At the end of 2011, in an article on this site titled "Maybe that war with China isn't so far off after all", I drew that gloomy conclusion because the United States, thanks to the justifications, excuses, and pretexts surrounding its desire to "pivot to Asia", had created the doctrinal and public relations justification and institutional incentives for military hostilities with the PRC.
The slowly developing pivot has certainly created problems for the People's Republic in 2013, energizing its antagonists, marginalizing its supporters, and turning China's search for advantage in its East Asian environment into a grinding, costly slog, marked by incessant friction between Japan and China, the escalating defiance of the Philippines, and the alarming emergence of India as Japan's explicit security partner.
Despite talk of a "new model" of US-China relations, the new regime of Xi Jinping has not hit many of the conciliatory marks that the United States pointedly set for it (and, in the case of Syria, its resistance to the Obama administration's policies have been rather clearly vindicated).
In East Asia, China continues to claim objectionable security prerogatives, particularly in its maritime zone. Western elite opinion is set against the country as an assertive, uncooperative, and disturbing force - witness the media uproar against the PRC for failing to supply the level of typhoon aid to the Philippines that might validate China's legitimacy as a benign regional power, at least in the eyes of the West - and the outlook for 2014 is more complaints and more coercion.
Increasingly, this attitude manifests itself as the assertion in the Western public sphere that US relations with the PRC are veering from the model of peaceful competition to an existential good versus evil cage match. This is demonstrably not the opinion in PRC pundit-land, nor does it seem to be the case when considering the actual application of US pivot policy. In fact, a closer reading of the events of 2013 imply that there are more pressing and productive priorities for the US in Asia than teeing up World War III.
#1
I disagree - the situation in NE or East Asia vee China comntinues to move in the direction of continuing escalation + possible military China-led, China-centric military conflict(s), of which the China-Japan crisis is the most high-profile but in reality is only one of several that could easily occur.
Unfortunately for the Artic's author, there is nothing he has described that was also not present during China's past military incidents agz its neigbors - IT WHAT MAKES CHINA'S NEHAVIOR SO SHOCKING ONCE THE SHOOTING = COMBAT BEGINS.
Iff Maha-Rushian histoire' is any measure, Bammer Washington isn't going to realize China's game until AFTER the shooting begins + China prevails, NOT BEFORE. The US-Allies + UNO were times caught off-guard by China's military response in the past, + IMO is more likely than not to be so again.
Again, CHINA wants what the Superpower USA, USSR, UK, + other preceding Great Powers had + that is OVERSEAS MILBASES FOR THE PROJECTION, DEFENSE OF TRADE + MILPOL POWER.
For the author to be correct, one must believe that China can just put aside or amend its self- perceived or desired "Manifest Destiny", + allow Japan, etal, to take its place + rise to become the new"post-US" World #1 in lieu of China, or in alternate a new Global Polity more potent or influential than China in world affairs. THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE.
* FYI CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Japan Times] ABE SAYS ITS TIME TO REVAMP [Japan's] PACIFIST CONSTITUTION, by 2020.
ARTIC > JAPAN PM ABE = supports the "complete restoration" of Japan's status as a major player or contributor to world affairs.
VERSUS
* BIGNEWSNETWORK > [The Province] JAPAN RISKS WORLD PEACE AGAIN, CLAIMS CHINA.
China will NOT Japan to rewrite history nor restore its status as a AGGRESSIVE WORLD MILITARY POWER
* RELATED SAME > [Global Times] CHINA CAN [unilaterally?] UPHOLD POSTWAR VERDICT ON JAPAN.
* SAME > [West Australian = AFP] CHINA MULLS REVAMPING MILITARY REGIONS [7 ea. PLA MRS into 5]: JAPAN REPORT [Yomiuri Shimbun], to improve its military response or capabilities in case of military crisis agz Japan.
* PRAVDA > CELESTIAL EMPIRE [China] WILL NOT LET THE US BACK IN ASIA.
* DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > JAPAN SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE PLA: EXPERT [Buntan Karo].
