| Submit your comments on this article |
| Afghanistan |
| News from the Other Side: The Plot Sickens |
| 2002-04-08 |
Oruzgan is the One-eyed Mullah's home. I haven't been able to find the original of this article. From internal evidence, I'd guess it's from one of the Pak papers. This approach shows that the Taliban are aware that they cannot single-handedly raise any significant opposition, and that considering the new political map in the country, they are now prepared to join with local commanders and tribal chiefs to wage war against foreign troops and the interim administration of Hamid Karzai. Translation: They've actually been beaten, and to make a comeback they've got to ally with other parties and hope to turn on them successfully when the common enemy's gone. The sources also suggest that lines of communication are being established between leaders of the Northern Alliance, including Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani, Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf, General Mohammed Fahim and Mullah Omar and former Taliban minister Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani (Haqqani is said to have been injured in the bombing in Gardez.) The Taliban reportedly have sent messages to the Northern Alliance leaders urging them to forget all past differences... and join hands to oust US troops from the country. Rabbani's been sour-graping since Karzai was named interim PM instead of naming him interim president. His reluctance to drop the reins of power (such as it was) gave Hekmatyar the excuse he needed to start the Dog-Eat-Dog and shell Kabul. Sayyaf is the Saudis man on the ground, leader of a tiny Wahhabi faction. Fahim's the defense minister and trying to be Masood's successor, without being able to wear that size shoe. Haqqani is the Great Taliban Hope at the moment. Nice to hear he was wounded. Hope it was painful and infected. There was a report he was wounded and maybe dead back in December, too. This is said to be the first time since the emergence of the Taliban as a power in 1996 that Mullah Omar has shown any flexibility in his attitude towards the Northern Alliance, but clearly he has struck while the iron is hot to extend the hand of "friendship". Rabbani and Sayyaf were the most important resistance leaders during the Soviet invasion that ended in 1992, but in the current political situation in Afghanistan they have been left out in the cold. Although Fahim is the defense minister, the presence of foreign troops in the country - to which he is opposed - leaves him with little real authority on important defense issues. Even Afghans wouldn't find Mullah Omar's "friendship" the most reliable thing they've ever seen... At the same time, the Northern Alliance leaders realize that support for former monarch Zahir Shah is widespread and growing at all levels - and that these supporters are largely more reliable and pro-West than any other faction in the country. Ah, introducing that outside factor is viewed as a danger to the internal balance of power, is it? Leaders such as Rabbani and Sayyaf, who live in Kabul where they attempt to play the role of "fixers" by exploiting what access they have into the corridors of power, will be sharply shown that their support among the warlords is limited. Zahir Shah is still loved and respected among Afghans, irrespective of ethnic affiliations, and they are expected to demonstrate this support by flooding into Kabul. Toldja that Loya Jirga would have to be disrupted. But being too overt about it could lead to Unfortunate Accidents. It's happened before, and to better men than either of them. The day that the former monarch steps into Afghanistan he will become an unequivocal "Afghan elder". In this capacity, as is the Afghan tradition, he will play a key role in the loya jirga (grand council) that is to meet to map out a more permanent political future for the country. Rabbani and Sayyaf, as well as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a premier during the days of the Afghan communist regime in Kabul, have branded such a council as un-Islamic. There is little chance, therefore, of Northern Alliance people having any significant representation at the council, as pro-Zahir Shah elements, whether they be Pashtun or not, will rule the roost in Afghan politics. But the pro-Zahir Shah faction isn't strong enough to take power itself. That means it has to ally with existing internal parties, which would certainly involve Northern Alliance factions - just not Sayyaf's and Rabbani's, and certainly not Hekmatyar's. The "un-Islamic" brand is worthless on its face, even to Deobandi Muslims. Many people loyal to the former king live in exile in Europe and America. They are generally wealthy and educated, and in good positions to influence events against the likes of Rabbani and Sayyaf. The latter, as well as Fahim, will have little option, then, if they want to have any influence, but to ally with Mullah Omar either overtly or covertly. Actually they could also ally with the Royalist party. Alternatively, they could ally with each other and form a "loyal opposition." (Excuse me while I wipe my nose. I was drinking coffee when I wrote that.) I'm not an Afghan, but to me it would seem that allying with the Talibs, who would then be guaranteed to turn on me if they ever achieved power again, would be at the bottom of the list of desirable actions. Sources say that under the command of Mullah Saifullah Mansoor, the mastermind of on-going fighting around Gardez, small groups will remain hidden in the mountainous terrain around Shahi Kot and Zurmat. In the past week these groups have launched scores of hit-and-run operations against US and allied troops. So far to little effect... Taliban sources claim that they have captured several US soldiers, whom they have detained in caves in the area. They are said to be prepared to negotiate conditions for the release of these prisoners. Not a very believable claim. This was first advanced by Taliban-news.com in the wake of Shah-i-Kot, and was subsequently put out by Gen. Hamid Gul. These aren't the most reliable of sources. Taliban sources have also confirmed that al-Qaeda and the Taliban have sustained heavy casualties as a result of the US bombing in Operation Anaconda, but they have reinforced their positions with both men and ammunition through the support of tribes and local commanders in the area. We could tell they were taking heavy casualties. It was a cute trick to drag most of the bodies away to wherever they went. It doesn't mean anything, though. They're just as dead, regardless of where they are. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |