Bite your tongue! Bite it again, harder! NEVER say such a thing! Saying such things is the absolute surest way to cause God to set up circumstances which will result in us not only being bitten in the National Ass, but gnawed. The circumstances may or may not involve the Iraqi army, or even Sammy. I can agree with the premise that the Former Fourth Largest Army in the World ain't what she used to be. But just sitting here smoking my pipe, I can think of at a few scenarios that're chock full of snakes: what if, while we're merrily beating the hell out of the Elite Republican Guard™ the Medes and Persians are invading the Kurdish territories? Don't like that one? How about a Hezbollah attack into northern Israel, causing Israel to begin kicking the snot out of Syria, thereby disrupting our Persian Gulf supply lines as shakey allies become indignant? How about the use of gas against our troops? Any idea how living in chem gear degrades combat effectiveness? Sammy doesn't care if a bunch of his people get waxed, and it doesn't take the combined might of the Hammurabi and Tawakalna divisions to deliver chem weapons — you can use artillery, mines, SCUDs or the shorter-range FROG, if it's still around. How about if he succeeds in inserting agents into the U.S. this time? He tried to assassinate Bush, Sr., so he'll probably make a try at G.W. Failing that, what if he attacks Jordan? Or Turkey? Or Kuwait? Any military commander who does not assume that the enemy is willing and able to do terrible things to his force won't be trying to figure what those terrible things are and take countermeasures. It's a fundamental law of military operations that nothing ever goes as planned — just ask Sammy. If you don't believe him, hunt up General Westmoreland and ask him. Or Napoleon. He was going to deal with that "Sepoy General" at Waterloo. There ain't no sech animal as an "easy" military operation. "Plan for the worst, hope for the best." |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #1 Of course the comments are glib and facetious, however the worst-case-scenarios you present aren't that bad. For example, the invasion of Kurdistan by Iran. While seeming illogical (wouldn't they go for the Shi'a south?), the extension of Iranian supp ly lines would be a very fun thing to watch/bomb (a la the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, you can only go so far with a Soviet logistics system). The Hezbollah attacks you predicted are happening but with infrequent regularity; an interview with the Israeli Chief of Staff dismisses Hizbollah and says Israel is ready to deal with such a contingency. Shakey allies...come on man! We know damn well the Soddies are unreliable. It's a question of do they wish to tangle with our force in theatre? I do believe that the Royal Saudi Navy would not like to tangle with a carrier fleet, I do believe that the Egyptians would make a terrible mistake (as in they lose the canal and the Sinai) if they close the Suez. The Chem attack we must, sadly, assume as an inevitable factor. We can't wish it away and we have to assume that we will be attacked in some degree by the Iraqi forces. As for the insertion of agents into the US, you are portraying a scenario of escalation which has one answer. Our stated policy for a WMD attack on this nation is a reprisal using...another form of WMD that will not be mentioned. I do believe that is crystal clear, to every nation who has pretentions to the situation, that to get in front of the juggernaut of our armed forces is a terrible (radioactive) mistake. I believe that we have, at least theoretically addressed, the sum of all worst-case-scenarios planned out in a vault in Macdill Air Force Base. However, I have every confidence that years of training and the brilliance, resourcefulness (and overwhelming firepower) of the American military will make this war (if it happens) much easier then we all fear. We have planned for the worst, we shall hope for the best, but we will have all the aces in our hands, as former General Chuck Horner said. |
| Posted by: Brian 2002-08-30 23:31:35 |