ARTIC > PERT KARO = believes Japan + SDF can win agz China + PLA iff Sino-Japan mil conflict confinced or isolated to only the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands + maybe Okinawa proper - PROB OF JAPAN VICTORY IS REDUCED IFF COMBAT SPREADS TO REST OF RYUKYU/OKINAWA RCHIPELAGO
+ BEYOND.
IOW, SCOPE = IT COULD BE HIGHLY ADVANTAGIOUS FOR CHINA + PLA TO NOT LIMIT ANY COMBAT TO ONLY THE DISPUTED ISLANDS OR ARCHIPELAGO - THE LARGER THE THEATER(S) OF [Regional]CONFLICT THE GREATER THE PROB OF ULTIMATE/FINAL CHINESE VICTORY???
And that's NOT counting The-US-can't-go-to-War-anymore-becuz-we-can't afford-it, alleged Marxist-Anarchist-Globalist POTUS Obama + aligned pro-OWG-NWO, pro-"Co-Superpower", anti-US Globalists.
ANTI-AMERICAN AMERIKAN GLOBALISTS ARE IN CHARGE OF THE US MIL RESPONSE ANYWHERE + EVERYWHERE, ETC. NOT AMERICANS.
Well, we could start by unilaterally cancelling our indebtedness to China. Then we could stop letting them sell their plastic crap in our country. I know. I know. That would take a president and congress critters who have some balls. But that would be a serious shot across China's bow.
As for the Japanese, my guess is Abe's call to revamp it's pacifist, post-WWII constitution is a response to perceived American weakness.
Japs will fold? I wouldn't bet on it. I think Abe's recent visit to Yasukuni was a deliberate thumbing of his nose in the direction of China.
#6
Japan islands would be a tough fight for little terrain. Same with the Phills.
I expect a move for China to begin stabilization of NK to the north by exporting them as muscle like the Caribs do with Jamaicans and 'trading partner' occupation of Indo/Mala/Suma/Java to the south to alleviate some of the poverty as well as export their muslims. Also look for a non-intervention treaty with AU that includes help with constraining the AU north coast illegal immigration problem. This gives them a two hemisphere barrier to intervention in SE/C/SW Asia influence from the Pacific.
#8
This is a soapbox for me and one reason I pay attention.
I can't forget,
AttorneyGeneral Reno says she has not seen any evidence of China trying to influence the Clinton administration to export military technology.
In November 1993, on the eve of the first Sino/American summit since the Tienneman square massacre, NSA Director Adm. McConnell approved approved China's long standing request to buy a super high technology computer, supposedly for exclusively non military use. Since then the PRC has taken possession of at least 46 super computers.
Maybe not China nor 2014. Or the US vs. But it's hard to see how the World can emerge from this malaise without a major war effort. So many players at bat. Vacuums need to be filled. God bless. More hostilities are on horizon; it seems to me unprecedented that they would not be.
#11
I fear the Obama administration will try to be "sophisticated" and "balanced", and as a result will give Japan or the Philippines the message they'll stand behind them and China the message they'll stay out of any "territorial disputes". Rather like Gillespie did with Saddam.
The administration will be patting themselves on the backs on their "triangulation for peace" even after the shooting starts and our allies are screaming for help.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
01/02/2014 23:01 Comments ||
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[DAWN] IT has been over four weeks now since the NATO ...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A cautionary tale of cost-benefit analysis.... ground supply line through the Torkham border was blocked. The Pakistain Tehrik-e-Insaf ...a political party in Pakistan. PTI was founded by former Pakistani cricket captain and philanthropist Imran Khan. The party's slogan is Justice, Humanity and Self Esteem, each of which is open to widely divergent interpretations.... has declared it a tactical victory for its anti-drone campaign. Yet, last week a drone strike in North Wazoo reportedly killed four krazed killers.
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Posted by: Fred ||
01/02/2014 00:00 ||
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Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
[DAWN] 2013 was an exciting year for Pakistain. Apart from once again witnessing the usual and trivial episodes like terrorist attacks, discrimination and violence against Shias and Ahmadis, killing of polio ...Poliomyelitis is a disease caused by infection with the poliovirus. Between 1840 and the 1950s, polio was a worldwide epidemic. Since the development of polio vaccines the disease has been largely wiped out in the civilized world. However, since the vaccine is known to make Moslem pee-pees shrink and renders females sterile, bookish, and unsubmissive it is not widely used by the turban and automatic weapons set... workers and other such non-issues, we were lucky to witness some truly grand events as well.
First, allow me to waste some space here about one such trivial matter, that of terrorism. But rest assured, there were some non-trivial developments in this respect in 2013 that must be commended.
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Posted by: Fred ||
01/02/2014 00:00 ||
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#1
the country suffered a major blow to its desire to talk peace with the suspected Death Eaters and exchange views with them on the art of growing really long beards
Whoops - for a second I thought he was talking about a particular GQ interview.
[Ynet] US secretary of state is determined to end Mideast conflict. What if he succeeds?
US Secretary of State John F. I was in Vietnam, you know Kerry Former Senator-for-Life from Massachussetts, self-defined war hero, speaker of French, owner of a lucky hat, conqueror of Cambodia, and current Secretary of State... has lost his mind: He appears to be completely serious about getting both sides, the Israeli and the Paleostinian, to sign some kind of interim and temporary deal, which should eventually lead to reconciliation and agreement between the two people. John Kerry has gone mad: He wants to succeed where his dozen predecessors, governments and countries have failed.
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#4
There is only one formula for having peace in Midele East: cutting all aid to the Palestinians. In fact I would even demand a refund of the sid they have received since 1948 (sixty five years and counting) since it was given for development and they have spent it for Jihad.
The fact is: Palestinians have zero interest in making peace because they know we will feed and cloth them. They can spend the whole day scratching their b..s or building Kassams and know they will be able to eat that day. Eat far better than many subsaharians. They know that when Israel takes action against their acts of warfare we will rebuild everything Israel has destroyed and more. So why would they make peace? Why would they stop indoctrinating their children for finishing Hitler's work? They simply have no reason for it.
Now. Are the Hindus expelled by the Pakistanis still in refugee camps? The Grek Cypriots expelled by the Trurks? The Poles expelled by the Russians after WWII and the Germans expelled by the Poles? No! All of them are having productive lives instead of trying to place bombs in maternities.
\sarcasm_on Oh and in case the Palestinians really end in duress I am suuuuuuure oil-rich Arab countries will gladly accept to skip installing air-conditionning in their harms in order to save money for their Palestinian brotrhers \sarcasm_off.
#5
Well said, JFM. But I fear the only thing that will come out of Kerry's shuttle diplomacy (haven't heard that term in a while!)will be even more aid to the Paleos.
Posted by: Bobby ||
01/02/2014 7:36 Comments ||
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#6
Many more like Kerry will come:
In those days, august institutions such as EPA and OSHA were not around to provide the benighted with sage advice on what to produce, and what not to produce. We probably will never be in a position to make that same mistake again. We have been redeemed, enlightened, and protected from our innate ignorance and stupidity, by a self-anointed elite claiming a higher and purer form of wisdom.
Well his body ain't worth squat and he has never had a soul so nothing will come of this other than pain, frustration and misery for Israelis, Paleos and Americans....kinda like all the output of Obastards regime.
#9
Now let's not start in with that is zero a number again. We all know he doesn't have a mind, just and empty void.
As for the Paleos, kill every single one of them on a Fatah, Hamas, whatever membership list. They resigned from the human race, we should oblige their plea for leaving the gene pool
#13
He helped sell 28 or so million people into serfdom back in the 70's but everyone's so surprised when he turns around and does something like this.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Wazoo
[DAWN] 2013 was an exciting year for Pakistain. Apart from once again witnessing the usual and trivial episodes like terrorist attacks, discrimination and violence against Shias and Ahmadis, killing of 
[Ynet] US secretary of state is determined to end Mideast conflict. What if he succeeds?
